NFL 2016 Week 6 MNF Jets Cardinals - Hedging the Straight Line

For tonight's game: 

New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals--

1) Jets to win by 1.38 points -- projected

2) Cardinals to win by 7.17 points -- projected

3) Opening Spread -- Cardinals (-7.5 points)

4) Projected O/U 45.83

5) Actual O/U 46.50

NFL 2015 Week 16 - EvenMoney's Game of the Week (Patriots vs Jets)

New England At NY Jets (-3; 45) has strong playoff implications for both teams. A win for the New England Patriots mean they clinch home field throughout the playoffs. A New York Jets loss does not eliminate them from the playoffs.

This matchup is a chance at redemption for a Jets team that took a lead into the fourth quarter when these two teams met in Week 7. New York led until halfway through the fourth quarter, and then the defense showed the gaps and tendencies that would be exposed in three of the next four games.

Sitting at 5-5, with 4 losses in the AFC division, the Jets have turned their season around. Winners of their last 4 games, the Jets have found a great balance on both sides of the ball. During this stretch, the Jets have averaged 27.5 points, while giving up 16 points.

Though the level of competition was not near what they will face today against the Patriots, the same could be said of the three losses the Jets had after losing to the Patriots.

After beating the Jets in Week 7, the Patriots went on to win 4 straight games. Just as they looked to be streaking toward another undefeated season, the Patriots lost two games in a row. They have since won two straight games but the spectre of dominance is not the same.

The Patriots have battled injuries to key players and are likely resting some to avoid injuries this late in the season. Even with these injuries, the Patriots are still good for their season low mark of 20 points.

The question for this game lies on the Patriots defense, which is giving up less than 20 points over the entire season. This average is a hard split where 7 games fall above that scoring mark, and 7 do not. This says more about level of competition than it does about the Patriots defense's consistency. 

The New York Jets have scored 20+ points in 10 of their 14 games - 8 Wins, 2 Losses. Their defense has held opponents to 20 points or less in 8 games -- all wins.

With the points, this game is a toss-up, a push, where the even money goes to the home team, the Jets  (.526).

So, I take the Jets (UNDER), either looking at a defensive battle or blowout. Pick wisely, come back for Monday's pick and until then watch to see who's the winner.

Is Jets' Best Good Enough? - NFL 2015 TNF 15

The New York Jets are 8-5 and have one more win than I thought they'd get this season. Most of that credit goes to two people: Head Coach Todd Bowles and Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick.

If the playoffs started today, the Jets would qualify as the sixth seed for the AFC playoffs. Yet, the Jets face long odds to make the playoffs. New York must win all of, or 2 of its final 3 games. In the latter scenario, they would be counting on the Pittsburgh Steelers to also lose one or more games.

The problem with that is the Steelers face only one tough game - this week's matchup with the Denver Broncos. For the Jets, tonight's matchup against the Dallas Cowboys is technically their only easy game. A loss tonight and the Jets give hope to countless teams that are slightly out of the playoff picture.

Looking back on this season, only two of their five losses count as games the Jets should have done better. Even in those games -- Weeks 10 and 11 -- the Jets faced teams that are on their level, with one (Buffalo Bills) being their Week 17 opponent.

Have the Jets done their best and will they continue to do so? Can they win all 3 or even 2 of their remaining games?

Though not dominant, the defense has stabilized, keeping teams to under 25 points in the last 6 weeks. This has led to a 4-2 record where the offense has proven to be the unpredictable force, scoring just 17 points in both losses.

The Jets are 7-1 when they score 21+ points, and 1-5 when they don't. The bottom line is the Dallas Cowboys do not have enough offensive output to beat the New York Jets. The Cowboys are averaging 16.16 points in their last 6 games, scoring under 20 points in 4 of these games.

For tonight, NY Jets At Dallas (+3.5; 41), the question is whether the Cowboys' best good enough to stop the Jets from scoring.

Jets' Head Coach Bowles has shown a lot of confidence in his offense, particularly Ryan Fitzpatrick, who in turn has not thrown too many interceptions. The Cowboys defense can go either way so Fitzpatrick needs to limit his risks.

The numbers tilt at .947 for the New York Jets to win by 6 points.

So, I take Jets (UNDER) because I think Bowles and Fitzpatrick know what's at stake. Pick wisely, come back for Sunday's picks and until then always do your best.

NFL 2015 Week 13 - EvenMoney's Game of the Week (Jets vs Giants)

"[D]uck what you heard - who's the best in New York,

Fulfilling fantasies without that [fairy] Mr. Roarke?"

With so many quality matchups this Sunday, the early marketing value is on this clash between the two New York metropolitan area teams, where a loss by either dooms a chance at the playoffs.

For the Giants, the reality is that they must win, at least, 4 out of their last 5 games to finish 9-7 for the season. This is only the starting point because they also need the Washington Redskins to finish no better than 9-7.

For the Jets, they too must finish no less than 9-7 but realistically they too must win 4 out of their last 5 games. A 10-6 record will likely get them into the AFC's tie-breaking discussion.

The mathematical possibilities for both teams are too many to ponder, so the best bet is to focus on this game. 

Historically, the New York Giants are the best NFL team in New York. At the same time, fan adulation is not as lopsided as in Major League Baseball where the New York Yankees dominate the landscape when contrasted to the New York Mets.

For this year, at this moment: Who's the best in New York? The Jets have a better record by one game, but is that enough? The Giants can win their division and make the playoffs with an equal or worse record. The Jets cannot.

Their offensive output is nearly identical with the slight edge going to the Giants mainly because of Points Scored, while the Jets have the superior running game.

Defensively, the two teams are polar opposites. The Jets are very conventional, besting the Giants on points and yardage given and Sacks. The Giants are way better on Interceptions and Fumbles.

The better quarterback conversation is a landslide for the Giants' Eli Manning in all passing categories, while the Jets' Ryan Fitzpatrick can make more happen with his legs and enjoys better pass protection.

Though the Jets have a better starting Receiver tandem in Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker, in this game against secondaries that have struggled, Manning has a better corps of receivers to target, particularly Odell Beckham, Jr.

On the offensive side, the game comes down to the Jets' Chris Ivory, the current best running back in New York. The key reasons are:

• not falling behind early -- only 1 win when trailing at halftime
• 0-3 when Fitzpatrick throws 2 or more Interceptions
• 1-5 when opponent scores 22+ points

Basically, the Jets need Chris Ivory involved throughout for offensive balance in their play calling and to keep their defense off the field because the Giants:

• have scored 24 points in 8 of their 11 games
• 1-5 when opponent scores 24+ points
• 4-1 when opponent scores less than 22 points

With the game being NY Jets At NY Giants (+2.5; 46.5),  the numbers favor the Giants (.842) to win by 2 points simply because the Giants have not had problems scoring.

So, I take the Giants (UNDER) but with Ivory having a big game and helping Jets to a narrow victory. Pick wisely, come back for Monday's pick and until then who do you think is the best in New York?

Can Buffalo's Tyrod Taylor Earn His Wings? NFL 2015 TNF 10

The Buffalo Bills (4-4) have not made the playoffs since the season ending 1999. Since then they have finished .500 or better four times, including this past season.

The coaching change to Rex Ryan was supposed to signal a continuation of that winning path, even though he made wholesale changes.

Three losses to division leaders and a slip up against the Jacksonville Jaguars has everyone writing the Buffalo Bills off. Two of these four losses came with starting Quarterback Tyrod Taylor injured.

Head coaches with big personalities, especially ones with a defense first philosophy, often make people think quarterbacks are interchangeable. So far, the Bills have realized this is not the case.



Buffalo's only chance to win lies on Rex's willingness to open up the offense and rely on Taylor's arm, decision-making and legs. For Quarterbacks who have started 4 or more games this season, Taylor is Top Five in QB Rating, Pass Percentage, Passing Yards Per Attempt and Rushing Yards Per Attempt.

Tonight Buffalo At NY Jets (-2; 41.5) pits Taylor against a Jets defense that is still Top 10 in the NFL but has slipped a bit due to recent lapses in the secondary and missed tackles.

After four seasons as a backup in Baltimore, this game is important for Taylor because it's his chance to be in the rising star quarterback conversation.

For the Buffalo Bills, this game is their playoffs. A loss tonight means they will need to finish the season 6-1 to earn a Wild Card spot.

The question: can Buffalo score 24 points? The Jets have not won a game this season when the opponent scores that much or more.

Though the Bills usually score 24+ when Taylor plays, these results are against teams with losing records and poor defenses.

I take Jets (OVER). Pick wisely, come back for Sunday's picks and look forward to the day Tyrod Taylor earns his wings.

NFL 2015 Week 6 - EvenMoney's Game of the Week (Redskins vs Jets)

The New York Jets can decide their playoff fate by beating the Washington Redskins in today's matchup. A win today and then going, at least, .500 for the rest of the season puts the Jets in control of their chances for a Wild Card spot in the AFC.

Coming into the season, only the most die-hard of fans would have predicted a chance to have a 4-1 record after today's game. With the entire league splitting into a top tier of six teams and another filled with inconsistent wanderers, the Jets Defense have put them in a position to succeed.

Faced with the absence of their starting Quarterback, New York's defense leads the league in Points Against (13.8) and ranks Top 10 in other key defensive categories (Yards, Passing, Rushing and Interceptions).

This bodes well against the Washington Redskins, who only score 19.4 points per game. Both teams run a balanced offense but have had more success Rushing the ball.

Washington's losses have  come late in the game, mainly due to turnovers (Interceptions). The game will be decided by which team's Defense and Special Teams perform better.

This gives the Jets the edge to win the game but the line is currently at Washington Redskins at New York Jets (-8; 40). This movement from the starting line at -5.5 is due to injuries to key Redskins players, mainly Offensive Lineman Trent Williams and Running Back Matt Jones.

Without these factors, this was a toss-up game. With them, the numbers break to Jets (.368) and Redskins (.632).

So, I take the Redskins (UNDER). Pick wisely, come back for Monday's pick and enjoy this playlist/mix.

Can I Get A Jets Fan? - NFL 2015 MNF 2

Upset-minded fans are looking at tonight's matchup of New York Jets At Indianapolis (-6.5; 45) as a continuation of yesterday's many unexpected results. It's really a split decision when it comes to the two true upsets and what the Jets have in common with those teams.

The Tampa Bay Bucs as an AWAY team, slated to lose by roughly 10 points was at best a 50% chance to not lose by that many. The Bucs did better than that and actually won the game. In recent years, the Bucs when faced with such spreads have pulled off similar upsets.

The Oakland Raiders at HOME lost the first week and were expected to lose again. As the Bucs, the Raiders are a team often faced with long odds. What the numbers couldn't pick up from yesterday's game is that the Ravens stayed out on the west coast after Week 1's game.

Neither of these are factors for the New York Jets. We then have to consider what the New York Jets showed last week on their way to their win, which was mainly propelled by knocking out the Cleveland Browns' starting Quarterback.

For the Colts, they get a pass because the Buffalo Bills put up points and are tough at home.

The numbers are not convincing for either team - Colts to win by 4 and Jets to lose by 6.

So, I go with Colts (Over).  Pick wisely, come back for Thursday's picks and enjoy this playlist.

NFL 2012, Week 2: Hedging the Straight-Line (Projections)

9/23/2012		Hedging the Straight-Line
WEEK 2		NFL 2012 Season
		by Guichard Cadet
Home		Away	Hedging		Straight Line	Projected Total Score
Green Bay Packers		Chicago Bears	4.22		-1.28	39.0
Buffalo Bills		Kansas City Chiefs	-1.40		-1.50	53.0
Carolina Panthers		New Orleans Saints	1.89		9.78	44.0
Cincinnati Bengals		Cleveland Browns	5.79		0.65	52.0
Indianapolis Colts		Minnesota Vikings	11.20		5.91	48.0
Jacksonville Jaguars		Houston Texans	11.87		7.93	46.0
Miami Dolphins		Oakland Raiders	4.91		3.81	46.0
New England Patriots		Arizona Cardinals	-8.92		-6.58	42.0
New York Giants		Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-0.50		-4.58	51.0
Philadelphia Eagles		Baltimore Ravens	6.19		8.31	54.0
St. Louis Rams		Washington Redskins	4.97		8.28	53.0
Seattle Seahawks		Dallas Cowboys	1.88		3.90	39.0
Pittsburgh Steelers		New York Jets	10.02		10.38	45.0
San Diego Chargers		Tennessee Titans	-11.08		-2.73	48.0
San Francisco 49ers		Detroit Lions	8.06		3.40	44.0
Atlanta Falcons		Denver Broncos	-3.83		-1.27	41.0

Week 5, 2011: Jets vs Patriots by EvenMoney

New York Jets @ New England Patriots is a marquee game for two reasons: the other match-ups are bleh; and the rivalry has been balanced a bit in recent games. This game has much more consequence for the Jets; they lose and they can essentially kiss their playoffs hopes BYE BYE!

If the New York Jets lose this game, the best they can do the rest of the season is 6-5. If they win, even if they go 6-5, they would still be at 9-7 by season’s end. But beating the New England Patriots would build confidence which might push them to 7 or 8 more wins; thereby inking them to a 10 or 11-win season and the playoffs.

To even entertain this scenario, the Jets have to stop being overconfident, something that has filtered from Head Coach Rex Ryan. He’s gotten the credit when things went well, so he must get the blame when things stink! Simply put, Rex Ryan is doing a HORRIBLE JOB! He is stuck on one speed. That has always been the case with his defense and we saw opponents solve it last year by conceding that they will face 3^rd and Long, and in which case the Jets would blitz. First Down!!

Courtesy of lightyoshi

Coming off last year’s good playoff showing, the Jets are convinced that QuarterBack Mark Sanchez had taken that proverbially leap. So, the Jets offense has taken more risks this season – many of them unnecessary, particularly with Center Nick Mangold injured. Mangold is expected to play but that still does not mean the Jets will not be a pass-happy offense.

HIGHLIGHTS – New York Jets vs. Baltimore RavensWeek 4, 2011

Contrast their per-game averages this season to last year. This season the Jets are attempting 36.8 pass attempts to 23 rushes, while last year for the entire season they averaged 32.8 pass attempts to 33 rushes. Some of this lies on the fact they’ve often trailed in games.

On the defensive side, the Jets defense (ranked #8) has played fairly well but their rush defense has yielded 130 yards per game (YPG) and 6 TDs (ranked #27).  This does not bode well for them because the Patriots are ranked #1 on offense, #1 in passing and #9 in rushing. So, we can conclude that the Jets are not going to win the game on defense, since the Patriots score 33.75 PPG to the Jets’ 25.0 PPG.

HIGHLIGHTS – New England Patriots vs. OaklandRaiders Week 4, 2011

So, how can the Jets win? Both teams give up about 24 PPG, and the only way the Jets can keep the Patriots from scoring is by keeping them off the field. To do this, the Jets have to run the ball effectively, something they haven’t been able to do this season.

NFL PICKS Week 5

Jets (+7.5) Over (50) – The Patriots are the NFL’s worst defense, including on passing. Even if they win the game, they will give up 25 points to the Jets, which puts them at risk for a loss, at least not covering the spread.

10/9 4:15 ET At New England -7.5 NY Jets 50

http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_lines.shtml @10/08/11 @ 11:20pm

Colts Defeat Jets vs Colts in AFC championship game 2010; Head to Super Bowl XLIV

Jets vs Colts - AFC Championship game 2010 result: 30-17. The Indianapolis Colts defeated the New York Jets by displaying the offensive firepower they are known for. Trailing at the half (17-13), the Colts scored 17 points in the second half as Quarterback Peyton Manning threw 3 Touchdowns for the game – one to Pierre Garcon. The Colts advance to Super Bowl XLIV (44) in Miami. FL where they are the early favorites at -2.5 points.
The turning points were the injury to Jets Corner Back Donald Strickland, 2 passes to Austin Collie (one for a touchdown), and an early second half injury to Jets Running Back Shonn Greene.

FULL ARTICLE

Even Money’s Picks: Saints vs Vikings NFC championship game 2010

Saints vs Vikings is the highly anticipated NFC Championship game that features two high-powered offenses that scored 24+ points in all their wins. The Minnesota Vikings lost only 1 game where they scored that much and all 3 games they did not. The New Orleans Saints lost their last 3 games of the season and they scored less than 24 points in each of them.

With each offense featuring a Pro-Bowl Quarterback in Brett Favre and Drew Brees, the game will come down to which defense makes the early stop.

FULL ARTICLE

Even Money’s Picks: Jets vs Colts AFC championship game 2010

Jets vs Colts in the AFC Championship game? What were those odds when the season started? For the New York Jets to beat the Indianapolis Colts, they need to look at the film of 3 games. The New York Jets defense is comparable to the Jacksonville Jaguars, San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens; and to a certain degree, they share offensive philosophies, especially with the Ravens.

Though the Jets have to play a conservative offensive game, the Indianapolis Colts failed to score 27+ points in only 4 games this season.

FULL ARTICLE

Will Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts Cakewalk In NFL Playoffs 2010?

Jets vs Colts should not be close though many pundits are giving the New York Jets a chance to win this NFL Playoffs 2010 matchup. Do they not realize that the pressure they claim Peyton Manning is par for the course? The Indianapolis Colts have been a dominant franchise since Tony Dungy arrived.

The Colts won 10 games that first season (2002) and have won 12 games for 7 straight years – doing it this year with a new coach.

FULL ARTICLE

Will New York Jets Fly Over Colts In NFL Playoffs 2010?

Jets vs Colts shows no matter how much people claim that defense wins championships that deep down they “dig the long ball”. For the New York Jets to win the AFC Championship and beat the Indianapolis Colts in this NFL Playoffs 2010 matchup, they’re going to need Quarterback Mark Sanchez to go deep at least once - then they will make it to Super Bowl XLIV.

The New York Jets are not an enigma. They do not try to trick teams. They prefer to run the ball and have their defense control field position.

FULL ARTICLE

Jets vs Chargers – Even Money’s NFL PLAYOFFS 2010 PICKS

Jets vs Chargers on paper is the most lopsided matchup of this weekend’s NFL Playoffs Divisional Round games. The winner faces the Indianapolis Colts. The betting line has the New York Jets as a +8 underdog to the San Diego Chargers which is comparable to 2 of the other matchups. But, very few people think the Jets can pull out an outright win.

The New York Jets are not your cuddly, underdog Cinderella story. They are a team led by a boastful coach (Rex Ryan) who has handed his team its Super Bowl itinerary including the parade date.

FULL ARTICLE

Ravens vs Colts – Even Money’s NFL PLAYOFFS PICKS

Ravens vs Colts is the primetime matchup on Saturday for the NFL Playoffs Divisional Round between two teams whose identities reside on different ends of the NFL spectrum. The Indianapolis Colts are an offensive force with a steady defense, while the Baltimore Ravens dominate on defense and ask the offense not to lose the game.

The Ravens have shown that they can disrupt any offense, including the Colts who they lost to in NFL Week 10 – final score: 17-15.

FULL ARTICLE

Packers vs Cardinals – Even Money’s NFL PLAYOFFS PICKS

Packers vs Cardinals meet on Sunday in a NFC NFL Playoffs Wild Card game and is one of 3 matchups that feature teams who faced each other in NFL Week 17. For various reasons, the Green Bay Packers and Arizona Cardinals game is not the one you want to put your money on.

The Arizona Cardinals have Quarterback Kurt Warner and that along with his receivers are reasons enough to fear.

FULL ARTICLE

Ravens vs Patriots – Even Money’s NFL PLAYOFFS PICKS

Ravens vs Patriots meet on Sunday in an AFC NFL Playoffs Wild Card game that is a repeat of a battle they staged in NFL Week 4. In a normal year, neither of the teams with a bye would want to face the New England Patriots. But with a slew of reported injuries for Patriots players, the Ravens have a good chance of pulling an upset.

The Baltimore Ravens is still built on defense and the emergence of Ray Rice has allowed them to control the pace of games.

FULL ARTICLE

Even Money’s NFL PICKS Playoffs Wildcard – Jets vs. Bengals

Jets vs. Bengals is the opening NFL Wild Card Game – Saturday afternoon. This game is one of 3 matchups that feature teams who faced each other in NFL Week 17. As with the other 2 outcomes, the winning team (New York Jets) routed its opponent (Cincinnati Bengals). Will this Jets vs. Bengals battle have a similar result of 37-0?

FULL ARTICLE