NFL 2016 Week 11 TNF: Saints Panthers - Hedging the Straight Line

For tonight's game: 

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers--

1) Saints to WIN by 3.6 points -- projected

2) Panthers to WIN by 0.8 points -- projected

3) Opening Spread -- Panthers (-3.5)

4) Projected O/U 50.40

5) Actual O/U 52.00

NFL 2016 Week 10 TNF: Browns Ravens - Hedging the Straight Line

For tonight's game: 

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens--

1) Browns to lose by 12.5 points -- projected

2) Ravens to lose by 2.4 points -- projected

3) Opening Spread -- Ravens (-9.5)

4) Projected O/U 45.85

5) Actual O/U 44.00

NFL 2016 Week 9 TNF: Falcons Bucs - Hedging the Straight Line

For tonight's game:

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers--

1) Falcons to win by 5 points -- projected

2) Bucs to lose by 2 points -- projected

3) Spread -- Falcons (-3.5)

4) Projected O/U 55.15

5) Actual O/U 51.00

NFL 2016 Week 8 TNF: Jaguars Titans - Hedging the Straight Line

For tonight's game: 

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans--

1) Jaguars to lose by 7.8 points -- projected

2) Titans to lose by 1 point -- projected

3) Spread -- Titans (-3.5)

4) Projected O/U 44.87

5) Actual O/U 43.50

NFL 2016 Week 7 TNF: Bears Packers - Hedging the Straight Line

For tonight's game: 

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers

1) Packers to win by 0.20 points -- projected

2) Bears to lose by 7 points -- projected

3) Spread -- Packers (-7.5)

4) Projected O/U 43.03

5) Actual O/U 46.00

NFL 2016 Week 6 TNF: Broncos Chargers - Hedging the Straight Line

For tonight's game: 

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers--

1) Broncos to win by 5 points -- projected

2) Chargers to lose by 3 points -- projected

3) Opening Spread -- Broncos (-3.5)

4) Projected O/U 44.43

5) Actual O/U 45.00

NFL 2016 Week 5 TNF: Cards Niners - Hedging the Straight Line

For tonight's game: 
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers

1) Cardinals to win by 7 points -- projected

2) Niners to lose by 8 points -- projected

3) Opening Spread -- Cardinals -3.5

4) Projected O/U 44.14

5) Actual O/U 42.00

Skins Eagles, Clinch NFC East - NFL 2015 TNF 16

A win tonight over the Philadelphia Eagles and the Washington Redskins will clinch the NFC East division. Doing so and then beating the Dallas Cowboys next week would have the Skins finish the season 9-7, winners of four straight and provider of respectability for one of this season's much maligned conferences.

A loss in tonight's matchup - Washington At Philadelphia (-3; 49) - will have the NFC East division winner finish at 8-8 or 7-9, but let's hold off on that.

The Skins have been inconsistent all year and have only won two games in a row once, during this current stretch. If they make the playoffs, they would have done so while not beating a team that qualified for this year's playoffs.

The Skins defeated the Eagles earlier this season in a game of two disparate halves, which saw Redskins Quarterback Kirk Cousins make the early case that he's the better of the two quarterbacks.

Cousins bests Eagles Quarterback Sam Bradford in most top statistical categories, including TD/INT ratio, which might prove to be the difference in tonight's game.

At the same time, Bradford has shown the ability to power the Eagles offense, while the Eagles defense continues to struggle against teams with potent passing games.

The Eagles are 6-1 when they score 23+ points and 0-7 when they score less than 23 points.

The Redskins are 6-0 when they score 23+ points and 1-7 when they score less than 23 points.

Tonight's question is simple: Can Kirk Cousins and the Skins offense maintain the consistency of these past two weeks and score 24+ points?

Both teams' defenses give up over 23 points a game, with the Skins having the statistical advantage by 2.2 points.

The numbers are unanimous for the Skins, especially with the 3 points being given. Still, I do think the Eagles can pull off a win while not covering the spread.

So, I take Skins (OVER) because I think both teams will take more offensive risks. Pick wisely, come back for Sunday's picks and until then let's see if Skins clinch.

Is Jets' Best Good Enough? - NFL 2015 TNF 15

The New York Jets are 8-5 and have one more win than I thought they'd get this season. Most of that credit goes to two people: Head Coach Todd Bowles and Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick.

If the playoffs started today, the Jets would qualify as the sixth seed for the AFC playoffs. Yet, the Jets face long odds to make the playoffs. New York must win all of, or 2 of its final 3 games. In the latter scenario, they would be counting on the Pittsburgh Steelers to also lose one or more games.

The problem with that is the Steelers face only one tough game - this week's matchup with the Denver Broncos. For the Jets, tonight's matchup against the Dallas Cowboys is technically their only easy game. A loss tonight and the Jets give hope to countless teams that are slightly out of the playoff picture.

Looking back on this season, only two of their five losses count as games the Jets should have done better. Even in those games -- Weeks 10 and 11 -- the Jets faced teams that are on their level, with one (Buffalo Bills) being their Week 17 opponent.

Have the Jets done their best and will they continue to do so? Can they win all 3 or even 2 of their remaining games?

Though not dominant, the defense has stabilized, keeping teams to under 25 points in the last 6 weeks. This has led to a 4-2 record where the offense has proven to be the unpredictable force, scoring just 17 points in both losses.

The Jets are 7-1 when they score 21+ points, and 1-5 when they don't. The bottom line is the Dallas Cowboys do not have enough offensive output to beat the New York Jets. The Cowboys are averaging 16.16 points in their last 6 games, scoring under 20 points in 4 of these games.

For tonight, NY Jets At Dallas (+3.5; 41), the question is whether the Cowboys' best good enough to stop the Jets from scoring.

Jets' Head Coach Bowles has shown a lot of confidence in his offense, particularly Ryan Fitzpatrick, who in turn has not thrown too many interceptions. The Cowboys defense can go either way so Fitzpatrick needs to limit his risks.

The numbers tilt at .947 for the New York Jets to win by 6 points.

So, I take Jets (UNDER) because I think Bowles and Fitzpatrick know what's at stake. Pick wisely, come back for Sunday's picks and until then always do your best.

Can Teddy Bridge The Gap? - NFL 2015 TNF 14

At no time does the saying "Defense wins championships" ring truer than this NFL season. Of the 12 teams that are best situated to make the playoffs, 10 of them are ranked tops in Defense. The two that are not are the division leaders for the NFC East and AFC South.

Though ranked fifth in points per game, the Minnesota Vikings defense is coming off a humbling experience, having given up 38 points this past Sunday. The Vikings also gave up 30 points in Week 11 against the Green Bay Packers.

Even before the injuries on the defensive side of the ball, coming into tonight's game, one could see what type of teams give the Vikings defense problems. The Vikings have only beaten one team that would qualify if the playoffs started today.

The Vikings are 1-4 when they give up 20 or more points. In today's NFL that type of offensive production does not work.

Minnesota has to score more and even though the focus is on Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, it is the Vikings' offensive approach that is outdated.



The days of NFL success being measured by having a dominant running back are over. Heading into Week 14:

• 2 running backs have reached 1000 yards
• 10 more running backs can reach 1000 yards for the season, provided they maintain their average weekly output
• of these 12 running backs, only 5 of their teams would qualify if the playoffs started today

Gone also are the days, where a quarterback throwing for 3000 yards meant the team's passing was on point.

• 12 quarterbacks have reached 3000 yards; only 4 of their teams would qualify if the playoffs started today
• 13 more quarterbacks can reach 3000 yards for the season, provided they maintain their average weekly output

Minnesota Vikings Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater (2398 yards) sits near the bottom of the 25 quarterbacks on pace to reach 3000 yards. Since this is only his second year in the NFL, there is much time for improvement.

With the playoffs on the horizon, an ailing defense and tonight's matchup - Minnesota At Arizona (-10.5; 46.5) - how soon can Teddy bridge the gap of a past NFL era to today's, where dominance is measured by throwing for 4000 yards?

Of the 21 quarterbacks on pace to throw for 4000 yards, 9 of their teams would qualify if the playoffs started today. This, in itself, is a great measuring stick because the other two quarterbacks and teams that fall short do so because of injuries.

Bridgewater has the opportunities and accuracy but needs to improve on his longer passes, particularly with a dominant running back, Adrian Peterson who leads the NFL in Rushing Yards.

The numbers point toward the Arizona Cardinals (.632) to win by 9 points, and that 3 out of the 4 times the Vikings lost, they did so by 17 or more points.

So, I take Cardinals (OVER) because I see Vikings getting 17 points - not enough to outduel Cardinals. Pick wisely, come back for Sunday's picks and until then get on up and take it to the bridge.

Mean Ole Lions - NFL 2015 TNF 13

The Detroit Lions have a chance to play spoiler to two division rivals in these final weeks of the NFL season. Tonight they face the Green Bay Packers who have lost 4 of their past 5 games, including a loss to Detroit.

The Lions are all but eliminated from playoff contention unless they win their final 5 games while other teams falter royally down the stretch. This is a disappointing season for the Lions who are coming off a playoff year with 11 wins.

Falling short of early expectations caused many ripples within the Lions organization. In November, the Lions fired their general manager and president. This came days after Head Coach Jim Caldwell got rid of three coaches from the offense, though statistically the drop-off has been on the defensive end. 

Last year the Lions defense gave up 282 points in 16 games (average 17.63 per game). This year they have given up 288 points in only 10 games (average 28.8 per game).

After losing their first 7 of 8 games, the Lions are on a three-game winning streak, that started with their Week 10 win over the Packers. Over this stretch the Lions defense is giving up only 14.33 points per game.

On the other side of the ball, the Green Bay Packers were riding high with a 6-0 record. They have lost 4 of their last 5 games and are struggling to find an identity on both sides of the ball.

The Detroit Lions have not beaten the Green Bay Packers twice in one season since 1999 but the Lions have won the previous two Home games against the Packers.

For this matchup, Green Bay At Detroit (+2.5; 46.5), the numbers point heavily toward the Detroit Lions (.789) to lose by no more than 1 point.

So, I take Lions (UNDER) as I see this as a toss-up game. Pick wisely, come back for Sunday's picks and until then listen to hear how loud the mean ole Lions roar.

Can Green Bay Lead from the Middle of the Pack? NFL 2015 TNF 12

The Green Bay Packers are in a precarious position. They are competing for playoff positioning against two teams: the Minnesota Vikings and the Arizona Cardinals.

Each of these 3 teams have 3 "should win games" on their schedule and they face one another in the coming weeks. Arizona is one game ahead of Green Bay in the NFC, and Green Bay is tied with Minnesota in the NFC North division.

So, Chicago at Green Bay (-8, 45) is not the game for the Packers to try reverting to the style of play from the early part of this season when they won their first 6 games.

The Packers have to come to terms that they are a team that lost 3 games in a row. This past Sunday's win against the Minnesota Vikings put them back on the right track but they are not fully back. Gone should be, in their memory, the attitude they should win games by 10 points.

If the playoffs were to start today, 5 of the 7 teams the Packers beat would not qualify. The Packers defense gives up too many yards. During the first 6 games, they scored first and were able to control the pace. Most of the teams they beat did not feature high octane offenses, which meant the Packers defense could take risks to force TurnOvers.

In today's game, they face a Chicago Bears team that technically cannot hurt them on offense. The Bears are content to score 23 points and let their defense handle the rest.

The Packers beat the Bears 31 - 23 in this year's earlier matchup. The Bears defense has improved since early in the season. Their focus is to not allow big passing plays, which could be seen as a test for Aaron Rodgers.

Conversely, Green Bay can see this as an opportunity to put the past behind them and be content to mainly rush the ball. This will limit the amount of time their defense is on the field.

The numbers point to a win by Green Bay (.842) but not covering the spread, because the Packers are more comfortable in high scoring games. As such, look for that slim chance of a Bears victory (.158).

I take Bears (OVER) even though I see a Packers victory. Pick wisely, come back for Sunday's picks and until then watch out for the leader of the pack.

Jaguars On The Hunt for a Playoff Spot! NFL 2015 TNF 11

Tennessee At Jacksonville (-3; 42.5) signals a chance for the Jacksonville Jaguars to take a sharp turn in the franchise's fortune. The Jaguars have not made the playoffs since the 2007 season.

Since then Jacksonville has not had a winning season. With only a 3-6 record, the Jaguars can only aim for the playoffs because the AFC South division is having a terrible year.

Two teams are tied for first place with a 4-5 record. If Jacksonville wins tonight and both the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans lose on Sunday, there will be a three-way tie for the division.

Even if either or both teams win, the Jaguars can remain just one game off the lead with a win tonight against the 2-7 Tennessee Titans, who are last in the AFC South.



This game comes down to defense. The Jaguars defense has given up 31+ points in 4 games, and 20 points or less in 4 games. Facing a Titans team that has scored 14 points or less in 6 games, this is Jacksonville's chance to make believers of themselves.

On the other side of the ledger, the Titans defense has given up 27+ points in 5 games, and 20 points or less in 4 games. The Jaguars have scored 20+ points in 6 games.

Both teams have been wildly in consistent and no true pattern has evolved, but the Tennessee Titans have only won when they have scored over 34+ points. This can be a question of pace and whether the opponent can run the ball. Jacksonville cannot.

The question: can Jacksonville score 24 points while holding the Titans to under 21 points?

The numbers do not point favorably to either team when it comes to the spread, but Jacksonville is picked at .579 while Tennessee is at .421.

I take Jaguars (OVER). Pick wisely, come back for Sunday's picks and until then watch the Jaguars on the hunt for a playoff spot.

Can Buffalo's Tyrod Taylor Earn His Wings? NFL 2015 TNF 10

The Buffalo Bills (4-4) have not made the playoffs since the season ending 1999. Since then they have finished .500 or better four times, including this past season.

The coaching change to Rex Ryan was supposed to signal a continuation of that winning path, even though he made wholesale changes.

Three losses to division leaders and a slip up against the Jacksonville Jaguars has everyone writing the Buffalo Bills off. Two of these four losses came with starting Quarterback Tyrod Taylor injured.

Head coaches with big personalities, especially ones with a defense first philosophy, often make people think quarterbacks are interchangeable. So far, the Bills have realized this is not the case.



Buffalo's only chance to win lies on Rex's willingness to open up the offense and rely on Taylor's arm, decision-making and legs. For Quarterbacks who have started 4 or more games this season, Taylor is Top Five in QB Rating, Pass Percentage, Passing Yards Per Attempt and Rushing Yards Per Attempt.

Tonight Buffalo At NY Jets (-2; 41.5) pits Taylor against a Jets defense that is still Top 10 in the NFL but has slipped a bit due to recent lapses in the secondary and missed tackles.

After four seasons as a backup in Baltimore, this game is important for Taylor because it's his chance to be in the rising star quarterback conversation.

For the Buffalo Bills, this game is their playoffs. A loss tonight means they will need to finish the season 6-1 to earn a Wild Card spot.

The question: can Buffalo score 24 points? The Jets have not won a game this season when the opponent scores that much or more.

Though the Bills usually score 24+ when Taylor plays, these results are against teams with losing records and poor defenses.

I take Jets (OVER). Pick wisely, come back for Sunday's picks and look forward to the day Tyrod Taylor earns his wings.

What Can Browns Do For You? NFL 2015 TNF 9

With only 10 teams above .500 and 4 of them undefeated, what do you make of NFL 2015? There are three tiers: the undefeateds; the average, at 4+ wins; and the upset-minded.

The Cleveland Browns are of the latter caliber. Up until two weeks ago, before losing to the St. Louis Rams, the Browns looked average, like they could make a slow push to the playoffs.

These past two weeks, with losses at a combined 32 points, have pushed Cleveland down, to the point where no one is giving them a chance to win this Thursday Night Football matchup.

Cleveland at Cincinnati (-11.5; 45) stands as the Browns last chance to salvage the season or merely save face. With Johnny Manziel starting in place of injured Josh McCown, the odds are slim that Cleveland reaches the 28+ points it would take to beat the Bengals.



Cincinnati is one the of undefeated teams, beating opponents by 9.42 points per game. No opponent has scored more than 24 points all season.

That's where division rivalry comes into play. In their two NFC North matchups, the Bengals won by an average of 5 points and had to fight to the bitter end for both wins.

Division rivalries count for something and these two teams have split their past 6 games, with current standing and home field meaning very little. Winners have done so by 10+ points in five of the games.

Cleveland's defense gives up 24 points by seemingly walking on the field; and on average 27 points per game for the year. The weight of this game is on Johnny Manziel's shoulders.

That's a tough order, so I take Bengals (UNDER). Pick wisely, come back for Sunday's picks and look forward to the day Browns can do something for you.

Patriots Walk A Thin Line - NFL 2015 TNF 8

Miami at New England (-8; 51) is a tricky game to pick. The Patriots have won 3 games by 7 points, 1 game by 8 and two others by over 24 points.

Coupled with that, when the Dolphins lose, they do so by 14 points. Since firing their head coach before their Bye week, the Dolphins have won both their games.

Though these wins come against AFC South teams with losing records, the Dolphins scored 38 and 44 points, eclipsing their previous season-high by 18 points.

Going with the theory that the Dolphins have turned the corner, the Patriots only give up 21 points per game, while scoring  a league-leading 35.5 points per game.



The question for tonight's matchup: can New England score over 30 points against a Miami defense that gives up 23 points per game?

I pick Patriots (Over) because the game is at Gillette Stadium and the past two seasons, the HOME team has won with the Patriots winning by 10 or more.

Pick wisely, come back for Sunday's picks and enjoy the message in the song.

How The NFC West Was Lost - NFL 2015 TNF 7

No NFC West team has beaten a team with a winning record, except for San Francisco's Week 1 win against the Minnesota Vikings. To their defense, these losses have come to teams that are likely to win their division.

The major blemish on the Seattle Seahawks record is the loss to division rival St. Louis Rams, a team that also beat NFC West division leading Arizona Cardinals.

So, what ails the Seahawks? They fade in the second half of games, particularly the 4th quarter where they're attempting to nurse the lead, as opposed to blow the opponent away.

The San Francisco 49ers' made wholesale changes in the off-season and are led by rookie head coach by Jim Tomsula. Under this new regime, Quarterback Colin Kaepernick is being asked to do more. This has led to an increase in Interceptions and Fumbles.

The main concern for San Francisco is defensive identity, as in which team will come to play. Will it be the one that has given 30+ points in 3 games? Or the one that has held opponents to 20 or less in 3 games.

The question for tonight's game - Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (+6.5; 42.5) - Can the 49ers offense score over 20 points against the Seahawks defense?

I take Seahawks (UNDER), not knowing which Niners defense shows up. Pick wisely, come back for Sunday's picks and enjoy this playlist.

Atlanta Falcoms - Fly Like An Eagle NFL 2015 TNF 6

Atlanta Falcons At New Orleans Saints (+3; 52.5) is a game the Falcons (5-0) must win. The Falcons have to keep pace with two other NFC division leaders- Green Bay Packers and Arizona Cardinals.

Winning tonight and the next 5 weeks while hoping the Packers falter will be what keeps them from having to travel to Lambeau Field in the dead of winter.

The Falcons also have to be mindful of division rival Carolina Panthers who are also undefeated at 4-0. The Panthers have a tougher schedule these next few weeks, until the two teams meet but nothing is a given.

The Falcons have mounted comebacks in three of their wins, and give up 22.4 points per game, which currently ranks them 15th in the league. They have scored 32.4 points per game, which is likely what they will score tonight.

The New Orleans Saints are having a horrible season, with Quarterback Drew Brees playing through injury. They are currently 1-4 and on paper, at best, I see the Saints winning 6 more games this season.

The Saints are giving up 28.6 points per game and scoring 20.6 points per game, with their highest output being 26 points.

I take Falcons (OVER) and pray they stay above the fray, continuing to fly like an eagle. Pick wisely, come back for Sunday's picks and enjoy this playlist.

Houston Texans - Desperate Times NFL 2015 TNF 5

A tale of two desperate teams: Indianapolis Colts At Houston Texans (-0.5; 41) might just bring a memorable night for the Houston franchise. This is a night where low expectations for the season collide with the reality that the division is there for the taking.

For an expansion franchise, the Houston Texans have seen some good times - two playoff appearances since their birth in 2002. They've only suffered two true expansion team-like seasons, with records of 2-14 in 2003 and 2013. After the latter, they decided to gut the team and start fresh and ended up with a surprising 9-7 record last season, mainly under the legs of Arian Foster.

With starting Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick gone and Foster injured, the Texans have struggled to a 1-3 record. Foster came back last week but did not see much playing time.

On the other side of the ball, the Colts the Colts are struggling this year, under the weight of expectations and an injury to starting Quarterback Andrew Luck.
This is a tough game to call, except the UNDER. The early numbers all point to Houston because they're at home, but as one pulls away and rely on history, Indianapolis balances things out.

Though a 50-50 split on the win, the Colts are at .684 to win by 3 points and the Texans at .316 to win by 2 points.

So, I take COLTS (Under).  Pick wisely, come back for Sunday's picks and enjoy this playlist.

1. Charlie Robison - Desperate Times
2. Randy Rogers Band - Buy Myself A Chance
3. Fat Pat - Tops Drop

Steelers, Michael Vick: Keep On Moving - NFL 2015 TNF 4

Michael Vick and the Pittsburgh Steelers can put the final nail in the Baltimore Ravens season. They really have to if they want to secure their own playoff lives.

The AFC North is the only NFL division that has had two different teams win the Super Bowl this current decade. Teams in this division beat up on each other and, in many ways, either toughen each other up for the playoffs or hurt the other's chances of winning the Super Bowl.

The Baltimore Ravens do not have the same level of defense as their heyday. Even with that fact, I never envisioned them as an 0-3 team. The only true chance they have tonight is that Michael Vick is the Steelers starting quarterback.

In many ways, this does not leave the Ravens with much of a chance, though they're favored. The plan is, as always, contain Vick in the pocket or line of scrimmage, forcing him to be a passer.

With the Ravens giving up nearly 300 Passing Yards Per Game and under 90 Rushing Yards Per Game, this will be a battle of wills.

Both teams have been more comfortable and productive in the passing game. That is where the advantage goes to Baltimore in light of the injury to Ben Roethlisberger.

The question tonight: Can Michael Vick attack the Baltimore secondary?

For scoring, the numbers has this game as toss-up, a two-point margin across both sides of the line, which means Ravens would not cover the 3 points in a win. The percentages has it: Pittsburgh Steelers (.789) and the Baltimore Ravens (.211).

So, I go with Steelers (+3; Under 44).  Pick wisely, come back for Sunday's picks and enjoy this playlist.