NFL 2016 Week 17 RESULTS - Hedging the Straight Line

Week 17 -- Closing the Doors

1)  New York Giants –  won 4 slots in a game that mattered more to their opponent.

NFL 2016 Week 12 RESULTS - Hedging the Straight Line

Week 12 -- features three teams fighting for their division and two more clinging to playoff hopes.

1)  New York Giants –  on a 6 game winning streak, still have chance to win NFC East, and won 4 slots including the Under.

2)  Buffalo Bills – not projected to cover the Spread but nearly did and won 4 slots including the OVER.

NFL 2015 Week 13 - EvenMoney's Game of the Week (Jets vs Giants)

"[D]uck what you heard - who's the best in New York,

Fulfilling fantasies without that [fairy] Mr. Roarke?"

With so many quality matchups this Sunday, the early marketing value is on this clash between the two New York metropolitan area teams, where a loss by either dooms a chance at the playoffs.

For the Giants, the reality is that they must win, at least, 4 out of their last 5 games to finish 9-7 for the season. This is only the starting point because they also need the Washington Redskins to finish no better than 9-7.

For the Jets, they too must finish no less than 9-7 but realistically they too must win 4 out of their last 5 games. A 10-6 record will likely get them into the AFC's tie-breaking discussion.

The mathematical possibilities for both teams are too many to ponder, so the best bet is to focus on this game. 

Historically, the New York Giants are the best NFL team in New York. At the same time, fan adulation is not as lopsided as in Major League Baseball where the New York Yankees dominate the landscape when contrasted to the New York Mets.

For this year, at this moment: Who's the best in New York? The Jets have a better record by one game, but is that enough? The Giants can win their division and make the playoffs with an equal or worse record. The Jets cannot.

Their offensive output is nearly identical with the slight edge going to the Giants mainly because of Points Scored, while the Jets have the superior running game.

Defensively, the two teams are polar opposites. The Jets are very conventional, besting the Giants on points and yardage given and Sacks. The Giants are way better on Interceptions and Fumbles.

The better quarterback conversation is a landslide for the Giants' Eli Manning in all passing categories, while the Jets' Ryan Fitzpatrick can make more happen with his legs and enjoys better pass protection.

Though the Jets have a better starting Receiver tandem in Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker, in this game against secondaries that have struggled, Manning has a better corps of receivers to target, particularly Odell Beckham, Jr.

On the offensive side, the game comes down to the Jets' Chris Ivory, the current best running back in New York. The key reasons are:

• not falling behind early -- only 1 win when trailing at halftime
• 0-3 when Fitzpatrick throws 2 or more Interceptions
• 1-5 when opponent scores 22+ points

Basically, the Jets need Chris Ivory involved throughout for offensive balance in their play calling and to keep their defense off the field because the Giants:

• have scored 24 points in 8 of their 11 games
• 1-5 when opponent scores 24+ points
• 4-1 when opponent scores less than 22 points

With the game being NY Jets At NY Giants (+2.5; 46.5),  the numbers favor the Giants (.842) to win by 2 points simply because the Giants have not had problems scoring.

So, I take the Giants (UNDER) but with Ivory having a big game and helping Jets to a narrow victory. Pick wisely, come back for Monday's pick and until then who do you think is the best in New York?

NFL 2015 Week 10 - EvenMoney's Game of the Week (Patriots vs Giants)

New England At NY Giants (+7; 54.5) provides one of two remaining chances for the Patriots not to have an undefeated season. To beat the New England Patriots, a team needs a veteran quarterback who can challenge them. The next time for this to occur will be against the Denver Broncos in Week 12.

There were two previous weeks (1 and 6) when the Patriots faced teams with quarterbacks that posed such a threat. Since then, the Patriots have been able to bomb away and run through teams, knowing no matter the points they give up on defense, their offense will have a chance to surpass it.

The New York Giants have a veteran, championship level quarterback in Eli Manning, who is Top 5 to Top 10 in Completions, Attempts, Comp. Percentage, and Passing TouchDowns. Contrast this with the Giants being 24th in the league in Rushing at under 100 Yards per game and ZERO TouchDowns.



For the Giants to be competitive, Eli needs major help from the defense. Though much maligned for lapses of bad play and giving up 25.1 points per game, the Giants defense is Top 3 in Interceptions and Forced Fumbles.

Still they are ranked last in Sacks and hope the return of Jean Pierre-Paul provides immediate help. New York will need an effective pass rush to control Tom Brady and a Patriots offense that has scored 27+ points each game, averaging 34.5ppg and besting opponents by 16.63ppg.

Before taking that to the bank, do note that the large margins of victory has come against 4 teams with a combined record of 10-22. In the other 4 games, New England won by an average of 7.25 points.

That is not to say that Tom Brady is not having a superb season where he is Top 5 to Top 10 in 8 leading categories.

The question is simple: can the Giants defense hold the Patriots to 27 points or under? If so, then the Giants have won 4 out of 5 of games when their defense holds up.

So, I take the Giants (UNDER). Pick wisely, come back for Monday's pick and until then watch two Super Bowl winning teams and quarterbacks give you a glimpse of the near future.

NFL 2015 Week 8 - EvenMoney's Game of the Week (Giants vs Saints)

After their 0-3 start, the Saints have been rising to the top, winning three of their last four games. A win today and the New Orleans Saints are in the race for a Wild Card playoff spot.

The Saints will need help from other teams, mainly the Chicago Bears beating the Minnesota Vikings. After today's game, New Orleans finish the year with a soft schedule where they can go 6-2.

Today's game: New York at New Orleans (-3; 50) is a must-win for any of this to matter. For the Saints, it is hard to pinpoint what has led to the recent wins. In the past four games, they have scored 5 more points while giving up 3 less points. Yet, no one area of the game jump out as the catalyst for this turnaround.

Chances are it is momentum gained from their win against the Atlanta Falcons; the inverse of how they started the season.



The New York Giants have not gotten traction this season. Plagued with injuries at the Wide Receiver position and no consistent running game, Quarterback Eli Manning is being asked to do more.

Manning has been steady but the Giants go as their defense does -- giving up 22 points per game. A team that scores 24 or more points has a 75% chance to beat the Giants.

Today's question: Can the New Orleans Saints muster enough offense to beat the New York Giants?

The Saints have scored 26 or more in their 3 wins, and average 19 in their 4 losses.

This is a toss-up for the win with Saints getting the slight nod. For our purposes, the numbers break to Giants (.895) to win by 2 points and Saints (.105) to lose by 2 points.

So, I take the Giants (UNDER). Pick wisely, come back for Monday's pick and continue rising to the top.

NFL 2015 Week 4 - EvenMoney's Game of the Week (Giants vs Bills)

NY Giants at Buffalo  (-6; 46) means more to the Buffalo Bills season, simply because the Bills have to keep pace with the New England Patriots.

The Patriots have won the AFC East 11 out of the past 12 seasons. The lone season - 2008 - they did not win it was due to a tie-breaker.

The goal is not so much that the Bills have to win the division, but that they have to win 11 games in order to be in competition for a Wild Card spot in the conference.

On the other hand, the Giants' NFC East division will likely take 10 wins to win and all the teams are and will continue to be bunched up throughout the season.

A win for the Giants will place them at 2-2 and a possible three-way tie for first place. A loss will, at most, put them 2 games behind the division leader, only if the Dallas Cowboys win today.

Playoff picture notwithstanding, this is a fantastic offensive matchup. At the end of the day, either or both teams would have answered whether it's for real. Do opponents have to worry about 24 points each time they face them?

The Buffalo Bills have scored 27 or more points all 3 games this season, including in the loss to the Patriots. In that game, they trailed by 24 points and scored 19 of their 32 points in the fourth quarter.

In the other two games, the Bills have scored, at least, 24 points in the first three quarters. This is the challenge for the New York Giants who have scored 20 or less in the first three quarters in their 3 games.

With the Giants defense giving up 24 points a game and to lesser offenses, I take the Bills (Over 46).

Pick wisely, come back for Thursday's pick and Enjoy this playlist/mix.

NFL 2012, Week 1: Hedging the Straight-Line (Projections)

9/22/2012		Hedging the Straight-Line (Projections)
WEEK 1		NFL 2012 Season
		by Guichard Cadet
Home		Away	Hedging		Straight Line	Projected Total Score
New York Giants		Dallas Cowboys	-3.96		-3.26	49.0
Chicago Bears		Indianapolis Colts	-6.52		-4.37	38.0
Cleveland Browns		Philadelphia Eagles	14.44		7.47	41.0
New York Jets		Buffalo Bills	-2.31		-2.39	41.0
New Orleans Saints		Washington Redskins	-16.22		-9.26	54.0
Tennessee Titans		New England Patriots	11.27		5.99	53.0
Minnesota Vikings		Jacksonville Jaguars	-9.05		-5.78	36.0
Houston Texans		Miami Dolphins	-8.76		-5.59	43.0
Detroit Lions		St. Louis Rams	-19.92		-11.04	42.0
Kansas City Chiefs		Atlanta Falcons	15.28		7.96	35.0
Green Bay Packers		San Francisco 49ers	-11.64		-7.20	61.0
Tampa Bay Buccaneers		Carolina Panthers	10.19		5.36	41.0
Arizona Cardinals		Seattle Seahawks	6.89		3.83	42.0
Denver Broncos		Pittsburgh Steelers	3.63		2.15	42.0
Baltimore Ravens		Cincinnati Bengals	-4.98		-3.77	46.0
Oakland Raiders		San Diego Chargers	4.30		2.52	46.0

Week 3, 2011: Eagles vs Giants by EvenMoney

Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants will go a long way in determining how strong the NFC East will be this season, and whether all four teams can battle for a playoff spot up until December. This game means much more to the Giants than it does the Eagles because the Eagles are viewed as a lock to win the division unless QuarterBack Michael Vick gets injured.

Video Courtesy of AbSoLuTeNiNja21

Vick did get injured, this past week, and is the key reason why the Eagles are not 2-0. Though Vick fumbled twice and threw an interception, he had the Eagles heading to a 1o-point lead against the Falcons, before he suffered a concussion and left the game.

Up until then, he powered a balanced Eagles’ offense, in which he had thrown his 4^th TouchDown of the season.

HIGHLIGHTS – Eagles vs. Falcons Week 2, 2011

The Eagles are 19^th in total Passing (250.5), 2^nd in total Rushing (184.5 yards), and 6^th in overall Offense.

They bring this against a Giants team that is ranked 19^th in overall defense, but 3^rd against the Rush, limiting opponents to 66.5 yards per game. Where the Giants defense falters is in their inability to get off the field – 15 Passing First Downs per opponent.

HIGHLIGHTS - Giants vs. Rams Week 2, 2011

To beat the Eagles, the New York Giants need a big game from Eli Manning. On the surface since the Eagles ranked 30^th in Rush Defense, it seems to be the logical point of attack. Rushing leads their opponents to eating the clock while not producing much in terms of scoring. And, when a team has to pass, their goal is for short yardage to gain a First Down, especially since the Eagles boast a formidable secondary: Asante Samuel and Nnamdi Asomugha.

When coupled with a defensive line featuring Jason Babin  and Cullen Jenkins, they go on to form the NFL’s 5^th ranked Passing defense, with 9 total Sacks and giving up only 180.5 yards per game.

NFL PICKS Week 3

Eagles (-8.5) Under (48) – Eli is under 60% passing, under 250 yards per game, at a 1:1 TD/Interception ratio.

9/25 1:00 ET At Philadelphia -8.5 NY Giants 48

http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_lines.shtml @09/24/11 @ 4:40pm

Even Money's NFL Playoffs Scenarios 2010, NFL Power Rankings

The NFL Playoffs Picture is clear on one side and muddy on the other. For the NFC playoffs, three teams are vying for 2 Wild Card seeds: Green Bay Packers, Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants. While the AFC playoffs have 8 teams that are still mathematically capable of getting the 2 Wild Card Seeds. The Power Rankings below gives you a snapshot of who we think clear the hurdle, not based on tiebreaker. Eliminated teams are ranked below "Next Year".

FULL ARTICLE

Even Money’s Week 15 Monday Night Football; NFL Playoffs Update

Giants vs. Redskins is tonight’s match-up for NFL Picks Week 15 Monday Night Football and will give a clearer NFL Playoffs update for the NFC. The New York Giants’ playoffs hope hangs in the balance tonight as they travel to face the Washington Redskins. The NFC playoffs picture got clearer in recent days as the Dallas Cowboys beat the New Orleans Saints on Saturday, and then the Carolina Panthers defeated the Minnesota Vikings last night.

These two outcomes clinched a playoff spot for the Philadelphia Eagles and give the Eagles an outside chance of a bye week.

FULL ARTICLE

Cowboys Losing In December Boosts Packers vs. Ravens on Monday Night Football – NFL Picks

The Dallas Cowboys losing in December has become part of the landscape, no matter how much team owner Jerry Jones wants to downplay it. Sunday’s loss to the Giants furthers the importance of tonight’s Packers vs. Ravens match-up on Monday Night Football.

Before Sunday’s Cowboys’ loss, the common stance was that of a physical game in wintry Wisconsin. The Packers can now aim for a first round bye if they win at least 4 of their next 5 games. They have reason to be optimistic based on the following chart which shows how the Dallas Cowboys fare in December games.

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Even Money’s NFL PICKS Week 13– Cowboys, Giants: Standing Tall or Coming Up Short?

Cowboys vs. Giants is one of my marquee match-ups for NFL Picks Week 13. The playoff implications are clear for Dallas and New York. Dallas still has an outside shot of a bye but at worse can host a home playoff game by winning 4 of the next 5 games. For New York, winning 4 of the next 5 games give them a mathematical chance at a playoff Wild Card seeding.

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