Week 2, 2011: Cowboys vs 49ers by EvenMoney

Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers is a major test for both teams and has playoff implications. Yes, this early in the season! The NFC East will send two teams and the NFC West will only send one. A win over Dallas puts the Niners on pace for at least a 9-win season, which should be enough to win the NFC West.

Contrast that to Dallas which needs at least 10 wins to even think of claiming a Wild Card spot. The Cowboys tossed away a win in the final minutes in Week 1 against the Jets. They showed an ability to pass the ball with Tony Romo going for 342 yard on 64% completion. For the most part, the Cowboys handled the Jets’ various blitz packages, including on 3^rd & long.

HIGHLIGHTS - Dallas Cowboys vs New York Jets Week 1, 2011

The Cowboys defense played well. They stifled the Jets’ run game and matched the Jets’ 4 sacks. Dallas lost the game on penalties, turnovers and Special Teams.

On the other side of the field, they will face a 49ers team that had an impressive defensive outing against the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks won the NFC West in 2010 but with only a 7-9 record, which demonstrates why this division is there for the taking and will likely only send one team to the playoffs.

Courtesy of frostwd

For the 49ers, QuarterBack Alex Smith had an efficient outing where he completed 75% of his 20 passes. The defense set the pace early by holding the Seahawks scoreless for the first half, as the Niners went on to lead 16-0 at the half. And, the Special Teams converted on two big plays (kick and put returns) for touchdowns to squelch a Seahawks comeback with the score at 19-17.

HIGHLIGHTS - San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks Week 1, 2011

Picking this game is about determining the quality of opponent that the 49ers faced last week. Dallas showed they could control the ball and pass against a highly-touted Jets defense. Both teams have to answer these questions:

***Since neither team showed a running game in Week 1, can both QBs maintain their efficiency?

***Or, will Special Teams once again play a major role?

NFL PICKS Week 2

Cowboys (-3) Over (42) – Felix Jones will establish himself, as Dallas dominates time of possession.

9/18 4:05 ET Dallas -3 At San Francisco 42

http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_lines.shtml @09/17/11 @ 9:40pm

Week 1, 2011: Bucs vs Lions by EvenMoney

Detroit Lions @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers might be the most important game this opening week of the NFL season! Think about it: Bucs went 10-6 last season. They did so against a very soft schedule, while going 2-5 against playoff teams. What it proved is that they were “better” than 8 teams.

Contrast that to the Lions who showed nothing throughout the season and then won their last 4 games, to finish 6-10. One of those wins came against the Bucs, as the latter was in the midst of a playoff chase, which they failed to make.

Simply put, the Detroit Lions are the new Tampa Bay Buccaneers – both are the only two NFL teams to experience winless seasons; Lions in 2008, and Bucs in 1976.

Whereas Tampa Bay has won a Super Bowl (XXXVII; 2002 season) after years of ineptitude, Detroit garnered respectable seasons, until Barry Sanders retired in 1999 and the following season. 

Courtesy of elsharkdelocho


Once the franchise hired Matt Millen in 2001, it went into a tailspin that paralleled Detroit’s economy and resembled an expansion franchise – the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Coaching hires (Tony Dungy and Raheem Morris) have been the lynchpin for both of the Bucs’ recoveries; and Detroit seems to be patterning that fact, with Jim Schwartz.

Once we get past the history, we have to look at the key players and team strengths. The Lions have a middle of the road schedule wherein they should win 8 games, not counting this first game. Though 9 wins might not be enough to get into the playoffs, it would be a great next step for the Lions.

On both sides of the ball, the running game will be the big question mark for the Lions. Last year, they had a capable QB/Receiver tandem in Shaun Hill/Calvin Johnson, and capable backups (Stanton and Stafford). This year Matthew Stafford is expected to be the starter.

For the Bucs, it mainly comes down to Josh Freeman’s arm and health, as they have no capable, better yet battletested backup QBs. 


 courtesy of jjesse1978


The Bucs can beat a team with either passing or running the ball, but it will come down to their defense and these questions.

·         Can the Bucs’ passing defense rattle Stafford and bring about interceptions?

·         Can the Bucs’ defense stop the Lions’ mediocre running game?

NFL PICKS Week 1

Lions (+1.5) Over (41) – The Bucs’ schedule indicates they will win 8 or 9 games, counting this game.

9/11 1:00 ET At Tampa Bay -1.5 Detroit 41

http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_lines.shtml @09/1/11 @ 12:50am

EvenMoney’s 2011 NBA Draft Big Board

We put together the 60 players we feel will be drafted. The players are listed with a Draft Range – high to low – as to where we feel they will be picked and/or their true value based on our model and its 4 metrics.

Our Big Board does not account for players who did not play at a NCAA college this past season, but our Mock Draft will! This means up to 10 players might get knocked off the Big Board by International Players.

The 3 players our model couldn't measure but who are being talked up as lottery selections or (at least) first rounders!  Bust or Studs?  (In RED)

EvenMoney’s NBA Draft 2011 – Top 5 Centers, #5

#5 – Greg Smith

Greg Smith brings exceptional athleticism and an all-around game to balance out his raw offensive game. The additional drawback is that he barely reaches the height/weight requirement to play Center in the NBA.

Smith contributes the most off the ball via Assists, Steals and Blocks. He does have to improve his Rebounding and would be great for an uptempo team looking for a hybrid Center/Power Forward. Still not convinced? Ponder the stats below and press play!

Video courtesy of TheDraftReview

C	Greg Smith
	BPM		PCM	DIR	TPA
Rank	45.13	55.00		36.25	46.00

Out of 138 players:

·        Greg Smith is an across the board second-round pick in all of the 4 metrics. Though this signifies the lack of depth for Centers coming out of the colleges, Smith has the chance to help many teams.

·        We project him to be picked in the second round – the early 50’s.

·        Considered as a whole (BPM), as well as for each specialty (PCM for Production; DIR for Defense; and TPA (Talent/Skill-set).

EvenMoney’s NBA Draft 2011 – Top 5 Centers, #4

#4 – Jordan Williams

Jordan Williams has just about the size - listed as 6’9” and 250 (to 260) pounds - and athleticism to play Center in the NBA. Since he does not possess great offensive polish, though he scored double digits in college, the areas in which he surpassed collegiate expectations will not play out in the NBA.

We expect his production to go down by nearly 50 percent. Though he does have strength and youthfulness on his side, the nearly 17 points and 12 rebounds this past season will not translate. Still not convinced? Ponder the stats below and press play!

Video courtesy of jonathantjarks

C	Jordan Williams
	BPM		PCM	DIR	TPA
Rank	33.33	11.00		41.50	53.00

Out of 138 players:

·        Jordan Williams is a first-round pick in only one of the 4 metrics, the one that measures overall production.  We don’t foresee him having the opportunity to log enough minutes and/or possessions to achieve those numbers.

·        We project him to be picked in the second round - an average of his defense and skill-set -– 47 or so.

·        Considered as a whole (BPM), as well as for each specialty (PCM for Production; DIR for Defense; and TPA (Talent/Skill-set).

EvenMoney’s NBA Draft 2011 – Top 5 Centers, #3

#3 – Josh Harrellson

Josh Harrellson is listed as 6’10” and 275 pounds, which, in this draft, negates the fact that neither his offensive nor defensive numbers jump out at you. He’s a player that will come off the bench to spell a team’s key players, give out some fouls while blocking the paint.

Harrellson did not play much his previous two seasons but when given the opportunity this past season, he made the most of it by blocking some shots and making a few steals. Still not convinced? Ponder the stats below and press play!

Video courtesy of tjbeisner

C	Josh Harrellson
	BPM		PCM		DIR	TPA
Rank	53.00	54.00		20.25		111.00

 Out of 138 players:

·        JoshHarrellson is a first-round pick in only one of the 4 metrics, the one that measures defensive integrity.

·        We project him as a late second round pick, near the end of the draft.

·        Considered as a whole (BPM), as well as for each specialty (PCM for Production; DIR for Defense; and TPA (Talent/Skill-set).

EvenMoney’s NBA Draft 2011 – Top 5 Centers, #2

#2 – Keith Benson

Keith Benson is a gamble that a contending team can take, or a project player for a rebuilding team. Though he has the height to play Center in the NBA, he is slight of frame and needs to pack on 30+ pounds.

At first, he will mainly be a weak-side defender who will struggle in the post,  but he is agile enough to pair with a lumbering Power Forward. Or does a team play him as the PF on defense?

Benson has enough offensive ability to match his defensive identity but it really is a question of fit.  Benson blocked 127 shots but unfortunately he played at a small basketball school and a lower-tiered conference.

Still not convinced? Ponder the stats below and press play!

Video courtesy of KitoB34

C	Keith Benson
	BPM		PCM	DIR	TPA
Rank	11.99	2.67		1.75	45.00

 Out of 138 players:

·        Keith Benson is a first-round pick in 3 of the 4 metrics – lottery. Once you factor in that he played at Oakland University and his lack of bulk, how much of a drop is he?

·        We feel he is worth a gamble for perennial lower-tiered playoff team, anywhere from pick 23 to 30.

·        Considered as a whole (BPM), as well as for each specialty (PCM for Production; DIR for Defense; and TPA (Talent/Skill-set).

EvenMoney’s NBA Draft 2011 – Top 5 Centers, #1

#1 – Nikola Vucevic

A college Center is not automatically a NBA Center, primarily because of size (height/weight). After that we factor in skill-set - advantages and limitations. This particular draft year, there is no one dominant Center coming out of the colleges. Each of our ranked Centers has one requirement and, with some luck, the chance to develop a second requirement needed to be an effective NBA Center.

Vucevic is the type of Center to pair with a dominant Power Forward who can cover his defensive limitations. He is a seven-footer, with good shooting touch and ball-handling skills, enough to help facilitate an offense in the high post.

Still not convinced? Ponder the stats below and press play!

Video courtesy of DC4judicial

C	Nikola Vucevic
	BPM		PCM	DIR	TPA
Rank	39.48	17.00		52.25	51.00

Out of 138 players:

·        Nikola Vucevic is a first-round pick in only 1 of the 4 metrics, the one that measures overall production. Our projection is first round from 17 to 25.

·        He has the size and the skill to be a solid pro.

·        Considered as a whole (BPM), as well as for each specialty (PCM for Production; DIR for Defense; and TPA (Talent/Skill-set).

EvenMoney’s NBA Draft 2011 – Top 10 Power Forwards, #10

#10 – Jerai Grant (or) Tristan Thompson (or) Papa Dia

Jerai Grant, Tristan Thompson and Papa Dia are players a team drafts for defense and hopes their offense catches up. Though Dia has the more polished offensive game, upside and previous level of competition night in, night out are our big questions.

For Jerai, the question is whether he has maxed out his potential since he is a senior. What he provides now does give him a role on a team’s bench but not much more.

Tristan has question marks regarding his offense – lack of range, inefficiency, poor Free Throw shooting, he is leaving school as a Freshman with the same defensive skill-set as the other two.

Still not convinced? Ponder the stats below and press play!

Video courtesy of lordseal92

Video courtesy of CityLeagueHoopsTV

Video courtesy of SMUMustangsAthletics

PF	Jerai Grant
	BPM	PCM	DIR	TAP
Rank	25.66	36.33	9.25	39.00

PF	Tristan Thompson
	BPM	PCM	DIR	TAP
Rank	33.46	43.00	8.00	65.00

PF	Papa Dia
	BPM	PCM	DIR	TAP
Rank	19.42	10.67	15.00	41.00

Out of 138 players:

·       Jerai Grant, Tristan Thompson and Papa Dia are second round picks – early 30’s, unless a team gambles.

·    Tristan might be that gamble because he is younger, or it could be Dia because of of his offensive game, that features rage out to 20 feet.

·     Considered as a whole (BPM), as well as for each specialty (PCM for Production; DIR for Defense; and TPA (Talent/Skill-set).

EvenMoney’s NBA Draft 2011 – Top 10 Power Forwards, #9

#9 – Kenneth Faried

Kenneth Faried is the player most likely to wreck your draft board. Take that as a positive and a negative! Some are reporting there’s a team or two thinking of taking him Top 10.

Though we like Faried very much, enough to compare him (favorably) to Taj Gibson; enough to put him over some players from top schools, we have some reservations, namely his height and what position and/or role he will play and whether he can score in the NBA.

Other than that, we think his athleticism, energy and rebounding prowess will translate well into the league. Still not convinced? Ponder the stats below and press play!

Video courtesy of 2tone973

 

PF	Kenneth Faried
	BPM		PCM	DIR	TPA
Rank	4.92	1.00		3.25	14.00

 Out of 138 players:

·        Kenneth Faried is a first-round pick in all 4 metrics. The major knock against him is that he played at Morehead State and did not face top competition.

·        He’s worth the risk at 14 to 20 because of his defense and rebounding.

·        Considered as a whole (BPM), as well as for each specialty (PCM for Production; DIR for Defense; and TPA (Talent/Skill-set).

EvenMoney’s NBA Draft 2011 – Top 10 Power Forwards, #8

#8 – Marcus Morris

Marcus Morris is the Wax Paper by J-Live player of the draft, in that so much of the song – lyrics, flow and beat – sounds like a metaphor for Marcus’s career and its current crossroads.

He had a twin brother borns in the part

One was dark, one was light, neither was right

Taking turns letting off shots to move crowds

With the needlepoint aim and the infrared sights so they ruled the night

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And don't let the motive be anything more than cold-blooded

Cause then he'll put two times the effort in the caper

When diamond-tipped shells will drop jewels in your dome

Pull out your heart, and wrap it up in wax paper

Song and Lyrics by J-Live; Courtesy of EasyLyrics.org

Marcus in  the same predicament as another NBA twin (Brook Lopez); his game leans more on the offensive side and that has people wondering what it would be like if he and brother Markieff were melded.

We don’t feel that is necessary because Marcus is one iota away from being a complete two-way player. He needs to increase output and/or performance in the following categories: 3pt shooting (35%); FT shooting (69%); while adding a few more Blocks and Steals.

As the song says, all he has to do is “put two times the effort in the caper”. Still not convinced? Ponder the stats below and press play!

Video courtesy of TheDraftReview

PF	Marcus Morris
	BPM		PCM	DIR	TPA
Rank	58.76	13.33		75.25	99.00

 Out of 138 players:

·        Marcus Morris is a first-round pick in only 1 of the 4 metrics, the one that factors in overall production. Our projection is first round 13 to 18.

·        Luckily for him, many teams draft utilizing only that metric. For Marcus to justify such a high pick, he has to put in the gym work.

·        Considered as a whole (BPM), as well as for each specialty (PCM for Production; DIR for Defense; and TPA (Talent/Skill-set).