My WTA US OPEN 2016 - Finals Pick, BRACKET FOUR

BRACKET FOUR

7 R. Vinci – Roberta plays the role of crafty veteran so well. She knows most players want to stand behind the baseline and hit away. I had Vinci losing to Christina McHale because Vinci has played a lot of tennis this past year. In recent outings, it seemed fatigue might have gotten to her. The amount of play has paid off because she has won enough to boost her points to keep her into the Top 10 in the rankings. This, in turn, has helped her avoid a seeded player this far into the tournament.

My WTA US OPEN 2016 - Finals Pick, BRACKET THREE

BRACKET THREE

8 M. Keys – I had Madison losing to Garbine Muguruza in the quarterfinals. Now, that moves her to a potential matchup against Angelique Kerber, provided she reaches the appropriate level of focus. She has dodged two losses in the first three rounds and can no longer press her luck.

My WTA US OPEN 2016 - Finals Pick, BRACKET TWO

BRACKET TWO

3 A. Radwanska – I had Aga reaching here and losing to Timea Bacsinszky, the second biggest disappointment of the tournament. She wins this round and likely faces Venus Williams. Depending on who has the tougher match this round, I could see Radwanska reaching the Semis.

My WTA US OPEN 2016 - Finals Pick, BRACKET ONE

Another major tournament and again the biggest disappointment is Garbine Muguruza, who lost in the second round. We are not being unfair to Muguruza. Ponder the numbers: 7 of the top 8 seeds made it to the Round of 16, and 4 of the next 8 seeds made it

That is not to say my bracket is not busted. IT IS!!!  I ended up with a 7 of 16 correct picks for a 43.75% output. Names in red were not my original selection, so I most likely will not pick them to go too far but I will give credit where it is due.

My WTA US OPEN 2016 - 4th Round Picks, Bracket Four

Bracket	Player	Player	Player	Player
FOUR	C. McHale	21 I. Begu	14 P. Kvitova	2 A. Kerber

C. McHale is ready for that next step. To get there, she likely has to get through 7 R. Vinci and S. Lisicki.

My WTA US OPEN 2016 - 4th Round Picks, Bracket Three

Bracket	Player	Player	Player	Player
THREE	8 M. Keys	9 S. Kuznetsova	A. Petkovic	3 G. Muguruza

8 M. Keys should get through this part of the bracket but there's potential for dramatic matches against A. Riske, M. Brengle and N. Osaka who might upset 28 C. Vandeweghe, who is coming off an ankle injury.

My WTA US OPEN 2016 - 4th Round Picks, Bracket Two

Bracket	Player	Player	Player	Player
TWO	4 A. Radwanska	15 T. Bacsinszky	K. Mladenovic	6 V. Williams

4 A. Radwanska should push through with no problems, but it would be interesting to see what happens if E. Bouchard is her third round opponent, only because Bouchard is at that point where she needs to put up or...

My WTA US OPEN 2016 - 4th Round Picks, Bracket One

Bracket	Player	Player	Player	Player
ONE	1 S. Williams	16 S. Stosur	19 E. Vesnina	5 S. Halep

1 S.Williams tough first rounder versus E. Makarova and a star-filled potential third rounder against 29 A. Ivanovic

WTA Wimbledon 2016 Finals Wrap-up

When it comes to Tennis, picking the favorite to win a grand slam title is easy. I had Serena winning Wimbledon 2016, yet I was one match away from picking her opponent. Angelique Kerber solidified her Top 2 ranking. She, Garbine Muguruza and Victoria Azarenka are three bona fide opponents who will stand in Serena’s way as she tries to reach the ultimate record of 25 women’s grand slam singles titles.

My WTA Wimbledon 2016 Finals Pick

The biggest disappointment was Garbine Muguruza losing in the second round. She lost early in the Mallorca Open but that could be seen as the hangover from her winning the French Open. What she learned in this Wimbledon is that other players see her as their potential “biggest” victory and are bringing their best.

A quick look at the numbers: 5 of the top 8 seeds made it to the Round of 16; only 3 of the next 8 seeds made it. That is where we get the two additional surprises, in addition to the two upsets I picked. Funny enough, the two slots did produce upstarts, just not the ones I picked.  I ended up with a 56% output of picks correctly selected. 

My WTA Wimbledon 2016 - 4th Round Picks

1 S.Williams v. H. Watson, if Heather Watson progresses after facing a tough 1st Round match-up against Annika Beck and potential 2nd Round against 31 Kristina Mladenovic.

13 S. Kuznetsova v. 18 S. Stephens, if Svetlana Kuznetsova gets by Caroline Wozniacki. It's hard to pick Sloane in this potential match-up, not knowing whether she'll be tuned in.

27 C. Vandeweghe has been playing well and this a great opportunity for her. On the other side of the ledger, Alison Riske or 6 Roberta Vinci are the potential opponents.
  

EvenMoney’s 2016 NBA Draft Review

Using these four measures, we evaluated the value a player brought based on where picked by a team.

-- Actual Draft Position
-- BPM Final Aggregate -- Defined here.
-- BPM Drafted Rank  --  Ranking of the NCAA players drafted who met the Minutes Played requirement.
-- Actual to BPM -- Differential of the two measures.

 

EvenMoney’s 2016 NBA Draft Big Board

We have gone away from our past ways of doing the NBA Draft Big Board by selecting the Top 60 players using our model and its 4 metrics.

Our Big Board does not account for players who did not play 450 minutes or more at a NCAA college this past season. We have separated players based on Class Year, and factored in their class year and the final RPI Rankings into their final BPM (Ball Player Money) Value.

WTA French Open 2016 Finals Wrap-up

Coming in as the fourth seed and playing great tennis, I picked Garbine Muguruza to face Serena Williams, the number one seed, in the Finals of the WTA French Open 2016. Though I am high on her potential, I did not have her winning this match. But, she did it, and earned it with her customary baseline to baseline prowess.

My WTA French Open 2016 Finals Pick

I was expecting some surprises and upsets to reach this Round of 16 and compete for the second week of the WTA 2016 French Open. Unfortunately, my upsets did not pan out, leaving me with a 50% output of picks correctly selected. 

Names in red were not my original selection, so I most likely will not pick them to go too far but I will give credit where it is due.

Bracket	Player	Player	Player	Player
ONE	1 S. Williams	18. E. Svitolina	12. C. Suarez Navarro	Y. Putintseva
TWO	K. Bertens	15 M. Keys	9. V. Williams	8 T. Bacsinszky
THREE	25 I. Begu	S. Rogers	13 S. Kuznetsova	4 G. Muguruza
FOUR	6. S. Halep	21. S. Stosur	T. Pironkova	2 A. Radwanska

PICKS

My WTA: French Open 2016 - Round of 16 Picks

1.    The potential 2^nd Round match-up between Madison Keys and Daria Gavrilova might be the best of the early tournament matches. Both aim for power but Keys has the upper hand. Gavrilova’s energy and willingness to chase balls down provides the balance. 

 

NFL 2015 NFC Divisional Round (Packers vs Cardinals)

The Green Bay Packers are battle-tested. During the regular season, they played 6 of the 12 teams that qualified for this year's NFL playoffs. They won 3 and lost 4 of these games. They won 7 of their other 9 games.

Tonight the Packers face the Arizona Cardinals, one of the playoff teams that beat them. It was the Packers' worst loss of the season, a 38-8 drubbing where neither team bothered to score in the fourth quarter. This late season game further convinced people the Cardinals could come out of the NFC, and made more doubters for the Packers.

NFL 2015 AFC Divisional Round (Chiefs vs Patriots)

Kansas City At New England (-5; 43.5) is an intriguing matchup because the Kansas City Chiefs have won 11 games in a row. Not only are the Chiefs getting the customary hedge of roughly 3 points for being the Away Underdog, they're getting an extra 2 points. These factors alone make this an easy ATS (against the spread) pick. Or, does it?

The New England Patriots have not looked dominant since Week 10, a last second win over the New York Giants. Their record since then is 3 Wins, 4 Losses. Of these losses, the one in Week 13 against the Philadelphia Eagles standout the most. Faced with various injuries, the outlook going into the game was the Patriots could beat the Eagles even when not at full-strength.

After leading early by 14 points, the Patriots faced a 21-point deficit in the fourth quarter. Though they mounted a comeback, it fell short. Since that time, it seems as if the Patriots packed it in for the season, in order to take care of injuries and dare I say to position themselves not to play one specific team (Pittsburgh Steelers) in this round of the playoffs.

I do not put much stock in the Patriots' last two losses of the season. At this point, five of the AFC six playoffs spots had been determined. The Patriots controlled their own destiny and they basically chose the second seed.

Injuries will be a big part of the story, mainly Rob Gronkowski (Patriots) and Jeremy Maclin (Chiefs). Both are listed as Questionable, with Gronkowski more likely to play. Without him, the Patriots offense is not as explosive and consistent. Without Maclin, the Chiefs do not have a passing game.

Already ranked near last this season in passing yards, this will put more pressure on the defense. The Chiefs defense has held the last 12 of 13 opponents to under 21 points. This sets up a great battle between one of the NFL's top secondaries and pass rushing defenses, and Tom Brady.

Brady led the NFL in Pass Attempts, Passing Yards and Passing TDs. He was pretty much New England's entire offense. The Patriots were ranked 30th in Rushing Yards and 5th in Passing Yards. Brady threw 2 or more TDs in 13 out of 16 games, so one can basically start the Patriots off with 14 to 21 points on the board.

The Patriots scored, at least, 20 points in 15 of their first 16 games this season. So, can the Chiefs score 21 or more points to edge out a victory? The Chiefs scored 21 points or more in 12 games this season.

With New England giving 5 points, the numbers favor the Chiefs (.789) because the Chiefs scored 17 or more points in all but two games this season.

So, I take the Chiefs (OVER), seeing this as well-balanced game on both sides of the ball, with the victor making the least costly turnover. Pick wisely, and check out the pick for the other playoff games.

NFL 2015 NFC Wild Card (Packers vs Redskins)

This NFL Wildcard matchup comes down to whether the Green Bay Packers can score 24 points. In the last 8 games, Green Bay's opponents have scored 23 or fewer points in 7 games. The Packers are 4-4 during this stretch.

In the first 8 games of the season, the Packers were 6-2 and scored 24 or more points 6 times. Their only loss when scoring over 23 points was to the Carolina Panthers.

The Washington Redskins performed along these same lines. In the last 8 games, Washington's opponents have scored 23 or few points in 5 games. The Redskins are 6-2 during this stretch.

For the Redskins, the defensive turnaround coincided with that of the offense, specifically Kirk Cousins. In the first 8 games, Cousins threw 10 Touchdowns and 9 Interceptions. He threw 19 TDs and 2 INTs in the last 8 games.

Can the Packers defense contain or rattle Cousins to get the much needed Interceptions? This matchup is a classic "pick them" -- Green Bay At Washington (PK; 47).

Though the numbers tilt to the Redskins (.947), the Redskins lost 5 games to non-playoff teams. The Packers lost 2 games to non-playoff teams.

So, I take the Packers (OVER). Pick wisely, and check out the pick for the other playoff games.

NFL 2015 NFC Wild Card (Seahawks vs Vikings)

The Seattle Seahawks lost six games this season. Two of these losses were to the St. Louis Rams, a division rival that seemed to have Seattle's number.

The other four were to teams that made the playoffs. In three of those four losses, the Seahawks led or tied going into the fourth quarter. In the other game, division rival, the Arizona Cardinals dominated the Seattle for most of that game. The Seahawks returned the favor in Week 17.

This playoff matchup is a repeat of a Week 13 contest where the Seattle Seahawks demolished the Minnesota Vikings. The final score was 38-7, and justifies the outlook for this meeting: Seattle At Minnesota (+4; 39.5).

The Vikings defense will determine this game. The Vikings have lost five of six games when they gave up 20 or more points. In their other 10 games, all wins, the opponent scored less than 20 points.

Minnesota also led at the half in all these games, except once when they were tied with the Chicago Bears. This was their only come from behind victory -- they trailed at the start of the fourth quarter.

The Seahawks have scored 29 or more points in 7 of 8 games, and have not scored less than 17 points in a loss. So, can the Vikings offense support its defense with 21 points?

The numbers favor the Seahawks (.737) because they have the defense to match their explosive offense.

So, I take the Seahawks (OVER). Pick wisely, and check out the pick for the other playoff games.

NFL 2015 AFC Wild Card (Steelers vs Bengals)

Heading into their Week 14 matchup, these two teams were my choices to come out of the AFC. With them facing each other in a Wild Card game, this lessens that likelihood. The next key factor is the injury, during that game, to Quarterback Andy Dalton which has caused the Cincinnati Bengals to be the underdog at home. 

Pittsburgh At Cincinnati (+3; 45.5) is an early referendum on AJ McCarron. Since McCarron replaced Dalton during the game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Bengals have won two and lost two. The loss to the Denver Broncos is why they did not earn a bye.

As a starter, McCarron's play has been steady but his lack of experience and big strike capability will likely hinder the Bengals in these playoffs.

Even with Dalton starting, the Steelers have had success against the Bengals -- a record of 6 Wins and 2 Losses coming into this season. Early this season, the Steelers lost to the Bengals in a low-scoring affair. Since that game, Pittsburgh has scored 28 or more points, on way to a 6-2 record.

For Cincinnati, its defense has been the steady force since that game. The Bengals defense has held opponents to under 21 points in 7 of 9 games. To beat the Steelers, the Bengals will need to score 24 or more points.

Against the Spread (ATS) this game is a toss-up - a battle between Bengals defense and Steelers offense.

So, I take the Steelers (OVER) because the Steelers defense is not likely to give up over 21 points to AJ McCarron. Pick wisely, and check out the pick for the other playoff games.

NFL 2015 AFC Wild Card (Chiefs vs Texans)

Early this season, I was optimistic on the Kansas City Chiefs and their chance to win the AFC West division. Though that did not occur, the Chiefs showed  great resiliency by winning their final 10 games of the season. This is after losing 5 games in a row.

The Chiefs opened the season by beating the Houston Texans - score of 27 - 20. Though I felt that the Texans were facing desperate times as a franchise, I must admit my surprise in how they turned their season around. The Texans won 7 of their final 9 games to win the AFC South division.

Houston played through controversy and injuries at the quarterback position but it was their defense that righted the ship.

In the final 9 games, the Texans held opponents to under 18 points for 7 wins.

The Chiefs did the same in 8 of their final 10 winning games. Knowing we will witness two formidable defenses, what are the key points? The Chiefs defense is more explosive, particularly when it comes to the pass rush (Sacks) and Interceptions.

Brian Hoyer threw 7 INTS in 11 games, which on a percentage basis places him in the middle of the pack for starting quarterbacks. Where he does excel is that he throws nearly 2 TDs per game, which places him at the top third for starting quarterbacks.

Level of competition faced and performance against top teams do matter in determining which offense is more potent. Statistically the Texans offense rates better than the Chiefs, except in two key areas: points scored and rushing yards.

With the matchup being Kansas City At Houston (+3; 40) the numbers favor the Chiefs at .789.

So, I take the Chiefs (UNDER), either looking at a Chiefs blowout, or a grind out defensive struggle. Pick wisely, and check out the pick for the other playoff games.