EvenMoney’s NBA Draft 2011 – Top 5 Shooting Guards, #2

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#2 – Klay Thompson

Klay Thompson’s jumper is fuego. That’s all you really need to know when it comes to why we chose to rank him the #2 SG in this draft. Klay is not a guy who you’re going to pin as your number one offensive option every night. But he can and will give you good offensive production backed by good defense.

We like his all-around game and ability to play within a team’s concept. Though we worry about his handle/speed combination when it comes to creating his own shot on the NBA level, he can be a playmaker. Oh…Did we mention that his jumper is money, as in nearly 40% from three-point land.

Still not convinced? Ponder the stats below and press play!

Video courtesy of argus1948

SG	Klay Thompson
	BPM		PCM	DIR	TAP
Rank	20.29	31.00		21.25	2.00

Out of 138 players:

·         Though Klay would be a first round pick in 3 of the 4 metrics, he might not get drafted until the mid-20’s.

·         He has to learn not to force shots and become a better rebounder.

·         Considered as a whole (BPM), as well as for each specialty (PCM for Production; DIR for Defense; and TPA (Talent/Skill-set).

EvenMoney’s NBA Draft 2011 – Top 5 Shooting Guards, #1

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#1 – Marshon Brooks

Marshon Brooks is a scorer and defender. Right now the NBA is in serious need of two-way Shooting Guards with enough size. This is the main reason we have seen the rise of “Combo Guards” – Point Guards who are more scorers but leave their team at a disadvantage when the coach decides to play them next to another Point Guard.

In order to become elite or play on an All-Star level, Marshon will need to extend the range on his jumpshot, as well as become more of a playmaker. You ask, with these two major knocks, how is he our top-ranked SG?

One: Defense! Two: Scoring! Marshon solves those needs and puts numbers across the board. Still not convinced? Ponder the stats below and press play!

Video courtesy of Pete75227

SG	Marshon Brooks
	BPM		PCM		DIR	TAP
Rank	12.31	11.00		18.00		4.00

 Out of 138 players:

·         Marshon would be a first round pick in all 4 of the metrics.

·         His production and defense makes him a very safe pick, someone that could go Top 10, with very little “bust factor”.

·         Needs to improve three-point shooting.

·         Considered as a whole (BPM), as well as for each specialty (PCM for Production; DIR for Defense; and TPA (Talent/Skill-set).

EvenMoney’s NBA Draft 2011 – Top 5 Point Guards, #5

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 #5 – Charles Jenkins

Charles Jenkins put up numbers that if he played at a major school, he would be a Top 5 Pick. The math looks like this: 22.6 PPG on FG 51.7%; 2pt FG% 56.3%; and 3pt FG% 42%. Source - http://draftexpress.com

This is when playing for a smaller school in a conference ranked less than a mid-major hurts your draft stock. It also doesn't help that Hofstra didn't make the 2011 NCAA Tournament while conference rivals George Mason University and Old Dominion University got to the big dance.

Yes, Jenkins is more of a scoring Point Guard, but that is how the NBA is trending. He also dished out 4.8 APG so we know he has play-making abilities. Still not convinced? Ponder the stats below and press play!

Video courtesy of Jhood90

PG	Charles Jenkins
	BPM		PCM	DIR	TAP
Rank	17.27	12.00		28.50	5.00

 Out of 138 players:

·         Jenkins would be a first round pick in all 4 of the metrics.

·         His defense will be another factor pushing him up the charts. Might go early 20’s.

·         Still more of Shooting Guard but should not have any problems making the transition.

·         Considered as a whole (BPM), as well as for each specialty (PCM for Production; DIR for Defense; and TPA (Talent/Skill-set).

EvenMoney’s NBA Draft 2011 – Top 5 Point Guards, #4

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#4 – Nolan Smith

Nolan Smith is the Alicia Keys song of this draft, and the current selection is Fallin’. Many other draft prognosticators seem to agree with me, as he keeps slipping down many boards. For this fourth slot, one day, I’m thinking Reggie Jackson; the next: Malcolm Delaney, Preston Knowles, Isaiah Thomas, Brandon Knight…and so on.

Then it comes back to - perhaps I’m seeing Nolan through Rose-colored glasses. Well if I were, would I have chosen a Duke PG as my second…but wait shouldn’t Kyrie Irving be first? You see what I mean? When Duke PGs come to mind, I think of Bobby Hurley and Jay Williams, the ones who, if it were not for career-ending injuries, could have amended any apprehensions people have with Duke PGs and players, in general.

If I were looking for a safe pick, I would not be on that Nolan Smith flow ‘cause I know he’s only a consistent three-pointer away from being certified. Keep in mind that his ability to play both Guard positions kept Duke on top throughout the season, even after Kyrie went down with injury.

Still not convinced? Ponder the stats below and press play!

Video courtesy of Thepremierplayers

 

PG	Nolan Smith
	BPM		PCM	DIR	TAP
Rank	50.92	25.00		85.00	29.00

 Out of 138 players:

·         Nolan will be a mid to late first rounder, gone by the 25^th pick.

·         Many view him as more of an undersized Shooting Guard.

·         His defense is what pushed him downward. His handle is what kept him afloat.

·         Considered as a whole (BPM), as well as for each specialty (PCM for Production; DIR for Defense; and TPA (Talent/Skill-set).

EvenMoney’s NBA Draft 2011 – Top 5 Point Guards, #3

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#3 - Jimmer Fredette

First, I’ll put it out there - the hype surrounding Jimmer is ridiculous, in the colloquial and literal sense. He is being followed by a production crew that has created a youtube channel to cover his journey to the draft. Sounds a bit much? How about this song, Teach Me How To Jimmer?

Under normal circumstances, this type of hype would turn me off completely to a player. But Jimmer is not normal, not when it comes to offense, specifically his first step and his jumper. The main knocks on him deal with his lack of defense, whether he’s a shoot-first Point Guard, and that he came from a school (BYU) that did not face top competition night-in, night-out.

Sounds familiar? Yes, Stephen Curry! As you can see Curry’s numbers eclipsed Jimmer’s but he did play at lesser renowned school! Even with all of these factors, Jimmer will have a positive impact in the right system and team.

Still not convinced? Ponder the stats below and press play!

Video courtesy of eagleye1144

PG	Jimmer Fredette
	BPM		PCM	DIR		TAP
Rank	34.99	6.67			77.75	1.00

Out of 138 players:

·         The positive: Jimmer can score with the best of them and will boost fan appreciation.

·         The negative: he needs to develop a defensive identity or he will become an off the bench player, a spark plug.

·         Considered as a whole (BPM), as well as for each specialty (PCM for Production; DIR for Defense; and TPA for Talent/Skill-set).

EvenMoney’s NBA Draft 2011 – Top 5 Point Guards, #2

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#2 - Kyrie Irving (Adjustment)

All sounds and signs point to Kyrie Irving being the overall #1 pick in the upcoming NBA Draft. Since he only played 11 games, we contacted The Adjustment Bureau, so that his total numbers could compete with his peers. Even before that outreach, his “per minute” and “per game” numbers showed that he might have been the overall leader on our stats board, had it not been for the injury.

The thing with adjusting for injuries is that there have been two recent overall #1 picks – Kenyon Martin and Greg Oden – for which draft boards have done this. Kenyon rebounded from his injuries and has gone on to have a productive care, and the jury is still out on Oden.

In Kyrie’s case the injury does not appear to be of a chronic nature, and he did return in the NCAA tournament to post numbers comparable to his pre-injury performance. What truly makes him standout is that he takes good shots and makes them at the following clip: FG overall, 52.9%; 2ptFG, 56.9%; 3pt FG, 46.2%; and FT, 90.1%. Source - http://draftexpress.com

Still not convinced? Ponder the stats below and press play!

Video courtesy of MarangellysLuna

PG	Kyrie Irving Adjustment
	BPM		PCM		DIR		TAP
Rank	24.35	15.33		38.25		13.00

Out of 138 players:

·         Though we made the adjustment for Total games, we kept the Averages for all other stats including minutes.

·         Even with this limitation, Kyrie would be a first round pick in 3 of the metrics, and slightly out of the first round for defense.

·         Considered as a whole (BPM), as well as for each specialty (PCM for Production; DIR for Defense; and TPA for Talent/Skill-set).

EvenMoney’s NBA Draft 2011 – Top 5 Point Guards, #1

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#1 - Keep Earning Money Breaking Ankles Walker!!

Yes, I went with Kemba Walker.  Not just because he repeatedly broke ankles during the Big East Tournament, but simply because he stayed healthy and played 41 games – putting up big numbers. I know he’s not going to be the #1 overall pick like the rumored, rival Point Guard.

What I do know when it comes to Kemba is that he has a sick handle, makes the big shots and led the UConn Huskies to the  national title. Still not convinced? Ponder the stats below and press play!

Video courtesy of MegaViewification

PG	Kemba Walker
	BPM	PCM	DIR	TAP
Rank	22.43	11.33	33.75	19.00

Out of 138 players:

·         Kemba would be a first round pick in 3 of the metrics, and slightly out of the first round for defense.

·         He can go as high as before the 11^th pick or but not past the 34^th pick.

·         Considered as a whole (BPM), as well as for each specialty (PCM for Production; DIR for Defense; and TPA (Talent/Skill-set).

Even Money's NCCA Bracket Rankings

I'm running with the model I created last year (2010) for the NCAA Tournament.

It picked 26 out of 32 First Round match-ups, and 9 out of 16 Second Round match-ups. Then, the upsets came and I only got one Final Four team (Duke).

All you have to do is go through the bracket and pick the "higher ranked" team, regardless of seeding. As you will see, the top ranked teams are expected to go through, since the model is straight math and I've not geared it to pick upsets. Upsets come into play when the selection committee over/under-estimate a team.

Do tweak the selections as you see fit! Let me know how it goes for you!

Rank	Team Name	Conference	Ten Scale / Win
1	Kansas	Big 12	8.00
2	Ohio St.	Big Ten	8.00
3	Duke	Atlantic Coast	7.20
4	San Diego St.	Mountain West	7.00
5	Utah St.	Western Athletic	6.50
6	Pittsburgh	Big East	6.40
7	BYU	Mountain West	6.30
8	Texas	Big 12	6.00
9	Arizona	Pacific 10	6.00
10	Notre Dame	Big East	6.00
11	Florida	Southeastern	5.80
12	North Carolina	Atlantic Coast	5.80
13	Syracuse	Big East	5.80
14	Belmont	Atlantic Sun	5.60
15	Purdue	Big Ten	5.60
16	Cincinnati	Big East	5.40
17	Connecticut	Big East	5.40
18	Kentucky	Southeastern	5.40
19	Richmond	Atlantic 10	5.20
20	Louisville	Big East	5.20
21	Texas A&M	Big 12	5.10
22	Wisconsin	Big Ten	5.00
23	Long Island	Northeast	4.80
24	Temple	Atlantic 10	4.80
25	Old Dominion	Colonial	4.60
26	Xavier	Atlantic 10	4.60
27	Vanderbilt	Southeastern	4.60
28	Washington	Pacific 10	4.60
29	Missouri	Big 12	4.50
30	George Mason	Colonial	4.40
31	UNLV	Mountain West	4.40
32	Memphis	Conference USA	4.40
33	UCLA	Pacific 10	4.40
34	Kansas St.	Big 12	4.30
35	Florida St.	Atlantic Coast	4.20
36	Georgetown	Big East	4.20
37	Princeton	Ivy	4.10
38	Gonzaga	West Coast	4.10
39	UAB	Conference USA	4.00
40	Georgia	Southeastern	4.00
41	Villanova	Big East	4.00
42	St. John's (NY)	Big East	4.00
43	Clemson	Atlantic Coast	4.00
44	Bucknell	Patriot	3.80
45	West Virginia	Big East	3.80
46	Hampton	Mid Eastern	3.50
47	Oakland	Summit	3.50
48	Michigan	Big Ten	3.30
49	Morehead St.	OVC	3.20
50	Marquette	Big East	3.20
51	Illinois	Big Ten	3.20
52	Butler	Horizon	3.10
53	Tennessee	Southeastern	3.00
54	Southern California	Pacific 10	3.00
55	Penn St.	Big Ten	3.00
56	Michigan St.	Big Ten	2.90
57	VCU	Colonial	2.80
58	Akron	Mid American	2.50
59	Indiana St.	Missouri Valley	2.50
60	Northern Colo.	Big Sky	2.40
61	Wofford	Southern	2.20
62	Boston U.	America East	2.00
63	St. Peter's	Metro Atlantic	1.80
64	UNC Asheville	Big South	1.30
65	UTSA	Southland	1.30
66	UC Santa Barbara	Big West	1.20
67	UALR	Sun Belt	0.80
68	Alabama St.	Southwestern	0.20