NFL 2015 Week 11 - EvenMoney's Game of the Week (Bengals vs Cardinals)

Cincinnati At Arizona (-4.5; 48) pits two teams that are currently in second place in their respective conferences. This game has major consequences for teams chasing these two division leaders.

By tip-off time, Arizona will know whether it has sole possession of second place in the NFC. Barring a major losing streak, Arizona locks up the NFC West with a win.

This matchup comes down to the Cardinals offense versus the Bengals defense. The Cardinals have scored over 24 points in 7 out of 9 games. The Bengals defense has not yielded over 24 points this season, and is first in the NFL in Points Allowed.

This is not smoke and mirrors, as the Bengals have done this against 7 teams that score 21+ points per game.



When two top teams square off, something's got to give. In this case, the question is whether the Bengals "bend but don't break" defense can work against the Cardinals.

The Cardinals lead the league with 36 Extra Point Attempts and have attempted 18 Field Goals. Can you really go against that much offensive firepower?

So, I take the Cardinals (OVER). Pick wisely, come back for Monday's pick and until enjoy two top teams try to take that next step.

Jaguars On The Hunt for a Playoff Spot! NFL 2015 TNF 11

Tennessee At Jacksonville (-3; 42.5) signals a chance for the Jacksonville Jaguars to take a sharp turn in the franchise's fortune. The Jaguars have not made the playoffs since the 2007 season.

Since then Jacksonville has not had a winning season. With only a 3-6 record, the Jaguars can only aim for the playoffs because the AFC South division is having a terrible year.

Two teams are tied for first place with a 4-5 record. If Jacksonville wins tonight and both the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans lose on Sunday, there will be a three-way tie for the division.

Even if either or both teams win, the Jaguars can remain just one game off the lead with a win tonight against the 2-7 Tennessee Titans, who are last in the AFC South.



This game comes down to defense. The Jaguars defense has given up 31+ points in 4 games, and 20 points or less in 4 games. Facing a Titans team that has scored 14 points or less in 6 games, this is Jacksonville's chance to make believers of themselves.

On the other side of the ledger, the Titans defense has given up 27+ points in 5 games, and 20 points or less in 4 games. The Jaguars have scored 20+ points in 6 games.

Both teams have been wildly in consistent and no true pattern has evolved, but the Tennessee Titans have only won when they have scored over 34+ points. This can be a question of pace and whether the opponent can run the ball. Jacksonville cannot.

The question: can Jacksonville score 24 points while holding the Titans to under 21 points?

The numbers do not point favorably to either team when it comes to the spread, but Jacksonville is picked at .579 while Tennessee is at .421.

I take Jaguars (OVER). Pick wisely, come back for Sunday's picks and until then watch the Jaguars on the hunt for a playoff spot.

Texans Playing With House Money! - NFL 2015 MNF 10

The Houston Texans can do no wrong tonight. They will literally be playing with house money. The current line is Houston At Cincinnati (-10.5; 46.5).

Even with a 3-5 record, the Texans are only a half-game behind the Indianapolis Colts for the AFC South division lead. A win tonight and they will be tied with a chance at making the playoffs. The two teams have a comparable strength of schedule for their remaining games, which means their meeting in Week 15 could decide the division.

A win tonight against the undefeated (8-0) Cincinnati Bengals can be the restart Houston needs. So far, the Texans have been inconsistent, partly due to key injuries, specifically to Running Back, Arian Foster.

The Texans are near last in NFL Rushing at 87.9 yards per game and 6th in Passing at 281.5 yards per game. Much of this has to do with falling behind early in games and having to abandon the run. There has been some inconsistency at the quarterback position with the benching of Brian Hoyer. Now that the Texans have released Ryan Mallett, the position is for Hoyer to stabilize or lose for good.



The Texans should approach tonight's game with reckless abandon -- Pass first, go for it on 4th down when reasonable and speed up the game, possibly with a hurry up offense. This might be the best strategy because the Bengals defense is currently second in the league in points (17.8). This is interesting because they are not Top 10 in any other major defensive category.

The Bengals allow opponents to rack up yards while killing lots of clock and then limiting them to Field Goals. On offense, their offensive talent can score quickly- 3rd in points (28.6) while being 14th in actual Third Downs Made.

Houston's defense suffered two weeks where they gave up over 40 points (48 and 44). If the Texans defense can give up at or below the 25.6 points per game it allows, then not losing by 11 points is very likely.

The question: can the Bengals score 28 points tonight against a Texans defense that has proven to be an enigma?

The numbers break Bengals (.789) and Texans (.211), but I'm going out on a limb because I think Hoyer has a chance to be real Texas gunslinger while the defense holds up.

So, I take Texans (UNDER).  Pick wisely, and come back for Thursday's picks and tonight we find out just how desperate the Texans are for a win.

NFL 2015 Week 10 - EvenMoney's Game of the Week (Patriots vs Giants)

New England At NY Giants (+7; 54.5) provides one of two remaining chances for the Patriots not to have an undefeated season. To beat the New England Patriots, a team needs a veteran quarterback who can challenge them. The next time for this to occur will be against the Denver Broncos in Week 12.

There were two previous weeks (1 and 6) when the Patriots faced teams with quarterbacks that posed such a threat. Since then, the Patriots have been able to bomb away and run through teams, knowing no matter the points they give up on defense, their offense will have a chance to surpass it.

The New York Giants have a veteran, championship level quarterback in Eli Manning, who is Top 5 to Top 10 in Completions, Attempts, Comp. Percentage, and Passing TouchDowns. Contrast this with the Giants being 24th in the league in Rushing at under 100 Yards per game and ZERO TouchDowns.



For the Giants to be competitive, Eli needs major help from the defense. Though much maligned for lapses of bad play and giving up 25.1 points per game, the Giants defense is Top 3 in Interceptions and Forced Fumbles.

Still they are ranked last in Sacks and hope the return of Jean Pierre-Paul provides immediate help. New York will need an effective pass rush to control Tom Brady and a Patriots offense that has scored 27+ points each game, averaging 34.5ppg and besting opponents by 16.63ppg.

Before taking that to the bank, do note that the large margins of victory has come against 4 teams with a combined record of 10-22. In the other 4 games, New England won by an average of 7.25 points.

That is not to say that Tom Brady is not having a superb season where he is Top 5 to Top 10 in 8 leading categories.

The question is simple: can the Giants defense hold the Patriots to 27 points or under? If so, then the Giants have won 4 out of 5 of games when their defense holds up.

So, I take the Giants (UNDER). Pick wisely, come back for Monday's pick and until then watch two Super Bowl winning teams and quarterbacks give you a glimpse of the near future.

Can Buffalo's Tyrod Taylor Earn His Wings? NFL 2015 TNF 10

The Buffalo Bills (4-4) have not made the playoffs since the season ending 1999. Since then they have finished .500 or better four times, including this past season.

The coaching change to Rex Ryan was supposed to signal a continuation of that winning path, even though he made wholesale changes.

Three losses to division leaders and a slip up against the Jacksonville Jaguars has everyone writing the Buffalo Bills off. Two of these four losses came with starting Quarterback Tyrod Taylor injured.

Head coaches with big personalities, especially ones with a defense first philosophy, often make people think quarterbacks are interchangeable. So far, the Bills have realized this is not the case.



Buffalo's only chance to win lies on Rex's willingness to open up the offense and rely on Taylor's arm, decision-making and legs. For Quarterbacks who have started 4 or more games this season, Taylor is Top Five in QB Rating, Pass Percentage, Passing Yards Per Attempt and Rushing Yards Per Attempt.

Tonight Buffalo At NY Jets (-2; 41.5) pits Taylor against a Jets defense that is still Top 10 in the NFL but has slipped a bit due to recent lapses in the secondary and missed tackles.

After four seasons as a backup in Baltimore, this game is important for Taylor because it's his chance to be in the rising star quarterback conversation.

For the Buffalo Bills, this game is their playoffs. A loss tonight means they will need to finish the season 6-1 to earn a Wild Card spot.

The question: can Buffalo score 24 points? The Jets have not won a game this season when the opponent scores that much or more.

Though the Bills usually score 24+ when Taylor plays, these results are against teams with losing records and poor defenses.

I take Jets (OVER). Pick wisely, come back for Sunday's picks and look forward to the day Tyrod Taylor earns his wings.

Who Are Da Bears? - NFL 2015 MNF 9

Chicago At San Diego (-4; 50)  has Wild Card playoff implications for both teams, but moreso for the Bears because they will be just one game behind the NFC logjam for the final playoff spot.

It is a tall order because, even after a win tonight, Chicago is likely to go no better than 4-4 in their final 8 games. But, what if, the Bears are not who we thought they were?

The Bears are only 2-5 but 4 of their losses have come to teams with .500 or better records. Four of these teams would qualify if the playoffs started today. Three of these losses were to division foes who know them well and two could have been wins -- lost by 3 points twice.



The blowout losses were to NFC West teams. In Week 2 against the Arizona Cardinals, the Bears trailed 28-20 at the half and then Quarterback Jay Cutler got hurt. The Bears went on to lose 48-23.

The next week they were shut out 26-0 on the road at Seattle with Jay Clausen at QB. With Cutler back from injury, Chicago won their next two matchups versus AFC West opponents.

The next two losses -- one due to questionable calls against them at Detroit -- were against fellow NFC North opponents.



Tonight's game will pit the Bears against another AFC West opponent, the San Diego Chargers who are 2-6 and currently on a four-game losing streak.

The Chargers are normally involved in high-scoring affairs because they have offensive firepower and score 23.88 points per game. In return, they give up 28.38.

San Diego has not yielded less than 24 points in any game this year. In both their Wins, the opponent scored, at least, 27 points.

In 3 of their last 4 games, the Bears have held teams to under 24 points.

The question: Do Da Bears have enough offensive firepower to withstand the Chargers' air assault?

The numbers break only on the percentages, not the spread: Bears (.684) and Chargers (.316)

So, I take Bears (Under).  Pick wisely, and come back for Thursday's picks and tonight we find out whether "da Bears are who we thought they were".

NFL 2015 Week 9 - EvenMoney's Game of the Week (Packers vs Panthers)

Green Bay At Carolina (+2.5; 46) could decide whether the race to the NFC playoffs has intrigue or becomes humdrum. For it to remain riveting, Green Bay has to lose. 

From there, it does not matter the outcome of the matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and the St. Louis Rams because 10 teams will fully be in play for the Wild Card.

A week ago, before the loss to the Denver Broncos, the Packers looked unbeatable, as if this season could go down as one talked about for generations. They had won 6 games by 10.5 points. They had a balanced team, where the running game paced them and helped them maintain leads.



Even Quarterback Aaron Rodgers was in on the act (160 yards in 6 games), while throwing it on everybody, averaging 8.16 Yard per Attempt , heading for roughly 4,000 yards for the season. Was Denver's defense the driving force to Rodgers's poor 3.5 Yards per Attempt performance? Or was it something that had been looming but hidden?

Mike Tyson famously and accurately quipped, "Everyone has a plan 'til they get punched in the mouth." Until facing the Broncos, Green Bay had scored first in all of its games, even the come from behind win against the Seattle Seahawks.

The Carolina Panthers are more of a team that builds momentum as the game progresses. They are as likely to fall behind by 3 points as they are to take a 7 point lead.

Though the underdog, the Panthers have more than a puncher's chance to beat the Packers back into the playoff pack; they have Cam Newton.

Using the previous metrics, through 6 games, Cam was on his way to 3400 yards for the season and had 245 yards rushing.

Third in the NFL, Cam Newton averages 13 yards per completion and this is not due to his receivers' YAC (yard after catch). The Panthers use long passes to open up the running game and they lead the NFL in Rushing, where Green Bay's defense is near the bottom.

This is a toss-up for the win, with Carolina getting the slight nod because they are at home. The numbers break as Panthers (.526) to win by 7 points, and Packers (.474) to win by 5 points.

So, I take the Panthers (OVER). Pick wisely, come back for Monday's pick and until then watch which team triumphs.

What Can Browns Do For You? NFL 2015 TNF 9

With only 10 teams above .500 and 4 of them undefeated, what do you make of NFL 2015? There are three tiers: the undefeateds; the average, at 4+ wins; and the upset-minded.

The Cleveland Browns are of the latter caliber. Up until two weeks ago, before losing to the St. Louis Rams, the Browns looked average, like they could make a slow push to the playoffs.

These past two weeks, with losses at a combined 32 points, have pushed Cleveland down, to the point where no one is giving them a chance to win this Thursday Night Football matchup.

Cleveland at Cincinnati (-11.5; 45) stands as the Browns last chance to salvage the season or merely save face. With Johnny Manziel starting in place of injured Josh McCown, the odds are slim that Cleveland reaches the 28+ points it would take to beat the Bengals.



Cincinnati is one the of undefeated teams, beating opponents by 9.42 points per game. No opponent has scored more than 24 points all season.

That's where division rivalry comes into play. In their two NFC North matchups, the Bengals won by an average of 5 points and had to fight to the bitter end for both wins.

Division rivalries count for something and these two teams have split their past 6 games, with current standing and home field meaning very little. Winners have done so by 10+ points in five of the games.

Cleveland's defense gives up 24 points by seemingly walking on the field; and on average 27 points per game for the year. The weight of this game is on Johnny Manziel's shoulders.

That's a tough order, so I take Bengals (UNDER). Pick wisely, come back for Sunday's picks and look forward to the day Browns can do something for you.

Carolina In My Mind - NFL 2015 MNF 8

A win tonight and the Carolina Panthers will remain the lone undefeated team in the NFC. Let's not look ahead because next week they face the Green Bay Packers who got handled and handed their first loss yesterday.

Even if we were to look ahead, Carolina has a chance to finish 14-2, provided they win tonight. Tonight's Monday Night Football matchup against the Indianapolis Colts can be problematic because the Panthers have not fully distinguished themselves.

Though they stand at 6-0, the Panthers have not beaten a team with a winning (over .500) record. The Panthers have been winning ugly, with defense being their calling card.



Coupled with a defense that only gives up 18.33 points per game, their offense puts up 27 points per game. The Panthers are about ball control -- the running game, which shortens the game and their opponents' opportunities to score.

On the other side, the Colts are near the bottom in scoring at 21 points per game. Their strength is the passing game which should make for an interesting battle against Carolina's defense.

Could this be the sleeper game where the Panthers fall behind early and are forced to abandon the run?

I'm thinking Carolina can win even if it comes down to that because Indianapolis gives up too many yards. The Panthers will get to, at least, 20 points.

The question for Indianapolis at Carolina (-5.5; 45.5): can the Colts score 18 or more points against the Panthers defense?

So, I take Panthers (Under).  Pick wisely, and come back for Thursday's picks and enjoy having Carolina on your mind.

NFL 2015 Week 8 - EvenMoney's Game of the Week (Giants vs Saints)

After their 0-3 start, the Saints have been rising to the top, winning three of their last four games. A win today and the New Orleans Saints are in the race for a Wild Card playoff spot.

The Saints will need help from other teams, mainly the Chicago Bears beating the Minnesota Vikings. After today's game, New Orleans finish the year with a soft schedule where they can go 6-2.

Today's game: New York at New Orleans (-3; 50) is a must-win for any of this to matter. For the Saints, it is hard to pinpoint what has led to the recent wins. In the past four games, they have scored 5 more points while giving up 3 less points. Yet, no one area of the game jump out as the catalyst for this turnaround.

Chances are it is momentum gained from their win against the Atlanta Falcons; the inverse of how they started the season.



The New York Giants have not gotten traction this season. Plagued with injuries at the Wide Receiver position and no consistent running game, Quarterback Eli Manning is being asked to do more.

Manning has been steady but the Giants go as their defense does -- giving up 22 points per game. A team that scores 24 or more points has a 75% chance to beat the Giants.

Today's question: Can the New Orleans Saints muster enough offense to beat the New York Giants?

The Saints have scored 26 or more in their 3 wins, and average 19 in their 4 losses.

This is a toss-up for the win with Saints getting the slight nod. For our purposes, the numbers break to Giants (.895) to win by 2 points and Saints (.105) to lose by 2 points.

So, I take the Giants (UNDER). Pick wisely, come back for Monday's pick and continue rising to the top.

Patriots Walk A Thin Line - NFL 2015 TNF 8

Miami at New England (-8; 51) is a tricky game to pick. The Patriots have won 3 games by 7 points, 1 game by 8 and two others by over 24 points.

Coupled with that, when the Dolphins lose, they do so by 14 points. Since firing their head coach before their Bye week, the Dolphins have won both their games.

Though these wins come against AFC South teams with losing records, the Dolphins scored 38 and 44 points, eclipsing their previous season-high by 18 points.

Going with the theory that the Dolphins have turned the corner, the Patriots only give up 21 points per game, while scoring  a league-leading 35.5 points per game.



The question for tonight's matchup: can New England score over 30 points against a Miami defense that gives up 23 points per game?

I pick Patriots (Over) because the game is at Gillette Stadium and the past two seasons, the HOME team has won with the Patriots winning by 10 or more.

Pick wisely, come back for Sunday's picks and enjoy the message in the song.

Quoth the Raven “Nevermore.” - NFL 2015 MNF 7

Baltimore at Arizona (-10; 50) is the Ravens final trip out west for the year, where they are 0-3. Tonight we find out whether to say "Nevermore" to the Ravens' defensive identity.

Baltimore has yielded on average 27 points per game, en route to a 1-5 record that has them well out of the playoff picture. For this Monday Night Football matchup, they face the 4-2 Arizona Cardinals who are scoring 33.33 per game.

In amassing those offensive numbers, the Cardinals have not beaten a team with a .500 or better record. Overall, Arizona is giving up under 20 points a game.

So the question is whether the Ravens can score 23 points tonight. The Ravens average just shy of 24 points per game and have scored 23 or more 4 times in their 6 games.



The Cardinals should win this game but the 10 points are a bit much because the Ravens have not lost by more than 6 points all season.

So, I take Ravens (Under).  Pick wisely, and come back for Thursday's picks and enjoy this reading of The Raven by James Earl Jones.

NFL 2015 Week 7 - EvenMoney's Game of the Week (Vikings vs Lions)

The Minnesota Vikings are, at the moment, in a four team race for the Wild Card. Today's matchup - Minnesota at Detroit (-1; 45) - starts a four-game stretch of must win games.

After these games, the Vikings will then face four NFC teams with playoff possibilities. Now that we have the big picture, Minnesota's current focus is a Detroit Lions team that won its first game last week.

The Lions have underachieved. Though they score 20 points per game, they are more likely to score 17 points while giving up 28.7 points per game.

Adrian Peterson is questionable for the game, which would impact the Vikings' ability to take advantage of Detroit's weak defense. In their previous matchup (Week 2), the Vikings won 26-16 and Peterson rushed for 134 yards.

To counter, can Matthew Stafford challenge the Vikings defense? Stafford has thrown 10 TDs and 9 INTs, and the Vikings defense is vulnerable to both the passing and running game. Theirs is a bend but don't break defense -- second in the NFL, giving up only 16.6 points per game.

The numbers break to Vikings (.842) to win by 2 points and Lions (.158) to lose by 9 points.

So, I take the Vikins (UNDER). Pick wisely, come back for Monday's pick and enjoy this playlist/mix.

How The NFC West Was Lost - NFL 2015 TNF 7

No NFC West team has beaten a team with a winning record, except for San Francisco's Week 1 win against the Minnesota Vikings. To their defense, these losses have come to teams that are likely to win their division.

The major blemish on the Seattle Seahawks record is the loss to division rival St. Louis Rams, a team that also beat NFC West division leading Arizona Cardinals.

So, what ails the Seahawks? They fade in the second half of games, particularly the 4th quarter where they're attempting to nurse the lead, as opposed to blow the opponent away.

The San Francisco 49ers' made wholesale changes in the off-season and are led by rookie head coach by Jim Tomsula. Under this new regime, Quarterback Colin Kaepernick is being asked to do more. This has led to an increase in Interceptions and Fumbles.

The main concern for San Francisco is defensive identity, as in which team will come to play. Will it be the one that has given 30+ points in 3 games? Or the one that has held opponents to 20 or less in 3 games.

The question for tonight's game - Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (+6.5; 42.5) - Can the 49ers offense score over 20 points against the Seahawks defense?

I take Seahawks (UNDER), not knowing which Niners defense shows up. Pick wisely, come back for Sunday's picks and enjoy this playlist.

NFL 2015 Week 6 - EvenMoney's Game of the Week (Redskins vs Jets)

The New York Jets can decide their playoff fate by beating the Washington Redskins in today's matchup. A win today and then going, at least, .500 for the rest of the season puts the Jets in control of their chances for a Wild Card spot in the AFC.

Coming into the season, only the most die-hard of fans would have predicted a chance to have a 4-1 record after today's game. With the entire league splitting into a top tier of six teams and another filled with inconsistent wanderers, the Jets Defense have put them in a position to succeed.

Faced with the absence of their starting Quarterback, New York's defense leads the league in Points Against (13.8) and ranks Top 10 in other key defensive categories (Yards, Passing, Rushing and Interceptions).

This bodes well against the Washington Redskins, who only score 19.4 points per game. Both teams run a balanced offense but have had more success Rushing the ball.

Washington's losses have  come late in the game, mainly due to turnovers (Interceptions). The game will be decided by which team's Defense and Special Teams perform better.

This gives the Jets the edge to win the game but the line is currently at Washington Redskins at New York Jets (-8; 40). This movement from the starting line at -5.5 is due to injuries to key Redskins players, mainly Offensive Lineman Trent Williams and Running Back Matt Jones.

Without these factors, this was a toss-up game. With them, the numbers break to Jets (.368) and Redskins (.632).

So, I take the Redskins (UNDER). Pick wisely, come back for Monday's pick and enjoy this playlist/mix.

Atlanta Falcoms - Fly Like An Eagle NFL 2015 TNF 6

Atlanta Falcons At New Orleans Saints (+3; 52.5) is a game the Falcons (5-0) must win. The Falcons have to keep pace with two other NFC division leaders- Green Bay Packers and Arizona Cardinals.

Winning tonight and the next 5 weeks while hoping the Packers falter will be what keeps them from having to travel to Lambeau Field in the dead of winter.

The Falcons also have to be mindful of division rival Carolina Panthers who are also undefeated at 4-0. The Panthers have a tougher schedule these next few weeks, until the two teams meet but nothing is a given.

The Falcons have mounted comebacks in three of their wins, and give up 22.4 points per game, which currently ranks them 15th in the league. They have scored 32.4 points per game, which is likely what they will score tonight.

The New Orleans Saints are having a horrible season, with Quarterback Drew Brees playing through injury. They are currently 1-4 and on paper, at best, I see the Saints winning 6 more games this season.

The Saints are giving up 28.6 points per game and scoring 20.6 points per game, with their highest output being 26 points.

I take Falcons (OVER) and pray they stay above the fray, continuing to fly like an eagle. Pick wisely, come back for Sunday's picks and enjoy this playlist.

Chargers Playing Second Fiddle - NFL 2015 MNF 5

Tonight's Monday Night Football matchup features two teams who are at 2-2 and are conceivably playing for a Wild Card Playoff spot, as both their division leaders are sitting at 5-0.

For the Pittsburgh Steelers, there is a built-in excuse, an injury to their starting quarterback. The Chargers, on the other hand, have not had a 10-win season since LaDainian Tomlinson left after the 2009 season.

Since then, San Diego has only made the playoffs once and have not won the AFC West. First, it was close finishes the Kansas City Chiefs, but lately the Chargers have been mostly playing second fiddle to the Chiefs and the Denver Broncos with Peyton Manning.

The Chargers are basically hitched to Philip Rivers until the end of his contract (app. $82 million) in 2019. They will continue to go as Rivers goes. This year they have won both their HOME games and lost both their AWAY games.


Defensively, they have given up, at least, 24 points each game. Their opponent, the Pittsburgh Steelers, only gave up more than 24 points once in four games -- to the New England Patriots.

The line is Pittsburgh Steelers At San Diego Chargers (-4; 45.5). The Chargers do play high scoring games, and except for one game this season, the Steelers have combined for 43 or more points.

The numbers show Steelers winning by up to 4 points, and the Chargers with a very slim chance to win by 1 point.

So, I take Steelers (Over).  Pick wisely, and come back for Thursday's picks and enjoy this playlist.

NFL 2015 Week 5 - EvenMoney's Game of the Week (Seahawks vs Bengals)

Of all the intriguing matchups for NFL 2015 Week 5, Seattle Seahawks at Cincinnati Bengals  (-3; 44) promises to be the game to decide two divisions and Super Bowl contention. If the Bengals win, barring a major injury, then the other teams in the AFC North are essentially playing for a Wild Card spot.

This win would put the Bengals at 5-0 and potentially 3 games ahead of the next team, if the Pittsburgh Steelers lose this week. Cincinnati has to keep pace with the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos, when it comes to playoff home-field advantage in the AFC.

With the Seahawks having represented the NFC in the past two years, this is the Bengals' first true test for that next level. The prior wins -- all AFC contests -- have determined whether they should be in this discussion.

This game decides whether or not they remain a viable threat to play in the Super Bowl. For Seattle, sleep time is over. The Seahawks have been sleepwalking through the season like a team that ate too much of a carb-filled meal.

So far, nothing has knocked the chip off their shoulder, the one they think guarantees them another Super Bowl appearance. To their defense, the Seahawks have not had a reason to wake up. Yes, they faced the Green Bay Packers earlier this season. In all honesty, that game meant much more to Green Bay and the late game execution confirms this.

Seattle has taken two early season losses in stride and they've turned it on against two underwhelming teams. The two wins were at HOME and the two losses AWAY.

Today's game: AWAY. It is also the first inter-conference game for both teams. It is not a game that one can say defense will matter more than offense, and vice versa.

This will simply be a hitting game, a playoff level intensity that the Bengals have faced twice this season -- San Diego Chargers and Baltimore Ravens. Both times, the Cincinnati Bengals got off to early scoring starts and held on for victories. A better way of framing it: the Bengals play all four quarters; the Seahawks, not so much.

At the end of the day, it comes down the passing game. Which quarterback will have more success? More precisely: can Russell Wilson expose what has been the Cincinatti Bengals weak spot?

I rarely call PUSH but with the line at -3 and a game likely to be 27-24. Which team do you think wins by a Field Goal?

I have the numbers as Seattle (.737) to win by 7 points, and the Bengals (.263) to win by 2 points.

Under those terms, I take the Seahawks (Over 44).

Pick wisely, come back for Monday's pick and Enjoy this playlist/mix.

Houston Texans - Desperate Times NFL 2015 TNF 5

A tale of two desperate teams: Indianapolis Colts At Houston Texans (-0.5; 41) might just bring a memorable night for the Houston franchise. This is a night where low expectations for the season collide with the reality that the division is there for the taking.

For an expansion franchise, the Houston Texans have seen some good times - two playoff appearances since their birth in 2002. They've only suffered two true expansion team-like seasons, with records of 2-14 in 2003 and 2013. After the latter, they decided to gut the team and start fresh and ended up with a surprising 9-7 record last season, mainly under the legs of Arian Foster.

With starting Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick gone and Foster injured, the Texans have struggled to a 1-3 record. Foster came back last week but did not see much playing time.

On the other side of the ball, the Colts the Colts are struggling this year, under the weight of expectations and an injury to starting Quarterback Andrew Luck.
This is a tough game to call, except the UNDER. The early numbers all point to Houston because they're at home, but as one pulls away and rely on history, Indianapolis balances things out.

Though a 50-50 split on the win, the Colts are at .684 to win by 3 points and the Texans at .316 to win by 2 points.

So, I take COLTS (Under).  Pick wisely, come back for Sunday's picks and enjoy this playlist.

1. Charlie Robison - Desperate Times
2. Randy Rogers Band - Buy Myself A Chance
3. Fat Pat - Tops Drop

Seahawks, Legion in Bloom - NFL 2015 MNF 4

   
Detroit Lions At Seattle Seahawks (-10; 43) finds the Lions at a critical juncture in their season. The Green Bay Packers are running away with the NFC North division. A loss tonight puts Detroit at 0-4 and at risk to even qualify for the Wild Card.

The numbers favor the Seahawks to win by 2 points (.625) or the Lions to lose by 1 point (.375). No scenario where Lions will win.
So, I take Seahawks (Under).  Pick wisely, come back for Thursday's picks and enjoy this playlist.

NFL 2015 Week 4 - EvenMoney's Game of the Week (Giants vs Bills)

NY Giants at Buffalo  (-6; 46) means more to the Buffalo Bills season, simply because the Bills have to keep pace with the New England Patriots.

The Patriots have won the AFC East 11 out of the past 12 seasons. The lone season - 2008 - they did not win it was due to a tie-breaker.

The goal is not so much that the Bills have to win the division, but that they have to win 11 games in order to be in competition for a Wild Card spot in the conference.

On the other hand, the Giants' NFC East division will likely take 10 wins to win and all the teams are and will continue to be bunched up throughout the season.

A win for the Giants will place them at 2-2 and a possible three-way tie for first place. A loss will, at most, put them 2 games behind the division leader, only if the Dallas Cowboys win today.

Playoff picture notwithstanding, this is a fantastic offensive matchup. At the end of the day, either or both teams would have answered whether it's for real. Do opponents have to worry about 24 points each time they face them?

The Buffalo Bills have scored 27 or more points all 3 games this season, including in the loss to the Patriots. In that game, they trailed by 24 points and scored 19 of their 32 points in the fourth quarter.

In the other two games, the Bills have scored, at least, 24 points in the first three quarters. This is the challenge for the New York Giants who have scored 20 or less in the first three quarters in their 3 games.

With the Giants defense giving up 24 points a game and to lesser offenses, I take the Bills (Over 46).

Pick wisely, come back for Thursday's pick and Enjoy this playlist/mix.

Steelers, Michael Vick: Keep On Moving - NFL 2015 TNF 4

Michael Vick and the Pittsburgh Steelers can put the final nail in the Baltimore Ravens season. They really have to if they want to secure their own playoff lives.

The AFC North is the only NFL division that has had two different teams win the Super Bowl this current decade. Teams in this division beat up on each other and, in many ways, either toughen each other up for the playoffs or hurt the other's chances of winning the Super Bowl.

The Baltimore Ravens do not have the same level of defense as their heyday. Even with that fact, I never envisioned them as an 0-3 team. The only true chance they have tonight is that Michael Vick is the Steelers starting quarterback.

In many ways, this does not leave the Ravens with much of a chance, though they're favored. The plan is, as always, contain Vick in the pocket or line of scrimmage, forcing him to be a passer.

With the Ravens giving up nearly 300 Passing Yards Per Game and under 90 Rushing Yards Per Game, this will be a battle of wills.

Both teams have been more comfortable and productive in the passing game. That is where the advantage goes to Baltimore in light of the injury to Ben Roethlisberger.

The question tonight: Can Michael Vick attack the Baltimore secondary?

For scoring, the numbers has this game as toss-up, a two-point margin across both sides of the line, which means Ravens would not cover the 3 points in a win. The percentages has it: Pittsburgh Steelers (.789) and the Baltimore Ravens (.211).

So, I go with Steelers (+3; Under 44).  Pick wisely, come back for Sunday's picks and enjoy this playlist.