NFL 2016 Week 8 MNF Vikings Bears - Hedging the Straight Line

For tonight's game:

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears--

1) Vikings to win by 7 points -- projected

2) Bears to lose by 8 points -- projected

3) Opening Spread -- Vikings (-5.5 points)

4) Projected O/U 37.45

5) Actual O/U 41.00

NFL 2016 Week 7 MNF Texans Broncos - Hedging the Straight Line

For tonight's game: 

Houston Texans at Denver Broncos--

1) Texans to lose by 3 points -- projected

2) Broncos to win by 5 points -- projected

3) Opening Spread -- Broncos (-7.5 points)

4) Projected O/U 40.25

5) Actual O/U 40.50

NFL 2016 Week 6 MNF Jets Cardinals - Hedging the Straight Line

For tonight's game: 

New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals--

1) Jets to win by 1.38 points -- projected

2) Cardinals to win by 7.17 points -- projected

3) Opening Spread -- Cardinals (-7.5 points)

4) Projected O/U 45.83

5) Actual O/U 46.50

NFL 2016 Week 5 MNF Bucs Panthers - Hedging the Straight Line

For tonight's game: 
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers


1) Bucs to lose by 6.3 points -- projected

2) Panthers to win by 9.1 points -- projected

3) Opening Spread -- Panthers (-6.5 points)

4) Projected O/U 49.93

5) Actual O/U 41.00

NFL 2016 Week 4 - Hedging the Straight Line

For tonight's game: NY Giants at Minnesota Vikings--

1) Giants to lose by 1 point -- projected
2) Vikings to win by 4 points -- projected
3) Opening Spread -- Viking -3.5
4) Projected O/U 45.70
5) Actual O/U 43.00

Bears, Eagles, A Rush On Me - NFL 2016 MNF 2

Brandon Marshall - Denver Broncos

"After losing CenturyLink and Air Academy Credit Union as paid endorsements, entertainment mogul Russell Simmons has reached out to Marshall to get him to endorse “RushCard,” which is a prepaid Visa card."  --Curtis Crabtree

"Yes, they offer some convenience for the 25% of Americans who are unbanked or underbanked. But in exchange, prepaid cards charge exorbitant fees. Why not just educate people on how to bank smart and avoid fees through the use of fee-free FDIC-insured banks and credit unions? They do exist."  --CBS News 2011

Ravens: Masters of Close Finish - NFL 2015 MNF 12

The total absolute point difference for all 10 Baltimore Ravens game is 41, an average of 4.1 points. They have played 5 games in which the margin of victory was 3 points or less. Their biggest loss was by 8 points, on the road to the 9-2 Arizona Cardinals.

At 3-7 Baltimore is all but mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. Heading into tonight's matchup -  Baltimore At Cleveland (-4.5; 41.5) - the Ravens are without starting Quarterback Joe Flacco.

Matt Schaub is slated to start for Baltimore but for the Ravens, the defense continues to be the biggest concern. The Ravens are giving up 24.9 points per game and this Cleveland Browns team scored 33 points on them, in the game that all but doomed their season.

Oddly enough that was the only game the Browns won with Josh McCown at the helm. Cleveland is 2-8 for the season and their absolute point difference is 125, an average of 12.5. Both their wins were by 3 points.

The Browns have lost 5 games in a row while scoring 13.6 points per game. During that same stretch, the Ravens are 2-3 while scoring 20.6 per game but this was with Joe Flacco at quarterback.

The question: Can Baltimore's defense hold the Browns to under 20 points? In games that McCown started and finished, Cleveland averages 21.5 points.

There are no numbers to predict the winner but all simulations show the Baltimore Ravens to lose by no more than 2 points.

So, I take Ravens (UNDER).  Pick wisely, and come back for Thursday's picks and tonight we find out how close the Ravens are to being dominant next season.

To Be The Man... - NFL 2015 MNF 11

Last Sunday, teams and fans around the country saw the New England Patriots pull out a last minute victory over the New York Giants. With each victory many fear the prospect of another undefeated regular season for the Patriots.

Though realistically the next true and last chance to spoil this outcome lies in next week's matchup against the Denver Broncos, the Buffalo Bills do pose some challenges for the New England Patriots.

One is familiarity, which can also work in the Patriots' favor. Second is Patriots looking ahead to next week. Third is Ric Flair's adage: To be the man, you gotta beat the man.

This is not just on Tyrod Taylor. It's not even on just Rex Ryan, though he had six seasons as the head coach of the New York Jets to unseat the Patriots.

This, this leviathan is on the Buffalo Bills and the other AFC East team who are just content to pray and pray for the Patriots' downfall. Are these three teams simply going to wait until Tom Brady retires?

Even after Brady retires, do they think Bill Belichick is not already preparing a new strategy or scouting for a comparable quarterback?

So, tonight's Monday Night Football game is Buffalo At New England (-7; 47.5). Whereas I called the upset special for the Houston Texans to beat the Cincinnati Bengals, I am not giving the Bills the same leeway.

The Buffalo Bills have to prove their real defense is the one that has kept 5 teams under 20 points five times this season.

This game is of utmost importance to Buffalo. A loss tonight and the AFC will have 8 teams vying for the final 2 playoff spots, with 5 of them holding a 5-5 record, the same one the Bills will have with a loss.

The New England Patriots have scored 27+ points in all 9 games. The Bills defense has only allowed that many points in 3 games, including the Week 2 matchup when the Patriots put 40 on them and won by 8 points.

The question is whether the Bills offense can put up 27+ points against the Patriots defense? The Bills scored 32 points in their previous matchup -- 19 points came in the fourth quarter, after they were down by 14 points.

The numbers break as Patriots (.842) to win by 14 points and Bills (.158) to win by 1 point.

So, I take Patriots (UNDER).  Pick wisely and come back for Thursday's picks. Tonight we find out whether the Bills are ready to dethrone the Patriots.

Texans Playing With House Money! - NFL 2015 MNF 10

The Houston Texans can do no wrong tonight. They will literally be playing with house money. The current line is Houston At Cincinnati (-10.5; 46.5).

Even with a 3-5 record, the Texans are only a half-game behind the Indianapolis Colts for the AFC South division lead. A win tonight and they will be tied with a chance at making the playoffs. The two teams have a comparable strength of schedule for their remaining games, which means their meeting in Week 15 could decide the division.

A win tonight against the undefeated (8-0) Cincinnati Bengals can be the restart Houston needs. So far, the Texans have been inconsistent, partly due to key injuries, specifically to Running Back, Arian Foster.

The Texans are near last in NFL Rushing at 87.9 yards per game and 6th in Passing at 281.5 yards per game. Much of this has to do with falling behind early in games and having to abandon the run. There has been some inconsistency at the quarterback position with the benching of Brian Hoyer. Now that the Texans have released Ryan Mallett, the position is for Hoyer to stabilize or lose for good.



The Texans should approach tonight's game with reckless abandon -- Pass first, go for it on 4th down when reasonable and speed up the game, possibly with a hurry up offense. This might be the best strategy because the Bengals defense is currently second in the league in points (17.8). This is interesting because they are not Top 10 in any other major defensive category.

The Bengals allow opponents to rack up yards while killing lots of clock and then limiting them to Field Goals. On offense, their offensive talent can score quickly- 3rd in points (28.6) while being 14th in actual Third Downs Made.

Houston's defense suffered two weeks where they gave up over 40 points (48 and 44). If the Texans defense can give up at or below the 25.6 points per game it allows, then not losing by 11 points is very likely.

The question: can the Bengals score 28 points tonight against a Texans defense that has proven to be an enigma?

The numbers break Bengals (.789) and Texans (.211), but I'm going out on a limb because I think Hoyer has a chance to be real Texas gunslinger while the defense holds up.

So, I take Texans (UNDER).  Pick wisely, and come back for Thursday's picks and tonight we find out just how desperate the Texans are for a win.

Who Are Da Bears? - NFL 2015 MNF 9

Chicago At San Diego (-4; 50)  has Wild Card playoff implications for both teams, but moreso for the Bears because they will be just one game behind the NFC logjam for the final playoff spot.

It is a tall order because, even after a win tonight, Chicago is likely to go no better than 4-4 in their final 8 games. But, what if, the Bears are not who we thought they were?

The Bears are only 2-5 but 4 of their losses have come to teams with .500 or better records. Four of these teams would qualify if the playoffs started today. Three of these losses were to division foes who know them well and two could have been wins -- lost by 3 points twice.



The blowout losses were to NFC West teams. In Week 2 against the Arizona Cardinals, the Bears trailed 28-20 at the half and then Quarterback Jay Cutler got hurt. The Bears went on to lose 48-23.

The next week they were shut out 26-0 on the road at Seattle with Jay Clausen at QB. With Cutler back from injury, Chicago won their next two matchups versus AFC West opponents.

The next two losses -- one due to questionable calls against them at Detroit -- were against fellow NFC North opponents.



Tonight's game will pit the Bears against another AFC West opponent, the San Diego Chargers who are 2-6 and currently on a four-game losing streak.

The Chargers are normally involved in high-scoring affairs because they have offensive firepower and score 23.88 points per game. In return, they give up 28.38.

San Diego has not yielded less than 24 points in any game this year. In both their Wins, the opponent scored, at least, 27 points.

In 3 of their last 4 games, the Bears have held teams to under 24 points.

The question: Do Da Bears have enough offensive firepower to withstand the Chargers' air assault?

The numbers break only on the percentages, not the spread: Bears (.684) and Chargers (.316)

So, I take Bears (Under).  Pick wisely, and come back for Thursday's picks and tonight we find out whether "da Bears are who we thought they were".

Carolina In My Mind - NFL 2015 MNF 8

A win tonight and the Carolina Panthers will remain the lone undefeated team in the NFC. Let's not look ahead because next week they face the Green Bay Packers who got handled and handed their first loss yesterday.

Even if we were to look ahead, Carolina has a chance to finish 14-2, provided they win tonight. Tonight's Monday Night Football matchup against the Indianapolis Colts can be problematic because the Panthers have not fully distinguished themselves.

Though they stand at 6-0, the Panthers have not beaten a team with a winning (over .500) record. The Panthers have been winning ugly, with defense being their calling card.



Coupled with a defense that only gives up 18.33 points per game, their offense puts up 27 points per game. The Panthers are about ball control -- the running game, which shortens the game and their opponents' opportunities to score.

On the other side, the Colts are near the bottom in scoring at 21 points per game. Their strength is the passing game which should make for an interesting battle against Carolina's defense.

Could this be the sleeper game where the Panthers fall behind early and are forced to abandon the run?

I'm thinking Carolina can win even if it comes down to that because Indianapolis gives up too many yards. The Panthers will get to, at least, 20 points.

The question for Indianapolis at Carolina (-5.5; 45.5): can the Colts score 18 or more points against the Panthers defense?

So, I take Panthers (Under).  Pick wisely, and come back for Thursday's picks and enjoy having Carolina on your mind.

Quoth the Raven “Nevermore.” - NFL 2015 MNF 7

Baltimore at Arizona (-10; 50) is the Ravens final trip out west for the year, where they are 0-3. Tonight we find out whether to say "Nevermore" to the Ravens' defensive identity.

Baltimore has yielded on average 27 points per game, en route to a 1-5 record that has them well out of the playoff picture. For this Monday Night Football matchup, they face the 4-2 Arizona Cardinals who are scoring 33.33 per game.

In amassing those offensive numbers, the Cardinals have not beaten a team with a .500 or better record. Overall, Arizona is giving up under 20 points a game.

So the question is whether the Ravens can score 23 points tonight. The Ravens average just shy of 24 points per game and have scored 23 or more 4 times in their 6 games.



The Cardinals should win this game but the 10 points are a bit much because the Ravens have not lost by more than 6 points all season.

So, I take Ravens (Under).  Pick wisely, and come back for Thursday's picks and enjoy this reading of The Raven by James Earl Jones.

Chargers Playing Second Fiddle - NFL 2015 MNF 5

Tonight's Monday Night Football matchup features two teams who are at 2-2 and are conceivably playing for a Wild Card Playoff spot, as both their division leaders are sitting at 5-0.

For the Pittsburgh Steelers, there is a built-in excuse, an injury to their starting quarterback. The Chargers, on the other hand, have not had a 10-win season since LaDainian Tomlinson left after the 2009 season.

Since then, San Diego has only made the playoffs once and have not won the AFC West. First, it was close finishes the Kansas City Chiefs, but lately the Chargers have been mostly playing second fiddle to the Chiefs and the Denver Broncos with Peyton Manning.

The Chargers are basically hitched to Philip Rivers until the end of his contract (app. $82 million) in 2019. They will continue to go as Rivers goes. This year they have won both their HOME games and lost both their AWAY games.


Defensively, they have given up, at least, 24 points each game. Their opponent, the Pittsburgh Steelers, only gave up more than 24 points once in four games -- to the New England Patriots.

The line is Pittsburgh Steelers At San Diego Chargers (-4; 45.5). The Chargers do play high scoring games, and except for one game this season, the Steelers have combined for 43 or more points.

The numbers show Steelers winning by up to 4 points, and the Chargers with a very slim chance to win by 1 point.

So, I take Steelers (Over).  Pick wisely, and come back for Thursday's picks and enjoy this playlist.

Seahawks, Legion in Bloom - NFL 2015 MNF 4

   
Detroit Lions At Seattle Seahawks (-10; 43) finds the Lions at a critical juncture in their season. The Green Bay Packers are running away with the NFC North division. A loss tonight puts Detroit at 0-4 and at risk to even qualify for the Wild Card.

The numbers favor the Seahawks to win by 2 points (.625) or the Lions to lose by 1 point (.375). No scenario where Lions will win.
So, I take Seahawks (Under).  Pick wisely, come back for Thursday's picks and enjoy this playlist.

Alex Smith, Time 4 Sum Aksion - NFL 2015 MNF 3

Tonight's Monday Night Football game of Kansas City At Green Bay (-5.5; 47.5) has all sorts of marketing angles, especially after both teams participated in two come-from-behind wins in their last game.

Unfortunately for the Kansas City Chiefs, they came out on the losing hand, mainly due to TurnOvers and the Referees extending the game in the last two minutes with some dubious calls.

The Chiefs have something major going for them -- their offense moved the ball well in both games, either in the Passing or Rushing game. Plus, their Defense has been solid.

The big question mark for the Chiefs is Alex Smith. Does he have what it takes to push to that next level?

On paper and just sheer visuals, Smith's counterpart, Aaron Rodgers is a better Quarterback. Rodgers's success is linked to a Green Bay Packers offensive system that calls on him to throw more and be accountable for all the mistakes, including taking a high number of Sacks.

For the Kansas City to beat Green Bay, they will need to score more by passing more.

The numbers favor the Packers to win by 7 points (.715) or the Chiefs to defy the odds and win by 4 points (.285).

So, I take Packers (Over).  Pick wisely, come back for Thursday's picks and enjoy this playlist.

Can I Get A Jets Fan? - NFL 2015 MNF 2

Upset-minded fans are looking at tonight's matchup of New York Jets At Indianapolis (-6.5; 45) as a continuation of yesterday's many unexpected results. It's really a split decision when it comes to the two true upsets and what the Jets have in common with those teams.

The Tampa Bay Bucs as an AWAY team, slated to lose by roughly 10 points was at best a 50% chance to not lose by that many. The Bucs did better than that and actually won the game. In recent years, the Bucs when faced with such spreads have pulled off similar upsets.

The Oakland Raiders at HOME lost the first week and were expected to lose again. As the Bucs, the Raiders are a team often faced with long odds. What the numbers couldn't pick up from yesterday's game is that the Ravens stayed out on the west coast after Week 1's game.

Neither of these are factors for the New York Jets. We then have to consider what the New York Jets showed last week on their way to their win, which was mainly propelled by knocking out the Cleveland Browns' starting Quarterback.

For the Colts, they get a pass because the Buffalo Bills put up points and are tough at home.

The numbers are not convincing for either team - Colts to win by 4 and Jets to lose by 6.

So, I go with Colts (Over).  Pick wisely, come back for Thursday's picks and enjoy this playlist.