I'm running with the model I created last year (2010) for the NCAA Tournament.
It picked 26 out of 32 First Round match-ups, and 9 out of 16 Second Round match-ups. Then, the upsets came and I only got one Final Four team (Duke).
All you have to do is go through the bracket and pick the "higher ranked" team, regardless of seeding. As you will see, the top ranked teams are expected to go through, since the model is straight math and I've not geared it to pick upsets. Upsets come into play when the selection committee over/under-estimate a team.
Do tweak the selections as you see fit! Let me know how it goes for you!
| Rank | Team Name | Conference | Ten Scale / Win |
| 1 | Kansas | Big 12 | 8.00 |
| 2 | Ohio St. | Big Ten | 8.00 |
| 3 | Duke | Atlantic Coast | 7.20 |
| 4 | San Diego St. | Mountain West | 7.00 |
| 5 | Utah St. | Western Athletic | 6.50 |
| 6 | Pittsburgh | Big East | 6.40 |
| 7 | BYU | Mountain West | 6.30 |
| 8 | Texas | Big 12 | 6.00 |
| 9 | Arizona | Pacific 10 | 6.00 |
| 10 | Notre Dame | Big East | 6.00 |
| 11 | Florida | Southeastern | 5.80 |
| 12 | North Carolina | Atlantic Coast | 5.80 |
| 13 | Syracuse | Big East | 5.80 |
| 14 | Belmont | Atlantic Sun | 5.60 |
| 15 | Purdue | Big Ten | 5.60 |
| 16 | Cincinnati | Big East | 5.40 |
| 17 | Connecticut | Big East | 5.40 |
| 18 | Kentucky | Southeastern | 5.40 |
| 19 | Richmond | Atlantic 10 | 5.20 |
| 20 | Louisville | Big East | 5.20 |
| 21 | Texas A&M | Big 12 | 5.10 |
| 22 | Wisconsin | Big Ten | 5.00 |
| 23 | Long Island | Northeast | 4.80 |
| 24 | Temple | Atlantic 10 | 4.80 |
| 25 | Old Dominion | Colonial | 4.60 |
| 26 | Xavier | Atlantic 10 | 4.60 |
| 27 | Vanderbilt | Southeastern | 4.60 |
| 28 | Washington | Pacific 10 | 4.60 |
| 29 | Missouri | Big 12 | 4.50 |
| 30 | George Mason | Colonial | 4.40 |
| 31 | UNLV | Mountain West | 4.40 |
| 32 | Memphis | Conference USA | 4.40 |
| 33 | UCLA | Pacific 10 | 4.40 |
| 34 | Kansas St. | Big 12 | 4.30 |
| 35 | Florida St. | Atlantic Coast | 4.20 |
| 36 | Georgetown | Big East | 4.20 |
| 37 | Princeton | Ivy | 4.10 |
| 38 | Gonzaga | West Coast | 4.10 |
| 39 | UAB | Conference USA | 4.00 |
| 40 | Georgia | Southeastern | 4.00 |
| 41 | Villanova | Big East | 4.00 |
| 42 | St. John's (NY) | Big East | 4.00 |
| 43 | Clemson | Atlantic Coast | 4.00 |
| 44 | Bucknell | Patriot | 3.80 |
| 45 | West Virginia | Big East | 3.80 |
| 46 | Hampton | Mid Eastern | 3.50 |
| 47 | Oakland | Summit | 3.50 |
| 48 | Michigan | Big Ten | 3.30 |
| 49 | Morehead St. | OVC | 3.20 |
| 50 | Marquette | Big East | 3.20 |
| 51 | Illinois | Big Ten | 3.20 |
| 52 | Butler | Horizon | 3.10 |
| 53 | Tennessee | Southeastern | 3.00 |
| 54 | Southern California | Pacific 10 | 3.00 |
| 55 | Penn St. | Big Ten | 3.00 |
| 56 | Michigan St. | Big Ten | 2.90 |
| 57 | VCU | Colonial | 2.80 |
| 58 | Akron | Mid American | 2.50 |
| 59 | Indiana St. | Missouri Valley | 2.50 |
| 60 | Northern Colo. | Big Sky | 2.40 |
| 61 | Wofford | Southern | 2.20 |
| 62 | Boston U. | America East | 2.00 |
| 63 | St. Peter's | Metro Atlantic | 1.80 |
| 64 | UNC Asheville | Big South | 1.30 |
| 65 | UTSA | Southland | 1.30 |
| 66 | UC Santa Barbara | Big West | 1.20 |
| 67 | UALR | Sun Belt | 0.80 |
| 68 | Alabama St. | Southwestern | 0.20 |
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