NFL 2012, Week 1: Hedging the Straight-Line (Projections)

9/22/2012		Hedging the Straight-Line (Projections)
WEEK 1		NFL 2012 Season
		by Guichard Cadet
Home		Away	Hedging		Straight Line	Projected Total Score
New York Giants		Dallas Cowboys	-3.96		-3.26	49.0
Chicago Bears		Indianapolis Colts	-6.52		-4.37	38.0
Cleveland Browns		Philadelphia Eagles	14.44		7.47	41.0
New York Jets		Buffalo Bills	-2.31		-2.39	41.0
New Orleans Saints		Washington Redskins	-16.22		-9.26	54.0
Tennessee Titans		New England Patriots	11.27		5.99	53.0
Minnesota Vikings		Jacksonville Jaguars	-9.05		-5.78	36.0
Houston Texans		Miami Dolphins	-8.76		-5.59	43.0
Detroit Lions		St. Louis Rams	-19.92		-11.04	42.0
Kansas City Chiefs		Atlanta Falcons	15.28		7.96	35.0
Green Bay Packers		San Francisco 49ers	-11.64		-7.20	61.0
Tampa Bay Buccaneers		Carolina Panthers	10.19		5.36	41.0
Arizona Cardinals		Seattle Seahawks	6.89		3.83	42.0
Denver Broncos		Pittsburgh Steelers	3.63		2.15	42.0
Baltimore Ravens		Cincinnati Bengals	-4.98		-3.77	46.0
Oakland Raiders		San Diego Chargers	4.30		2.52	46.0

Week 13, 2011: Falcons vs. Texans by EvenMoney

Atlanta Falcons vs. Houston Texans is another game that helps bring this NFL season into better focus because it is an inter-conference matchup that will shed light on whether it was AFC or NFC teams that faced a tougher road within their own conference.

 Courtesy of BestSportHighlights

The Atlanta Falcons are one of four teams battling for 2 remaining playoff spot. They also have a chance to win their division should they win 2 more games than the New Orleans Saints do. For now, let’s focus on the fact they cannot afford to lose many or any of their remaining 5 games. A win today goes a long way to propelling them to the playoffs and/or a shot at the NFC South division, since one of their remaining games is against the Saints.

The Falcons been inconsistent all year and have only beaten one team contending for the playoffs – the Detroit Lions. At the same time, the Falcons are good at everything, except Pass Defense. They rank in the top 15 in almost all categories – top 10 in some. When it comes to Pass Defense, they rank 23^rd with their main problem being getting Sacks. Other than that, the Falcons do enough to allow their balanced offense to put up 23.5 PPG (points per game), offsetting the 20.2 PPG they give up.

On the other side of the field, the Houston Texans have a two-game lead in their division, and unless they suffer a late season losing streak, they are guaranteed a playoff spot. The Texans also have only beaten one opponent that is in playoff contention – the Pittsburgh Steelers. Unlike the Falcons, they are leading their division and will most likely qualify for the playoffs by simply winning 2 of their remaining 5 games.

Another bit of difference between the two teams is that the Texans are ranked 1^st on Defense (4^th for Rushing; 2^nd for Passing). They are 2^nd in Sacks and 1^st in Defensive Pass Percentage. When it comes to Rushing, the Texans Defense is ranked Top 5 in each major category, except Average Yards per Rush (4.2). They also give up only 16.3 PPG.

The Texans feature a Top 10 ranked offense, whose goal is to run over their opponents. They score 26.6 PPG on 380 YPG (yards), with 152 of those yards from their Rushing game. They lead the league in Rushes per game and are second in Rushing TDs per game. Though they do have a decent Passing game (ranked 16^th in the league), this matchup is clearly on whether the Texans Rushing offense will stand up against the Falcons Rushing defense – ranked 2^nd in the league.

NFL PICKS Week 13

Texans (+1.5) Over (38) – It comes down to Matt Ryan against the Houston Texans Defense.

12/4   1:00 ET     Atlanta                 -1.5         At Houston         38

http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_lines.shtml @11/27/11 @ 11:30am

Week 12, 2011: Raiders vs. Bears by EvenMoney

Oakland Raiders vs. Chicago Bears highlights a week where we are very wary of picking underdogs. So, we go to two seemingly evenly-matched teams that were not on our radar this season. Both, especially the Oakland Raiders, are having better than expected seasons. Since they are matched up in pivotal games for each of them, we figured it is time to look into the numbers. From there, project just how serious a threat they are come playoff time.

Courtesy of WILxCHARGERS

If they lose and the Denver Broncos win today, the Raiders will find themselves in a tie with the Broncos for the AFC West lead. This loss could also put their playoffs hope in jeopardy as the AFC second tier of playoff teams is crowded, with 5 other teams trying to secure 2 slots.

The Raiders need this win to convince many, including themselves, that they truly belong atop their division. A loss today could be the start of a four-game losing streak, or they can hold pace and finish by splitting their remaining 6 games for a 10-6 record.

Ironically the Raiders are facing what I see as their NFC counterpart, a team that has benefitted from a major slide by the Detroit Lions. This has allowed the Bears to climb into second place in the NFC North, behind the undefeated Green Bay Packers. But, unlike the Raiders, the remainder of the Bears schedule is relatively weak. A win today and they can easily win 4 of the 5 other remaining games, to finish the season at 12-4.

Besides benefitting from weak schedules, what are the Bears and Raiders doing correctly? They both put up lots of points and have enough strength in both the running and passing game. They do not rank highly in any individual category, with Oakland being the better statistical team, specifically in rushing (4.9 vs. 4.3 yards per rush; and 5.5 more rushes per game).

Defensively, they’re even with the Bears being a run-stopping, low-scoring defense, while the Raiders are a bend but don’t break model.

NFL PICKS Week 12

Raiders (-3) Over (41) – Though not a highlight of our analysis, the absence of Bears QuarterBack Jay Cutler will be the deciding factor because the Raiders will now be able place more emphasis on stopping the run.

11/27 4:05 ET     At Oakland         -3            Chicago                41

http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_lines.shtml @11/27/11 @ 2:00pm

Week 11, 2011: Quick Underdogs

These underdogs teams will not win but are very bad matchups for the favorites.

Courtesy of SportsAddict2324

Favorite	Line	Underdog
At Atlanta	-6.5	Tennessee
At Baltimore	-7	Cincinnati
At Detroit	-7	Carolina
At San Francisco	-10	Arizona
At New England	-15	Kansas City

http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_lines.shtml @11/20/11 @ 10:40am

Week 10, 2011: Quick Underdogs

Quick Underdog Picks That Can Trick You!

Favorite	Line	Underdog
Pittsburgh	-4	At Cincinnati

Bengals and Steelers meet twice in the second half of the season, and are likely to split games. So go with the Home team.

At Dallas

-5.5

Buffalo

Both teams give up a lot of points and score as many. The line is the concern, though ‘Boys are likely to win.

At Chicago

-3

Detroit

Bears are too up/down, and Lions need to get back on track.

Courtesy of 495Traffik

At San Francisco

-4

NY Giants

A defensive struggle but Eli is really making the case that he’s a Top-ranked QB in the league.

At NY Jets

-2

New England

Toss up game because it’s at the Jets, but Patriots offense still can put up 24 on a bad day.

http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_lines.shtml @11/13/11 @ 11:40am

Week 9, 2011: Steelers vs Ravens by EvenMoney

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens is our featured game for this week. Though there are two other AFC games that made a case to be the focus, these two teams face a similar situation, in that they can end the season with only one more loss. That loss would be to the Cincinnati Bengals, which they both play two more times. Even if either team loses to another team on their schedule, this week’s game will most likely determine the winner of the AFC Central division.

Add to that, barring a total collapse by two teams in the AFC East division, only 2 teams from the Central will make the playoffs. The Steelers lead the division but they got shellacked (35-7) by the Ravens in Week One. Another loss to this same team and with the risk of finishing in a tie, the Steelers must win this game. They happen to be catching the Ravens at a very good point of the season.

RAVENS VS. CARDINALS HIGHLIGHTS Week 8, 2011

Courtesy of 82PeRK

The Ravens won their last game, after trailing the Arizona Cardinals by 21 points and lost (the week before) to the Jacksonville Jaguars in a game that exposed their offensive ineptitude. The Ravens win because of their top-ranked (#1 overall, #3 passing and rushing) defense. The defense doesn’t give up points or too many yards, and places the offense in short-field positions to start drives. Unfortunately, QuarterBack Joe Flacco is having a down year (pretty much across the board), specifically in Pass Percentage (53.8%).

STEELERS VS. PATRIOTS HIGHLIGHTS Week 8, 2011

Courtesy of Slim47247

The Ravens take this unbalanced show on the road against a Steelers team that just finished outmuscling the New England Patriots. The Steelers have won four in a row and boast the league’s 2^nd ranked defense, which happens to be ranked 1st against the passing game. The key factor will be whether they can out-tough the Ravens.

DEFENSE

Sacks: Ravens 25; Steelers 20

INTs: Ravens 7; Steelers 2

Fumbles: Ravens 14; Steelers 3

OFFENSE

Sacks: Ravens 16; Steelers 25

INTs: Ravens 7; Steelers 6

Fumbles: Ravens 3; Steelers 2

Offensively, the teams are evenly matched in the punishment they dole out and are willing to take to protect the ball. But, defensively, the Ravens dish it out much more and are much more opportunistic.

NFL PICKS Week 9

Ravens (+3) Under (42) – Look for the Ravens to refocus, now that the competition is on their level.

11/6 8:30 ET At Pittsburgh -3 Baltimore 42

http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_lines.shtml @11/06/11 @ 9:45pm

Week 8, 2011: Seven on Sunday

Our 7 favorites this Sunday with comments

Favorite	Line	Underdog	Comments
At Tennessee	-8.5	Indianapolis	Two teams coming off ugly blowout losses, but Titans still have hope, while Colts are winless.
New Orleans	-13.5	At St. Louis	Though the points are high, Rams are winless and season-high score is 16 points.
At NY Giants	-9.5	Miami	Giants have been up and down but Dolphins are another winless team that cannot score more than 16 points.
At Buffalo (Toronto)	-4.5	Washington	Bills are going to score 24+ points. Skins have scored 20 and under for 4 straight weeks.
Detroit	-3	At Denver	Look for Lions to stop losing skid so don’t let the Broncos win over Dolphins fool you!
At San Francisco	-9	Cleveland	Niners have been on a roll, while Browns struggle to score points
San Diego	-3	At Kansas City	Toughest of these picks and it’s a question of whether the Chiefs have really turned it around.

http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_lines.shtml @10/30/11 @ 10:00am