NFL 2016 Week 12 RESULTS - Hedging the Straight Line

Week 12 -- features three teams fighting for their division and two more clinging to playoff hopes.

1)  New York Giants –  on a 6 game winning streak, still have chance to win NFC East, and won 4 slots including the Under.

2)  Buffalo Bills – not projected to cover the Spread but nearly did and won 4 slots including the OVER.

NFL 2016 Week 10 RESULTS- Hedging the Straight Line

 Week 10 Steady Performers:

1)  Kansas City Chiefs – won another slugfest, 4 slots, but stayed UNDER.

2)  Tennessee Titans – a dominating performance as an Underdog, winning 4 slots, including the OVER.

3)  Washington Redskins – handled their 2 slots plus 1 more slot with the OVER.

4)  Miami Dolphins – nice on the Road Underdog win, kept themselves in playoff mix, won both slots ATS and the OVER.

NFL 2016 Week 9 RESULTS- Hedging the Straight Line

Week 9 belonged to these Division leaders:

1)  Dallas Cowboys – continued dominating, won 4 slots and surprisingly didn't make the OVER.

2)  Atlanta Falcons – did their part, won 3 slots and the OVER while distancing themselves from their division.

3)  Kansas City Chiefs – showed they could win a slugfest - 3 slots, including the UNDER.

4)  Detroit Lions – nice Underdog win, both slots ATS and the UNDER.
     
5)  Seattle Seahawks – We will keep last week's warning: Not likely to cover or get covered.

NFL 2016 Week 6 RESULTS- Hedging the Straight Line

This Week’s theme was Return of the Underdogs, as 11 beat the Spread:

1)  Kansas City Chiefs – won 5 out of 5 slots

2)  Buffalo Bills – won the two projected and the Away ATS slot

3)  Dallas Cowboys – won the two ATS slots and the O/U

4)  Washington Redskins – won the two ATS slots and the O/U

5)  Miami Dolphins – won the two ATS slots and the O/U

NFL 2015 AFC Divisional Round (Chiefs vs Patriots)

Kansas City At New England (-5; 43.5) is an intriguing matchup because the Kansas City Chiefs have won 11 games in a row. Not only are the Chiefs getting the customary hedge of roughly 3 points for being the Away Underdog, they're getting an extra 2 points. These factors alone make this an easy ATS (against the spread) pick. Or, does it?

The New England Patriots have not looked dominant since Week 10, a last second win over the New York Giants. Their record since then is 3 Wins, 4 Losses. Of these losses, the one in Week 13 against the Philadelphia Eagles standout the most. Faced with various injuries, the outlook going into the game was the Patriots could beat the Eagles even when not at full-strength.

After leading early by 14 points, the Patriots faced a 21-point deficit in the fourth quarter. Though they mounted a comeback, it fell short. Since that time, it seems as if the Patriots packed it in for the season, in order to take care of injuries and dare I say to position themselves not to play one specific team (Pittsburgh Steelers) in this round of the playoffs.

I do not put much stock in the Patriots' last two losses of the season. At this point, five of the AFC six playoffs spots had been determined. The Patriots controlled their own destiny and they basically chose the second seed.

Injuries will be a big part of the story, mainly Rob Gronkowski (Patriots) and Jeremy Maclin (Chiefs). Both are listed as Questionable, with Gronkowski more likely to play. Without him, the Patriots offense is not as explosive and consistent. Without Maclin, the Chiefs do not have a passing game.

Already ranked near last this season in passing yards, this will put more pressure on the defense. The Chiefs defense has held the last 12 of 13 opponents to under 21 points. This sets up a great battle between one of the NFL's top secondaries and pass rushing defenses, and Tom Brady.

Brady led the NFL in Pass Attempts, Passing Yards and Passing TDs. He was pretty much New England's entire offense. The Patriots were ranked 30th in Rushing Yards and 5th in Passing Yards. Brady threw 2 or more TDs in 13 out of 16 games, so one can basically start the Patriots off with 14 to 21 points on the board.

The Patriots scored, at least, 20 points in 15 of their first 16 games this season. So, can the Chiefs score 21 or more points to edge out a victory? The Chiefs scored 21 points or more in 12 games this season.

With New England giving 5 points, the numbers favor the Chiefs (.789) because the Chiefs scored 17 or more points in all but two games this season.

So, I take the Chiefs (OVER), seeing this as well-balanced game on both sides of the ball, with the victor making the least costly turnover. Pick wisely, and check out the pick for the other playoff games.

NFL 2015 AFC Wild Card (Chiefs vs Texans)

Early this season, I was optimistic on the Kansas City Chiefs and their chance to win the AFC West division. Though that did not occur, the Chiefs showed  great resiliency by winning their final 10 games of the season. This is after losing 5 games in a row.

The Chiefs opened the season by beating the Houston Texans - score of 27 - 20. Though I felt that the Texans were facing desperate times as a franchise, I must admit my surprise in how they turned their season around. The Texans won 7 of their final 9 games to win the AFC South division.

Houston played through controversy and injuries at the quarterback position but it was their defense that righted the ship.

In the final 9 games, the Texans held opponents to under 18 points for 7 wins.

The Chiefs did the same in 8 of their final 10 winning games. Knowing we will witness two formidable defenses, what are the key points? The Chiefs defense is more explosive, particularly when it comes to the pass rush (Sacks) and Interceptions.

Brian Hoyer threw 7 INTS in 11 games, which on a percentage basis places him in the middle of the pack for starting quarterbacks. Where he does excel is that he throws nearly 2 TDs per game, which places him at the top third for starting quarterbacks.

Level of competition faced and performance against top teams do matter in determining which offense is more potent. Statistically the Texans offense rates better than the Chiefs, except in two key areas: points scored and rushing yards.

With the matchup being Kansas City At Houston (+3; 40) the numbers favor the Chiefs at .789.

So, I take the Chiefs (UNDER), either looking at a Chiefs blowout, or a grind out defensive struggle. Pick wisely, and check out the pick for the other playoff games.

Alex Smith, Time 4 Sum Aksion - NFL 2015 MNF 3

Tonight's Monday Night Football game of Kansas City At Green Bay (-5.5; 47.5) has all sorts of marketing angles, especially after both teams participated in two come-from-behind wins in their last game.

Unfortunately for the Kansas City Chiefs, they came out on the losing hand, mainly due to TurnOvers and the Referees extending the game in the last two minutes with some dubious calls.

The Chiefs have something major going for them -- their offense moved the ball well in both games, either in the Passing or Rushing game. Plus, their Defense has been solid.

The big question mark for the Chiefs is Alex Smith. Does he have what it takes to push to that next level?

On paper and just sheer visuals, Smith's counterpart, Aaron Rodgers is a better Quarterback. Rodgers's success is linked to a Green Bay Packers offensive system that calls on him to throw more and be accountable for all the mistakes, including taking a high number of Sacks.

For the Kansas City to beat Green Bay, they will need to score more by passing more.

The numbers favor the Packers to win by 7 points (.715) or the Chiefs to defy the odds and win by 4 points (.285).

So, I take Packers (Over).  Pick wisely, come back for Thursday's picks and enjoy this playlist.

Peyton's Last Rodeo - NFL 2015 TNF 2

This AFC West Division game will decide one thing: Are the Denver Broncos and Peyton Manning done as Super Bowl contenders? This has as much to do with a great showing by the Kansas City Chiefs and amazing comeback by the San Diego Chargers, as it does Peyton Manning and retirement.

The Denver Broncos offense never really got started against the Baltimore Ravens. This happens to many teams when they face the Ravens defense. But there was a bit more to it, a lack of sync, a lack of crispiness. Peyton Manning completed 60% of his passes for just 175 Yards and 1 INT.


They managed to pull out a win because it was a sloppy offensive game for both teams.

Heading into tonight's game, that is not something the Broncos can count on. Alex Smith and the Kansas City Chiefs demolished the Houston Texans in the first half and coasted to an easy victory. That is why Smith was under three hundred yards (243yds), while completing 66.7% of his passes, with 3 Touchdowns, ending with a QB Rating of 118.6.

The current lines are Kansas City (-3; 42.5) while I have the numbers as two strong teams where the Broncos can win by 6 or the Chiefs can win by 3, and the Over at 45. In a high scoring affair at Arrowhead Stadium and short week for both teams, I go Chiefs (Over).

Pick wisely, come back for Sunday's picks and Enjoy this playlist.