NFL Super Bowl LI (51) Season NFL 2016 RESULTS - Hedging the Straight Line

Atlanta Falcons vs New England Patriots

NFL 2016 Conference Championships RESULTS - Hedging the Straight Line

Green Bay Packers vs Atlanta Falcons

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots

NFL 2016 Divisional Playoffs RESULTS - Hedging the Straight Line

Seattle Seahawks vs Atlanta Falcons

Houston Texans vs New England Patriots

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Kansas City Chiefs

Green Bay Packers vs Dallas Cowboys

NFL 2016 Week 16 RESULTS - Hedging the Straight Line

Week 16 -- Unpredictable Outcomes at the Stretch

1)  Miami Dolphins –  won 4 slots in a Projected toss-up while clinching a playoff spot.

2)  Washington Redskins – won 4 slots and with a win in Week 17 they make the playoffs.

3)  Atlanta Falcons – won 4 slots in a dominating performance and clinched the NFC South division.

NFL 2016 Week 15 RESULTS - Hedging the Straight Line

Week 15 -- Battle for divisions and precarious playoff positions.

1)  Indianapolis Colts –  won 5 slots, kept their division title hopes in play and pretty much knocked the Minnesota Vikings out of playoffs consideration.

2)  New England Patriots – won 4 slots, clinched AFC East and put a hurt on the Denver Broncos' playoff hopes.

NFL 2016 Week 13 RESULTS - Hedging the Straight Line

Week 13 -- Favorites dominated for the most part.
1)  Cincinnati Bengals –  won 4 slots and essentially knocked the Philadelphia Eagles out of playoffs consideration.

2)  Denver Broncos – won 3 slots and covered the Spread though not projected to do so.

NFL 2016 Week 8 RESULTS- Hedging the Straight Line

Week 8 was one with inconsistent results and forces us to look at the division leaders.

1)  New England Patriots – continues to cover and has a 3 game lead in AFC East.

2)  Pittsburgh Steelers – Bye Week, lost previous two games and won the two before (big).

3)  Houston Texans – covered and is 2-2 in past 4 games. Covers when Favorite, and doesn't beat spread when the Underdog.

NFL 2016 Week 5 RESULTS- Hedging the Straight Line

This Week’s Steady Performers:

1)  Buffalo Bills – won 5 out of 5 slots

2)  Arizona Cardinals – won 5 out of 5 slots

3)  New England Patriots – won the two projected and the O/U

4)  Green Bay Packers – won 5 out of 5 slots

NFL 2015 AFC Divisional Round (Chiefs vs Patriots)

Kansas City At New England (-5; 43.5) is an intriguing matchup because the Kansas City Chiefs have won 11 games in a row. Not only are the Chiefs getting the customary hedge of roughly 3 points for being the Away Underdog, they're getting an extra 2 points. These factors alone make this an easy ATS (against the spread) pick. Or, does it?

The New England Patriots have not looked dominant since Week 10, a last second win over the New York Giants. Their record since then is 3 Wins, 4 Losses. Of these losses, the one in Week 13 against the Philadelphia Eagles standout the most. Faced with various injuries, the outlook going into the game was the Patriots could beat the Eagles even when not at full-strength.

After leading early by 14 points, the Patriots faced a 21-point deficit in the fourth quarter. Though they mounted a comeback, it fell short. Since that time, it seems as if the Patriots packed it in for the season, in order to take care of injuries and dare I say to position themselves not to play one specific team (Pittsburgh Steelers) in this round of the playoffs.

I do not put much stock in the Patriots' last two losses of the season. At this point, five of the AFC six playoffs spots had been determined. The Patriots controlled their own destiny and they basically chose the second seed.

Injuries will be a big part of the story, mainly Rob Gronkowski (Patriots) and Jeremy Maclin (Chiefs). Both are listed as Questionable, with Gronkowski more likely to play. Without him, the Patriots offense is not as explosive and consistent. Without Maclin, the Chiefs do not have a passing game.

Already ranked near last this season in passing yards, this will put more pressure on the defense. The Chiefs defense has held the last 12 of 13 opponents to under 21 points. This sets up a great battle between one of the NFL's top secondaries and pass rushing defenses, and Tom Brady.

Brady led the NFL in Pass Attempts, Passing Yards and Passing TDs. He was pretty much New England's entire offense. The Patriots were ranked 30th in Rushing Yards and 5th in Passing Yards. Brady threw 2 or more TDs in 13 out of 16 games, so one can basically start the Patriots off with 14 to 21 points on the board.

The Patriots scored, at least, 20 points in 15 of their first 16 games this season. So, can the Chiefs score 21 or more points to edge out a victory? The Chiefs scored 21 points or more in 12 games this season.

With New England giving 5 points, the numbers favor the Chiefs (.789) because the Chiefs scored 17 or more points in all but two games this season.

So, I take the Chiefs (OVER), seeing this as well-balanced game on both sides of the ball, with the victor making the least costly turnover. Pick wisely, and check out the pick for the other playoff games.

NFL 2015 Week 16 - EvenMoney's Game of the Week (Patriots vs Jets)

New England At NY Jets (-3; 45) has strong playoff implications for both teams. A win for the New England Patriots mean they clinch home field throughout the playoffs. A New York Jets loss does not eliminate them from the playoffs.

This matchup is a chance at redemption for a Jets team that took a lead into the fourth quarter when these two teams met in Week 7. New York led until halfway through the fourth quarter, and then the defense showed the gaps and tendencies that would be exposed in three of the next four games.

Sitting at 5-5, with 4 losses in the AFC division, the Jets have turned their season around. Winners of their last 4 games, the Jets have found a great balance on both sides of the ball. During this stretch, the Jets have averaged 27.5 points, while giving up 16 points.

Though the level of competition was not near what they will face today against the Patriots, the same could be said of the three losses the Jets had after losing to the Patriots.

After beating the Jets in Week 7, the Patriots went on to win 4 straight games. Just as they looked to be streaking toward another undefeated season, the Patriots lost two games in a row. They have since won two straight games but the spectre of dominance is not the same.

The Patriots have battled injuries to key players and are likely resting some to avoid injuries this late in the season. Even with these injuries, the Patriots are still good for their season low mark of 20 points.

The question for this game lies on the Patriots defense, which is giving up less than 20 points over the entire season. This average is a hard split where 7 games fall above that scoring mark, and 7 do not. This says more about level of competition than it does about the Patriots defense's consistency. 

The New York Jets have scored 20+ points in 10 of their 14 games - 8 Wins, 2 Losses. Their defense has held opponents to 20 points or less in 8 games -- all wins.

With the points, this game is a toss-up, a push, where the even money goes to the home team, the Jets  (.526).

So, I take the Jets (UNDER), either looking at a defensive battle or blowout. Pick wisely, come back for Monday's pick and until then watch to see who's the winner.

To Be The Man... - NFL 2015 MNF 11

Last Sunday, teams and fans around the country saw the New England Patriots pull out a last minute victory over the New York Giants. With each victory many fear the prospect of another undefeated regular season for the Patriots.

Though realistically the next true and last chance to spoil this outcome lies in next week's matchup against the Denver Broncos, the Buffalo Bills do pose some challenges for the New England Patriots.

One is familiarity, which can also work in the Patriots' favor. Second is Patriots looking ahead to next week. Third is Ric Flair's adage: To be the man, you gotta beat the man.

This is not just on Tyrod Taylor. It's not even on just Rex Ryan, though he had six seasons as the head coach of the New York Jets to unseat the Patriots.

This, this leviathan is on the Buffalo Bills and the other AFC East team who are just content to pray and pray for the Patriots' downfall. Are these three teams simply going to wait until Tom Brady retires?

Even after Brady retires, do they think Bill Belichick is not already preparing a new strategy or scouting for a comparable quarterback?

So, tonight's Monday Night Football game is Buffalo At New England (-7; 47.5). Whereas I called the upset special for the Houston Texans to beat the Cincinnati Bengals, I am not giving the Bills the same leeway.

The Buffalo Bills have to prove their real defense is the one that has kept 5 teams under 20 points five times this season.

This game is of utmost importance to Buffalo. A loss tonight and the AFC will have 8 teams vying for the final 2 playoff spots, with 5 of them holding a 5-5 record, the same one the Bills will have with a loss.

The New England Patriots have scored 27+ points in all 9 games. The Bills defense has only allowed that many points in 3 games, including the Week 2 matchup when the Patriots put 40 on them and won by 8 points.

The question is whether the Bills offense can put up 27+ points against the Patriots defense? The Bills scored 32 points in their previous matchup -- 19 points came in the fourth quarter, after they were down by 14 points.

The numbers break as Patriots (.842) to win by 14 points and Bills (.158) to win by 1 point.

So, I take Patriots (UNDER).  Pick wisely and come back for Thursday's picks. Tonight we find out whether the Bills are ready to dethrone the Patriots.

NFL 2015 Week 10 - EvenMoney's Game of the Week (Patriots vs Giants)

New England At NY Giants (+7; 54.5) provides one of two remaining chances for the Patriots not to have an undefeated season. To beat the New England Patriots, a team needs a veteran quarterback who can challenge them. The next time for this to occur will be against the Denver Broncos in Week 12.

There were two previous weeks (1 and 6) when the Patriots faced teams with quarterbacks that posed such a threat. Since then, the Patriots have been able to bomb away and run through teams, knowing no matter the points they give up on defense, their offense will have a chance to surpass it.

The New York Giants have a veteran, championship level quarterback in Eli Manning, who is Top 5 to Top 10 in Completions, Attempts, Comp. Percentage, and Passing TouchDowns. Contrast this with the Giants being 24th in the league in Rushing at under 100 Yards per game and ZERO TouchDowns.



For the Giants to be competitive, Eli needs major help from the defense. Though much maligned for lapses of bad play and giving up 25.1 points per game, the Giants defense is Top 3 in Interceptions and Forced Fumbles.

Still they are ranked last in Sacks and hope the return of Jean Pierre-Paul provides immediate help. New York will need an effective pass rush to control Tom Brady and a Patriots offense that has scored 27+ points each game, averaging 34.5ppg and besting opponents by 16.63ppg.

Before taking that to the bank, do note that the large margins of victory has come against 4 teams with a combined record of 10-22. In the other 4 games, New England won by an average of 7.25 points.

That is not to say that Tom Brady is not having a superb season where he is Top 5 to Top 10 in 8 leading categories.

The question is simple: can the Giants defense hold the Patriots to 27 points or under? If so, then the Giants have won 4 out of 5 of games when their defense holds up.

So, I take the Giants (UNDER). Pick wisely, come back for Monday's pick and until then watch two Super Bowl winning teams and quarterbacks give you a glimpse of the near future.

Patriots Walk A Thin Line - NFL 2015 TNF 8

Miami at New England (-8; 51) is a tricky game to pick. The Patriots have won 3 games by 7 points, 1 game by 8 and two others by over 24 points.

Coupled with that, when the Dolphins lose, they do so by 14 points. Since firing their head coach before their Bye week, the Dolphins have won both their games.

Though these wins come against AFC South teams with losing records, the Dolphins scored 38 and 44 points, eclipsing their previous season-high by 18 points.

Going with the theory that the Dolphins have turned the corner, the Patriots only give up 21 points per game, while scoring  a league-leading 35.5 points per game.



The question for tonight's matchup: can New England score over 30 points against a Miami defense that gives up 23 points per game?

I pick Patriots (Over) because the game is at Gillette Stadium and the past two seasons, the HOME team has won with the Patriots winning by 10 or more.

Pick wisely, come back for Sunday's picks and enjoy the message in the song.

Patriots: "It Wasn't Me..." NFL 2015 TNF 1

The revival! It has been a long time since I crunched the numbers here or at Gather. What better time to start as we head into a new NFL season and a game where the recent Super Bowl Champions, New England Patriots are giving 7 points to the always battle-ready Pittsburgh Steelers.

This is a tough game to pick mainly because the Steelers don't care about the spread, your office pool or your couch. They're either going to win or lose badly; for them that mean is by at least 7.

I have the numbers as Patriots (-8.96) and Steelers (-3.24). Though there's a wide gap between these two things happening, this is a game that will be played on the margins. Will all the controversy surrounding the Patriots make them tentatve, will they come out to prove a point and put up 30+ points or will they be on the edge, rusty and primed for an upset by the Steelers -- something along the lines of giving up 27 points and losing by 3?

Lastly, consider that out of the 5 recent season openers, the HOME team has lost on1y 1 time and covered the other 4 times. Three of those winners were the defending Super Bowl Champions, with the Baltimore Ravens losing on the road.

Pick wisely, come back for Sunday's picks and Enjoy this playlist.

NFL 2012, Week 3: Hedging the Straight-Line (Projections)

9/23/2012		Hedging the Straight-Line
WEEK 3		NFL 2012 Season
		by Guichard Cadet
Home		Away	Hedging		Straight Line	Projected Total Score
Carolina Panthers		New York Giants	2.05		8.77	46.0
Chicago Bears		St. Louis Rams	-9.80		-5.02	59.0
Cleveland Browns		Buffalo Bills	-5.61		0.67	59.0
Indianapolis Colts		Jacksonville Jaguars	5.70		0.96	64.0
Dallas Cowboys		Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4.07		10.54	66.0
Miami Dolphins		New York Jets	12.99		9.08	50.0
Minnesota Vikings		San Francisco 49ers	2.91		-0.56	50.0
New Orleans Saints		Kansas City Chiefs	-7.03		-10.33	47.0
Tennessee Titans		Detroit Lions	9.91		1.10	50.0
Washington Redskins		Cincinnati Bengals	-10.74		0.35	66.0
Arizona Cardinals		Philadelphia Eagles	-4.55		-5.94	47.0
San Diego Chargers		Atlanta Falcons	4.41		7.62	44.0
Denver Broncos		Houston Texans	4.34		-3.63	36.0
Oakland Raiders		Pittsburgh Steelers	1.61		0.60	47.0
Baltimore Ravens		New England Patriots	-6.84		-9.69	57.0
Seattle Seahawks		Green Bay Packers	0.70		6.54	47.0

Week 5, 2011: Jets vs Patriots by EvenMoney

New York Jets @ New England Patriots is a marquee game for two reasons: the other match-ups are bleh; and the rivalry has been balanced a bit in recent games. This game has much more consequence for the Jets; they lose and they can essentially kiss their playoffs hopes BYE BYE!

If the New York Jets lose this game, the best they can do the rest of the season is 6-5. If they win, even if they go 6-5, they would still be at 9-7 by season’s end. But beating the New England Patriots would build confidence which might push them to 7 or 8 more wins; thereby inking them to a 10 or 11-win season and the playoffs.

To even entertain this scenario, the Jets have to stop being overconfident, something that has filtered from Head Coach Rex Ryan. He’s gotten the credit when things went well, so he must get the blame when things stink! Simply put, Rex Ryan is doing a HORRIBLE JOB! He is stuck on one speed. That has always been the case with his defense and we saw opponents solve it last year by conceding that they will face 3^rd and Long, and in which case the Jets would blitz. First Down!!

Courtesy of lightyoshi

Coming off last year’s good playoff showing, the Jets are convinced that QuarterBack Mark Sanchez had taken that proverbially leap. So, the Jets offense has taken more risks this season – many of them unnecessary, particularly with Center Nick Mangold injured. Mangold is expected to play but that still does not mean the Jets will not be a pass-happy offense.

HIGHLIGHTS – New York Jets vs. Baltimore RavensWeek 4, 2011

Contrast their per-game averages this season to last year. This season the Jets are attempting 36.8 pass attempts to 23 rushes, while last year for the entire season they averaged 32.8 pass attempts to 33 rushes. Some of this lies on the fact they’ve often trailed in games.

On the defensive side, the Jets defense (ranked #8) has played fairly well but their rush defense has yielded 130 yards per game (YPG) and 6 TDs (ranked #27).  This does not bode well for them because the Patriots are ranked #1 on offense, #1 in passing and #9 in rushing. So, we can conclude that the Jets are not going to win the game on defense, since the Patriots score 33.75 PPG to the Jets’ 25.0 PPG.

HIGHLIGHTS – New England Patriots vs. OaklandRaiders Week 4, 2011

So, how can the Jets win? Both teams give up about 24 PPG, and the only way the Jets can keep the Patriots from scoring is by keeping them off the field. To do this, the Jets have to run the ball effectively, something they haven’t been able to do this season.

NFL PICKS Week 5

Jets (+7.5) Over (50) – The Patriots are the NFL’s worst defense, including on passing. Even if they win the game, they will give up 25 points to the Jets, which puts them at risk for a loss, at least not covering the spread.

10/9 4:15 ET At New England -7.5 NY Jets 50

http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_lines.shtml @10/08/11 @ 11:20pm

Ravens vs Colts – Even Money’s NFL PLAYOFFS PICKS

Ravens vs Colts is the primetime matchup on Saturday for the NFL Playoffs Divisional Round between two teams whose identities reside on different ends of the NFL spectrum. The Indianapolis Colts are an offensive force with a steady defense, while the Baltimore Ravens dominate on defense and ask the offense not to lose the game.

The Ravens have shown that they can disrupt any offense, including the Colts who they lost to in NFL Week 10 – final score: 17-15.

FULL ARTICLE

Packers vs Cardinals – Even Money’s NFL PLAYOFFS PICKS

Packers vs Cardinals meet on Sunday in a NFC NFL Playoffs Wild Card game and is one of 3 matchups that feature teams who faced each other in NFL Week 17. For various reasons, the Green Bay Packers and Arizona Cardinals game is not the one you want to put your money on.

The Arizona Cardinals have Quarterback Kurt Warner and that along with his receivers are reasons enough to fear.

FULL ARTICLE

Ravens vs Patriots – Even Money’s NFL PLAYOFFS PICKS

Ravens vs Patriots meet on Sunday in an AFC NFL Playoffs Wild Card game that is a repeat of a battle they staged in NFL Week 4. In a normal year, neither of the teams with a bye would want to face the New England Patriots. But with a slew of reported injuries for Patriots players, the Ravens have a good chance of pulling an upset.

The Baltimore Ravens is still built on defense and the emergence of Ray Rice has allowed them to control the pace of games.

FULL ARTICLE