EvenMoney’s NBA Draft 2011 – Top 5 Centers, #4

#4 – Jordan Williams

Jordan Williams has just about the size - listed as 6’9” and 250 (to 260) pounds - and athleticism to play Center in the NBA. Since he does not possess great offensive polish, though he scored double digits in college, the areas in which he surpassed collegiate expectations will not play out in the NBA.

We expect his production to go down by nearly 50 percent. Though he does have strength and youthfulness on his side, the nearly 17 points and 12 rebounds this past season will not translate. Still not convinced? Ponder the stats below and press play!

Video courtesy of jonathantjarks

C	Jordan Williams
	BPM		PCM	DIR	TPA
Rank	33.33	11.00		41.50	53.00

Out of 138 players:

·        Jordan Williams is a first-round pick in only one of the 4 metrics, the one that measures overall production.  We don’t foresee him having the opportunity to log enough minutes and/or possessions to achieve those numbers.

·        We project him to be picked in the second round - an average of his defense and skill-set -– 47 or so.

·        Considered as a whole (BPM), as well as for each specialty (PCM for Production; DIR for Defense; and TPA (Talent/Skill-set).

EvenMoney’s NBA Draft 2011 – Top 5 Centers, #3

#3 – Josh Harrellson

Josh Harrellson is listed as 6’10” and 275 pounds, which, in this draft, negates the fact that neither his offensive nor defensive numbers jump out at you. He’s a player that will come off the bench to spell a team’s key players, give out some fouls while blocking the paint.

Harrellson did not play much his previous two seasons but when given the opportunity this past season, he made the most of it by blocking some shots and making a few steals. Still not convinced? Ponder the stats below and press play!

Video courtesy of tjbeisner

C	Josh Harrellson
	BPM		PCM		DIR	TPA
Rank	53.00	54.00		20.25		111.00

 Out of 138 players:

·        JoshHarrellson is a first-round pick in only one of the 4 metrics, the one that measures defensive integrity.

·        We project him as a late second round pick, near the end of the draft.

·        Considered as a whole (BPM), as well as for each specialty (PCM for Production; DIR for Defense; and TPA (Talent/Skill-set).

EvenMoney’s NBA Draft 2011 – Top 5 Centers, #2

#2 – Keith Benson

Keith Benson is a gamble that a contending team can take, or a project player for a rebuilding team. Though he has the height to play Center in the NBA, he is slight of frame and needs to pack on 30+ pounds.

At first, he will mainly be a weak-side defender who will struggle in the post,  but he is agile enough to pair with a lumbering Power Forward. Or does a team play him as the PF on defense?

Benson has enough offensive ability to match his defensive identity but it really is a question of fit.  Benson blocked 127 shots but unfortunately he played at a small basketball school and a lower-tiered conference.

Still not convinced? Ponder the stats below and press play!

Video courtesy of KitoB34

C	Keith Benson
	BPM		PCM	DIR	TPA
Rank	11.99	2.67		1.75	45.00

 Out of 138 players:

·        Keith Benson is a first-round pick in 3 of the 4 metrics – lottery. Once you factor in that he played at Oakland University and his lack of bulk, how much of a drop is he?

·        We feel he is worth a gamble for perennial lower-tiered playoff team, anywhere from pick 23 to 30.

·        Considered as a whole (BPM), as well as for each specialty (PCM for Production; DIR for Defense; and TPA (Talent/Skill-set).

EvenMoney’s NBA Draft 2011 – Top 5 Centers, #1

#1 – Nikola Vucevic

A college Center is not automatically a NBA Center, primarily because of size (height/weight). After that we factor in skill-set - advantages and limitations. This particular draft year, there is no one dominant Center coming out of the colleges. Each of our ranked Centers has one requirement and, with some luck, the chance to develop a second requirement needed to be an effective NBA Center.

Vucevic is the type of Center to pair with a dominant Power Forward who can cover his defensive limitations. He is a seven-footer, with good shooting touch and ball-handling skills, enough to help facilitate an offense in the high post.

Still not convinced? Ponder the stats below and press play!

Video courtesy of DC4judicial

C	Nikola Vucevic
	BPM		PCM	DIR	TPA
Rank	39.48	17.00		52.25	51.00

Out of 138 players:

·        Nikola Vucevic is a first-round pick in only 1 of the 4 metrics, the one that measures overall production. Our projection is first round from 17 to 25.

·        He has the size and the skill to be a solid pro.

·        Considered as a whole (BPM), as well as for each specialty (PCM for Production; DIR for Defense; and TPA (Talent/Skill-set).

EvenMoney’s NBA Draft 2011 – Top 10 Power Forwards, #10

#10 – Jerai Grant (or) Tristan Thompson (or) Papa Dia

Jerai Grant, Tristan Thompson and Papa Dia are players a team drafts for defense and hopes their offense catches up. Though Dia has the more polished offensive game, upside and previous level of competition night in, night out are our big questions.

For Jerai, the question is whether he has maxed out his potential since he is a senior. What he provides now does give him a role on a team’s bench but not much more.

Tristan has question marks regarding his offense – lack of range, inefficiency, poor Free Throw shooting, he is leaving school as a Freshman with the same defensive skill-set as the other two.

Still not convinced? Ponder the stats below and press play!

Video courtesy of lordseal92

Video courtesy of CityLeagueHoopsTV

Video courtesy of SMUMustangsAthletics

PF	Jerai Grant
	BPM	PCM	DIR	TAP
Rank	25.66	36.33	9.25	39.00

PF	Tristan Thompson
	BPM	PCM	DIR	TAP
Rank	33.46	43.00	8.00	65.00

PF	Papa Dia
	BPM	PCM	DIR	TAP
Rank	19.42	10.67	15.00	41.00

Out of 138 players:

·       Jerai Grant, Tristan Thompson and Papa Dia are second round picks – early 30’s, unless a team gambles.

·    Tristan might be that gamble because he is younger, or it could be Dia because of of his offensive game, that features rage out to 20 feet.

·     Considered as a whole (BPM), as well as for each specialty (PCM for Production; DIR for Defense; and TPA (Talent/Skill-set).

EvenMoney’s NBA Draft 2011 – Top 10 Power Forwards, #9

#9 – Kenneth Faried

Kenneth Faried is the player most likely to wreck your draft board. Take that as a positive and a negative! Some are reporting there’s a team or two thinking of taking him Top 10.

Though we like Faried very much, enough to compare him (favorably) to Taj Gibson; enough to put him over some players from top schools, we have some reservations, namely his height and what position and/or role he will play and whether he can score in the NBA.

Other than that, we think his athleticism, energy and rebounding prowess will translate well into the league. Still not convinced? Ponder the stats below and press play!

Video courtesy of 2tone973

 

PF	Kenneth Faried
	BPM		PCM	DIR	TPA
Rank	4.92	1.00		3.25	14.00

 Out of 138 players:

·        Kenneth Faried is a first-round pick in all 4 metrics. The major knock against him is that he played at Morehead State and did not face top competition.

·        He’s worth the risk at 14 to 20 because of his defense and rebounding.

·        Considered as a whole (BPM), as well as for each specialty (PCM for Production; DIR for Defense; and TPA (Talent/Skill-set).

EvenMoney’s NBA Draft 2011 – Top 10 Power Forwards, #8

#8 – Marcus Morris

Marcus Morris is the Wax Paper by J-Live player of the draft, in that so much of the song – lyrics, flow and beat – sounds like a metaphor for Marcus’s career and its current crossroads.

He had a twin brother borns in the part

One was dark, one was light, neither was right

Taking turns letting off shots to move crowds

With the needlepoint aim and the infrared sights so they ruled the night

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And don't let the motive be anything more than cold-blooded

Cause then he'll put two times the effort in the caper

When diamond-tipped shells will drop jewels in your dome

Pull out your heart, and wrap it up in wax paper

Song and Lyrics by J-Live; Courtesy of EasyLyrics.org

Marcus in  the same predicament as another NBA twin (Brook Lopez); his game leans more on the offensive side and that has people wondering what it would be like if he and brother Markieff were melded.

We don’t feel that is necessary because Marcus is one iota away from being a complete two-way player. He needs to increase output and/or performance in the following categories: 3pt shooting (35%); FT shooting (69%); while adding a few more Blocks and Steals.

As the song says, all he has to do is “put two times the effort in the caper”. Still not convinced? Ponder the stats below and press play!

Video courtesy of TheDraftReview

PF	Marcus Morris
	BPM		PCM	DIR	TPA
Rank	58.76	13.33		75.25	99.00

 Out of 138 players:

·        Marcus Morris is a first-round pick in only 1 of the 4 metrics, the one that factors in overall production. Our projection is first round 13 to 18.

·        Luckily for him, many teams draft utilizing only that metric. For Marcus to justify such a high pick, he has to put in the gym work.

·        Considered as a whole (BPM), as well as for each specialty (PCM for Production; DIR for Defense; and TPA (Talent/Skill-set).

EvenMoney’s NBA Draft 2011 – Top 10 Power Forwards, #7

#7 – Matt Howard

Matt Howard is that supporting big man who helps a team gets to the next level. He stretches the floor with a solid jumper (40% on 3pters) so Guards can slash and Centers have operating room.

We like the fact that he improved each of his four years at Butler, a mid-major team that made back-to-back NCAA Tournament Finals appearances (2010 and 2011). Matt rebounds, has a nice all-around offensive game, and also plays enough defense to not be a liability when he’s on the floor.  

Still not convinced? Ponder the stats below and press play!

Video courtesy of getbangedon

PF	Matt Howard
	BPM		PCM	DIR	TPA
Rank	40.14	30.33		61.75	16.00

 Out of 138 players:

·    Matt Howard is a first-round pick in only 1 of the 4 metrics, the one that calculates all-around skill/talent. He could go anywhere from 16 to 32.

·     Taking him at 16 is a big risk because we do question upside. But if a team feels ready to compete for a title, then it makes sense.

·     Considered as a whole (BPM), as well as for each specialty (PCM for Production; DIR for Defense; and TPA (Talent/Skill-set).

EvenMoney’s NBA Draft 2011 – Top 10 Power Forwards, #6

#6 – Justin Harper

Justin Harper is a legit 3point shooter with a back to the basket game. The key question hinges on whether he will do best as a versatile PF or be used as a rugged Small Forward.

His offensive game, complete with 45% from three-point land makes him a very safe pick. Justin can impact the game in many ways but does need to improve his playmaking and commit a bit more to the defensive side.

Still not convinced? Ponder the stats below and press play!

Video courtesy of smyrnall

PF	Justin Harper
	BPM		PCM	DIR	TPA
Rank	28.57	19.67		45.25	12.00

 Out of 138 players:

·        Justin Harper is a first-round pick in 3 of the 4 metrics, and his defense is not so far off that it pushes him too far down.

·        This is a player a team executive can gamble on and pick anywhere from12 to 19 and not get fired years later for that choice.

·        Considered as a whole (BPM), as well as for each specialty (PCM for Production; DIR for Defense; and TPA (Talent/Skill-set).