How The NFC West Was Lost - NFL 2015 TNF 7

No NFC West team has beaten a team with a winning record, except for San Francisco's Week 1 win against the Minnesota Vikings. To their defense, these losses have come to teams that are likely to win their division.

The major blemish on the Seattle Seahawks record is the loss to division rival St. Louis Rams, a team that also beat NFC West division leading Arizona Cardinals.

So, what ails the Seahawks? They fade in the second half of games, particularly the 4th quarter where they're attempting to nurse the lead, as opposed to blow the opponent away.

The San Francisco 49ers' made wholesale changes in the off-season and are led by rookie head coach by Jim Tomsula. Under this new regime, Quarterback Colin Kaepernick is being asked to do more. This has led to an increase in Interceptions and Fumbles.

The main concern for San Francisco is defensive identity, as in which team will come to play. Will it be the one that has given 30+ points in 3 games? Or the one that has held opponents to 20 or less in 3 games.

The question for tonight's game - Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (+6.5; 42.5) - Can the 49ers offense score over 20 points against the Seahawks defense?

I take Seahawks (UNDER), not knowing which Niners defense shows up. Pick wisely, come back for Sunday's picks and enjoy this playlist.

NFL 2015 Week 6 - EvenMoney's Game of the Week (Redskins vs Jets)

The New York Jets can decide their playoff fate by beating the Washington Redskins in today's matchup. A win today and then going, at least, .500 for the rest of the season puts the Jets in control of their chances for a Wild Card spot in the AFC.

Coming into the season, only the most die-hard of fans would have predicted a chance to have a 4-1 record after today's game. With the entire league splitting into a top tier of six teams and another filled with inconsistent wanderers, the Jets Defense have put them in a position to succeed.

Faced with the absence of their starting Quarterback, New York's defense leads the league in Points Against (13.8) and ranks Top 10 in other key defensive categories (Yards, Passing, Rushing and Interceptions).

This bodes well against the Washington Redskins, who only score 19.4 points per game. Both teams run a balanced offense but have had more success Rushing the ball.

Washington's losses have  come late in the game, mainly due to turnovers (Interceptions). The game will be decided by which team's Defense and Special Teams perform better.

This gives the Jets the edge to win the game but the line is currently at Washington Redskins at New York Jets (-8; 40). This movement from the starting line at -5.5 is due to injuries to key Redskins players, mainly Offensive Lineman Trent Williams and Running Back Matt Jones.

Without these factors, this was a toss-up game. With them, the numbers break to Jets (.368) and Redskins (.632).

So, I take the Redskins (UNDER). Pick wisely, come back for Monday's pick and enjoy this playlist/mix.

Atlanta Falcoms - Fly Like An Eagle NFL 2015 TNF 6

Atlanta Falcons At New Orleans Saints (+3; 52.5) is a game the Falcons (5-0) must win. The Falcons have to keep pace with two other NFC division leaders- Green Bay Packers and Arizona Cardinals.

Winning tonight and the next 5 weeks while hoping the Packers falter will be what keeps them from having to travel to Lambeau Field in the dead of winter.

The Falcons also have to be mindful of division rival Carolina Panthers who are also undefeated at 4-0. The Panthers have a tougher schedule these next few weeks, until the two teams meet but nothing is a given.

The Falcons have mounted comebacks in three of their wins, and give up 22.4 points per game, which currently ranks them 15th in the league. They have scored 32.4 points per game, which is likely what they will score tonight.

The New Orleans Saints are having a horrible season, with Quarterback Drew Brees playing through injury. They are currently 1-4 and on paper, at best, I see the Saints winning 6 more games this season.

The Saints are giving up 28.6 points per game and scoring 20.6 points per game, with their highest output being 26 points.

I take Falcons (OVER) and pray they stay above the fray, continuing to fly like an eagle. Pick wisely, come back for Sunday's picks and enjoy this playlist.

Chargers Playing Second Fiddle - NFL 2015 MNF 5

Tonight's Monday Night Football matchup features two teams who are at 2-2 and are conceivably playing for a Wild Card Playoff spot, as both their division leaders are sitting at 5-0.

For the Pittsburgh Steelers, there is a built-in excuse, an injury to their starting quarterback. The Chargers, on the other hand, have not had a 10-win season since LaDainian Tomlinson left after the 2009 season.

Since then, San Diego has only made the playoffs once and have not won the AFC West. First, it was close finishes the Kansas City Chiefs, but lately the Chargers have been mostly playing second fiddle to the Chiefs and the Denver Broncos with Peyton Manning.

The Chargers are basically hitched to Philip Rivers until the end of his contract (app. $82 million) in 2019. They will continue to go as Rivers goes. This year they have won both their HOME games and lost both their AWAY games.


Defensively, they have given up, at least, 24 points each game. Their opponent, the Pittsburgh Steelers, only gave up more than 24 points once in four games -- to the New England Patriots.

The line is Pittsburgh Steelers At San Diego Chargers (-4; 45.5). The Chargers do play high scoring games, and except for one game this season, the Steelers have combined for 43 or more points.

The numbers show Steelers winning by up to 4 points, and the Chargers with a very slim chance to win by 1 point.

So, I take Steelers (Over).  Pick wisely, and come back for Thursday's picks and enjoy this playlist.

NFL 2015 Week 5 - EvenMoney's Game of the Week (Seahawks vs Bengals)

Of all the intriguing matchups for NFL 2015 Week 5, Seattle Seahawks at Cincinnati Bengals  (-3; 44) promises to be the game to decide two divisions and Super Bowl contention. If the Bengals win, barring a major injury, then the other teams in the AFC North are essentially playing for a Wild Card spot.

This win would put the Bengals at 5-0 and potentially 3 games ahead of the next team, if the Pittsburgh Steelers lose this week. Cincinnati has to keep pace with the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos, when it comes to playoff home-field advantage in the AFC.

With the Seahawks having represented the NFC in the past two years, this is the Bengals' first true test for that next level. The prior wins -- all AFC contests -- have determined whether they should be in this discussion.

This game decides whether or not they remain a viable threat to play in the Super Bowl. For Seattle, sleep time is over. The Seahawks have been sleepwalking through the season like a team that ate too much of a carb-filled meal.

So far, nothing has knocked the chip off their shoulder, the one they think guarantees them another Super Bowl appearance. To their defense, the Seahawks have not had a reason to wake up. Yes, they faced the Green Bay Packers earlier this season. In all honesty, that game meant much more to Green Bay and the late game execution confirms this.

Seattle has taken two early season losses in stride and they've turned it on against two underwhelming teams. The two wins were at HOME and the two losses AWAY.

Today's game: AWAY. It is also the first inter-conference game for both teams. It is not a game that one can say defense will matter more than offense, and vice versa.

This will simply be a hitting game, a playoff level intensity that the Bengals have faced twice this season -- San Diego Chargers and Baltimore Ravens. Both times, the Cincinnati Bengals got off to early scoring starts and held on for victories. A better way of framing it: the Bengals play all four quarters; the Seahawks, not so much.

At the end of the day, it comes down the passing game. Which quarterback will have more success? More precisely: can Russell Wilson expose what has been the Cincinatti Bengals weak spot?

I rarely call PUSH but with the line at -3 and a game likely to be 27-24. Which team do you think wins by a Field Goal?

I have the numbers as Seattle (.737) to win by 7 points, and the Bengals (.263) to win by 2 points.

Under those terms, I take the Seahawks (Over 44).

Pick wisely, come back for Monday's pick and Enjoy this playlist/mix.

Houston Texans - Desperate Times NFL 2015 TNF 5

A tale of two desperate teams: Indianapolis Colts At Houston Texans (-0.5; 41) might just bring a memorable night for the Houston franchise. This is a night where low expectations for the season collide with the reality that the division is there for the taking.

For an expansion franchise, the Houston Texans have seen some good times - two playoff appearances since their birth in 2002. They've only suffered two true expansion team-like seasons, with records of 2-14 in 2003 and 2013. After the latter, they decided to gut the team and start fresh and ended up with a surprising 9-7 record last season, mainly under the legs of Arian Foster.

With starting Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick gone and Foster injured, the Texans have struggled to a 1-3 record. Foster came back last week but did not see much playing time.

On the other side of the ball, the Colts the Colts are struggling this year, under the weight of expectations and an injury to starting Quarterback Andrew Luck.
This is a tough game to call, except the UNDER. The early numbers all point to Houston because they're at home, but as one pulls away and rely on history, Indianapolis balances things out.

Though a 50-50 split on the win, the Colts are at .684 to win by 3 points and the Texans at .316 to win by 2 points.

So, I take COLTS (Under).  Pick wisely, come back for Sunday's picks and enjoy this playlist.

1. Charlie Robison - Desperate Times
2. Randy Rogers Band - Buy Myself A Chance
3. Fat Pat - Tops Drop

Seahawks, Legion in Bloom - NFL 2015 MNF 4

   
Detroit Lions At Seattle Seahawks (-10; 43) finds the Lions at a critical juncture in their season. The Green Bay Packers are running away with the NFC North division. A loss tonight puts Detroit at 0-4 and at risk to even qualify for the Wild Card.

The numbers favor the Seahawks to win by 2 points (.625) or the Lions to lose by 1 point (.375). No scenario where Lions will win.
So, I take Seahawks (Under).  Pick wisely, come back for Thursday's picks and enjoy this playlist.

NFL 2015 Week 4 - EvenMoney's Game of the Week (Giants vs Bills)

NY Giants at Buffalo  (-6; 46) means more to the Buffalo Bills season, simply because the Bills have to keep pace with the New England Patriots.

The Patriots have won the AFC East 11 out of the past 12 seasons. The lone season - 2008 - they did not win it was due to a tie-breaker.

The goal is not so much that the Bills have to win the division, but that they have to win 11 games in order to be in competition for a Wild Card spot in the conference.

On the other hand, the Giants' NFC East division will likely take 10 wins to win and all the teams are and will continue to be bunched up throughout the season.

A win for the Giants will place them at 2-2 and a possible three-way tie for first place. A loss will, at most, put them 2 games behind the division leader, only if the Dallas Cowboys win today.

Playoff picture notwithstanding, this is a fantastic offensive matchup. At the end of the day, either or both teams would have answered whether it's for real. Do opponents have to worry about 24 points each time they face them?

The Buffalo Bills have scored 27 or more points all 3 games this season, including in the loss to the Patriots. In that game, they trailed by 24 points and scored 19 of their 32 points in the fourth quarter.

In the other two games, the Bills have scored, at least, 24 points in the first three quarters. This is the challenge for the New York Giants who have scored 20 or less in the first three quarters in their 3 games.

With the Giants defense giving up 24 points a game and to lesser offenses, I take the Bills (Over 46).

Pick wisely, come back for Thursday's pick and Enjoy this playlist/mix.

Steelers, Michael Vick: Keep On Moving - NFL 2015 TNF 4

Michael Vick and the Pittsburgh Steelers can put the final nail in the Baltimore Ravens season. They really have to if they want to secure their own playoff lives.

The AFC North is the only NFL division that has had two different teams win the Super Bowl this current decade. Teams in this division beat up on each other and, in many ways, either toughen each other up for the playoffs or hurt the other's chances of winning the Super Bowl.

The Baltimore Ravens do not have the same level of defense as their heyday. Even with that fact, I never envisioned them as an 0-3 team. The only true chance they have tonight is that Michael Vick is the Steelers starting quarterback.

In many ways, this does not leave the Ravens with much of a chance, though they're favored. The plan is, as always, contain Vick in the pocket or line of scrimmage, forcing him to be a passer.

With the Ravens giving up nearly 300 Passing Yards Per Game and under 90 Rushing Yards Per Game, this will be a battle of wills.

Both teams have been more comfortable and productive in the passing game. That is where the advantage goes to Baltimore in light of the injury to Ben Roethlisberger.

The question tonight: Can Michael Vick attack the Baltimore secondary?

For scoring, the numbers has this game as toss-up, a two-point margin across both sides of the line, which means Ravens would not cover the 3 points in a win. The percentages has it: Pittsburgh Steelers (.789) and the Baltimore Ravens (.211).

So, I go with Steelers (+3; Under 44).  Pick wisely, come back for Sunday's picks and enjoy this playlist.

Alex Smith, Time 4 Sum Aksion - NFL 2015 MNF 3

Tonight's Monday Night Football game of Kansas City At Green Bay (-5.5; 47.5) has all sorts of marketing angles, especially after both teams participated in two come-from-behind wins in their last game.

Unfortunately for the Kansas City Chiefs, they came out on the losing hand, mainly due to TurnOvers and the Referees extending the game in the last two minutes with some dubious calls.

The Chiefs have something major going for them -- their offense moved the ball well in both games, either in the Passing or Rushing game. Plus, their Defense has been solid.

The big question mark for the Chiefs is Alex Smith. Does he have what it takes to push to that next level?

On paper and just sheer visuals, Smith's counterpart, Aaron Rodgers is a better Quarterback. Rodgers's success is linked to a Green Bay Packers offensive system that calls on him to throw more and be accountable for all the mistakes, including taking a high number of Sacks.

For the Kansas City to beat Green Bay, they will need to score more by passing more.

The numbers favor the Packers to win by 7 points (.715) or the Chiefs to defy the odds and win by 4 points (.285).

So, I take Packers (Over).  Pick wisely, come back for Thursday's picks and enjoy this playlist.

NFL 2015 Week 3 - EvenMoney's Game of the Week (Ravens vs Bengals)

Cincinnati at Baltimore  (-1.5; 45.5) promises to be a battle and has the potential to be a season ending game for the Baltimore Ravens. Losing this game would put them at 0-3 and push their division rival, the Cincinnati Bengals to 3-0.

The Bengals are Top 5 in Scoring, Passing and Rushing. Even if one makes the claim that they have faced two AFC West teams that don't have a Defense like the Ravens, the question then becomes how good is the Ravens Defense?

Last week, the Oakland Raiders aired them out, in a shootout game where the Ravens trailed by 10 points early in the first quarter. To their credit, the Ravens Offense woke up and surpassed the Raiders output.

The Bengals Defense has performed better across the board than the Ravens and the Bengals beat the Ravens twice last season.

With all that, why pick the Ravens, not only to win but to cover the Spread? Reason: the Ravens have not lost their first three games of any season under John Harbaugh with Joe Flacco at Quarterback.

Lastly, the numbers are Cincinnati Bengals win by 2 points (.333) or the Baltimore Ravens win by 5 points (.667)

I go with Ravens (Under). Pick wisely, come back for Thursday's pick and Enjoy this playlist.

What Has Eli Done For You Lately - NFL 2015 TNF 3

Eli Manning and the New York Giants are on the ropes but it truly feels like Ali's rope-a-dope strategy gone wrong. The Giants should be 2-0 going into tonight's matchup against the Washington Redskins.

The Redskins should have the same record, instead of being 1-1. At Giants (-3.5; 44), something's got to give when two NFC East stalworths that have fallen on hard times vie for a division championship.

The NFC East division will be contested until the final week of the season, partly and mainly due to the injury suffered by Dallas Cowboys Quarterback Tony Romo and the Philadelphia Eagles being in a somber slumber.

The Cowboys will patch holes. The Eagles will rise. For the Redskins to keep pace, they have to maintain their conservative, ball control approach.

The Giants, on the other hand, have to put it all on the line and open up the offense even more, relying on their star Quarterback Eli Manning.

The Defensive edge goes to the Redskins, though they have faced two lesser offenses, both games at Home. This is a tough pick no matter how you slice it.

The Giants won both meetings last season, which keeps them as a Home favorite, where the Redskins can lose by 7 points or the Giants lose by 1 point.

So, I go with Giants (Under).  Pick wisely, come back for Sunday's picks and enjoy this playlist.

Can I Get A Jets Fan? - NFL 2015 MNF 2

Upset-minded fans are looking at tonight's matchup of New York Jets At Indianapolis (-6.5; 45) as a continuation of yesterday's many unexpected results. It's really a split decision when it comes to the two true upsets and what the Jets have in common with those teams.

The Tampa Bay Bucs as an AWAY team, slated to lose by roughly 10 points was at best a 50% chance to not lose by that many. The Bucs did better than that and actually won the game. In recent years, the Bucs when faced with such spreads have pulled off similar upsets.

The Oakland Raiders at HOME lost the first week and were expected to lose again. As the Bucs, the Raiders are a team often faced with long odds. What the numbers couldn't pick up from yesterday's game is that the Ravens stayed out on the west coast after Week 1's game.

Neither of these are factors for the New York Jets. We then have to consider what the New York Jets showed last week on their way to their win, which was mainly propelled by knocking out the Cleveland Browns' starting Quarterback.

For the Colts, they get a pass because the Buffalo Bills put up points and are tough at home.

The numbers are not convincing for either team - Colts to win by 4 and Jets to lose by 6.

So, I go with Colts (Over).  Pick wisely, come back for Thursday's picks and enjoy this playlist.

NFL 2015 Week 2 - EvenMoney's Game of the Week (49ers vs Steelers)

San Francisco  at Pittsburgh  (-6.5; 45.5) is this week's game for many reasons. First, it is a toast to those who make a living picking the Steelers to cover any spread over 3 points. If you're that person, then please let me rub your head for good luck.

The second reason this game is a premier matchup: two storied franchises who no longer rule their division, let alone their conference. For Pittsburgh, they have been up and down, where on any given Sunday, they can lose to the Tampa Bay Bucs or Cleveland Browns. Most times, they are being tested by some of the NFL's premier teams and that is when their best comes out.

So, against San Francisco, look for the Steelers to show that this season's opener against the New England Patriots is indicative of what you will see this season.

Even though the Steelers lost that game, they showed just how good a team has to be to best them.

Is San Francisco that good? This question leads into why this is the Game of the Week. Both these teams have a three-way battle ahead for supremacy within their division. Unlike the Steelers, the 49ers are considered a distant third, until they beat a formidable opponent.

Last Monday's win over the hapless Minnesota Vikings did not tell much, so look for the Niners to really try to open up the offense, which might lead to quite a few turnovers, playing right into Pittsburgh's hands.

The Over/Under should not be an issue, at roughly 31-20 for the Steelers.

This is a great test for both teams. Pick wisely, come back for Thursday's pick and Enjoy this playlist.

Peyton's Last Rodeo - NFL 2015 TNF 2

This AFC West Division game will decide one thing: Are the Denver Broncos and Peyton Manning done as Super Bowl contenders? This has as much to do with a great showing by the Kansas City Chiefs and amazing comeback by the San Diego Chargers, as it does Peyton Manning and retirement.

The Denver Broncos offense never really got started against the Baltimore Ravens. This happens to many teams when they face the Ravens defense. But there was a bit more to it, a lack of sync, a lack of crispiness. Peyton Manning completed 60% of his passes for just 175 Yards and 1 INT.


They managed to pull out a win because it was a sloppy offensive game for both teams.

Heading into tonight's game, that is not something the Broncos can count on. Alex Smith and the Kansas City Chiefs demolished the Houston Texans in the first half and coasted to an easy victory. That is why Smith was under three hundred yards (243yds), while completing 66.7% of his passes, with 3 Touchdowns, ending with a QB Rating of 118.6.

The current lines are Kansas City (-3; 42.5) while I have the numbers as two strong teams where the Broncos can win by 6 or the Chiefs can win by 3, and the Over at 45. In a high scoring affair at Arrowhead Stadium and short week for both teams, I go Chiefs (Over).

Pick wisely, come back for Sunday's picks and Enjoy this playlist.

NFL 2015 Week 1 - EvenMoney's Game of the Week (Saints vs Cardinals)

New Orleans at Arizona (-2.5; 48.5) could decide two divisions. Seattle's stranglehold on the NFC West means that Arizona cannot start the season losing a home game. Conceivably to win the division, the Arizona Cardinals will have to win 11 or more games.

On the other side of the ball, a New Orleans Saints' loss does not put their chance to win the NFC South at much risk, but a win means they have rebounded from last season's sub-par showing and strong enough to win the division.

The Over/Under hinges on what type of game we get. If the Saints can score early and get the Cardinals to take more risks on both sides of the ball, take the Over with the Saints winning. Otherwise, take the Cardinals and the Under, results that prove the NFC West will be contested.

I really like this challenge for the Cardinals and select them with the Under. That is why this game barely edges Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills as my game of the week.

Patriots: "It Wasn't Me..." NFL 2015 TNF 1

The revival! It has been a long time since I crunched the numbers here or at Gather. What better time to start as we head into a new NFL season and a game where the recent Super Bowl Champions, New England Patriots are giving 7 points to the always battle-ready Pittsburgh Steelers.

This is a tough game to pick mainly because the Steelers don't care about the spread, your office pool or your couch. They're either going to win or lose badly; for them that mean is by at least 7.

I have the numbers as Patriots (-8.96) and Steelers (-3.24). Though there's a wide gap between these two things happening, this is a game that will be played on the margins. Will all the controversy surrounding the Patriots make them tentatve, will they come out to prove a point and put up 30+ points or will they be on the edge, rusty and primed for an upset by the Steelers -- something along the lines of giving up 27 points and losing by 3?

Lastly, consider that out of the 5 recent season openers, the HOME team has lost on1y 1 time and covered the other 4 times. Three of those winners were the defending Super Bowl Champions, with the Baltimore Ravens losing on the road.

Pick wisely, come back for Sunday's picks and Enjoy this playlist.

NFL 2012, Week 4: Hedging the Straight-Line (Projections)

9/30/2012		Hedging the Straight-Line
WEEK 4		NFL 2012 Season
		by Guichard Cadet
Home		Away	Hedging		Straight Line	Projected Total Score
Baltimore Ravens		Cleveland Browns	-16.01		-14.15	50.1
Atlanta Falcons		Carolina Panthers	-12.53		-6.75	50.0
Buffalo Bills		New England Patriots	11.59		1.42	61.3
Detroit Lions		Minnesota Vikings	1.32		-4.25	52.8
Houston Texans		Tennessee Titans	-21.74		-9.77	51.7
Kansas City Chiefs		San Diego Chargers	7.20		-2.83	49.8
New York Jets		San Francisco 49ers	-3.45		-4.69	55.0
St. Louis Rams		Seattle Seahawks	6.78		5.31	42.4
Arizona Cardinals		Miami Dolphins	-11.76		-7.56	44.0
Denver Broncos		Oakland Raiders	-8.61		-6.23	49.8
Jacksonville Jaguars		Cincinnati Bengals	-3.76		10.73	53.1
Green Bay Packers		New Orleans Saints	-6.53		-1.13	52.0
Tampa Bay Buccaneers		Washington Redskins	-0.51		3.33	54.5
Philadelphia Eagles		New York Giants	4.34		11.00	47.5
Dallas Cowboys		Chicago Bears	6.93		7.58	45.3