Week 15 -- Battle for divisions and precarious playoff positions.
1) Indianapolis Colts – won 5 slots, kept their division title hopes in play and pretty much knocked the Minnesota Vikings out of playoffs consideration.
2) New England Patriots – won 4 slots, clinched AFC East and put a hurt on the Denver Broncos' playoff hopes.
Tampa Bay At Indianapolis (-3; 46.5) is a must win game for both teams, yet only one team risks being eliminated from playoff contention with a loss.
Both teams are 5-5 but the Indianapolis Colts are tied for first place in the AFC South. The Colts must win because, after today's matchup, their remaining schedule features their three division rivals. All three opponents are vying for the division title. The Colts face two other AFC teams in play for the Wild Card.
For the Tampa Bay Buccaneers: lose this game and they can conceivably pack it in for the year. Though they will not be mathematically eliminated, they would be reliant on too many scenarios - losses - by other teams.
After this game, the Bucs too will face their three division rivals. By the time they face the Chicago Bears, the Bucs will either be out of playoff contention or have more control of their destiny.
Instead of getting too deep into each of today's teams scenarios, let's just say I see the Colts going 2-3 after today, and the Bucs 3-2.
For today's matchup, it really depends on which Bucs offense shows up, specifically Quarterback Jameis Winston. He is experiencing the normal adjustment that rookies face. Winston has thrown 15 TouchDowns and 9 Interceptions. The TouchDown numbers are spiked due to last week's game versus the Philadelphia Eagles when he threw 5 TDs. Otherwise he would have thrown almost as many TDs as INTs.
The good fortune for the Bucs is that they are second in the NFL in Rushing yards. They will face a Colts defense that is near the bottom in Passing and Rushing Yards, while giving up 24.8 points game.
Facing the Colts, scoring 21 points should be a given for the Bucs, who are 4-1 when their defense holds a team to under 21 points.
The question: Can Tampa Bay hold Indianapolis to under 21 points?
The Indianapolis Colts have scored 21+ points in 7 of their 10 games. With backup Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck at the helm, the Colts are 3-0 and he will start in place of the injured Andrew Luck.
What does this mean for the Bucs? It means Tampa Bay should take the air out of the ball and limit the Colts' possessions because in a high scoring game, the odds are with the Colts.
So, I take the Bucs (OVER). Pick wisely, come back for Monday's pick and until then see whether the Colts' home becomes Buc'town.
A win tonight and the Carolina Panthers will remain the lone undefeated team in the NFC. Let's not look ahead because next week they face the Green Bay Packers who got handled and handed their first loss yesterday.
Even if we were to look ahead, Carolina has a chance to finish 14-2, provided they win tonight. Tonight's Monday Night Football matchup against the Indianapolis Colts can be problematic because the Panthers have not fully distinguished themselves.
Though they stand at 6-0, the Panthers have not beaten a team with a winning (over .500) record. The Panthers have been winning ugly, with defense being their calling card.
Coupled with a defense that only gives up 18.33 points per game, their offense puts up 27 points per game. The Panthers are about ball control -- the running game, which shortens the game and their opponents' opportunities to score.
On the other side, the Colts are near the bottom in scoring at 21 points per game. Their strength is the passing game which should make for an interesting battle against Carolina's defense.
Could this be the sleeper game where the Panthers fall behind early and are forced to abandon the run?
I'm thinking Carolina can win even if it comes down to that because Indianapolis gives up too many yards. The Panthers will get to, at least, 20 points.
The question for Indianapolis at Carolina (-5.5; 45.5): can the Colts score 18 or more points against the Panthers defense?
So, I take Panthers (Under). Pick wisely, and come back for Thursday's picks and enjoy having Carolina on your mind.
A tale of two desperate teams: Indianapolis Colts At Houston Texans (-0.5; 41) might just bring a memorable night for the Houston franchise. This is a night where low expectations for the season collide with the reality that the division is there for the taking.
For an expansion franchise, the Houston Texans have seen some good times - two playoff appearances since their birth in 2002. They've only suffered two true expansion team-like seasons, with records of 2-14 in 2003 and 2013. After the latter, they decided to gut the team and start fresh and ended up with a surprising 9-7 record last season, mainly under the legs of Arian Foster.
With starting Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick gone and Foster injured, the Texans have struggled to a 1-3 record. Foster came back last week but did not see much playing time.
On the other side of the ball, the Colts the Colts are struggling this year, under the weight of expectations and an injury to starting Quarterback Andrew Luck.
This is a tough game to call, except the UNDER. The early numbers all point to Houston because they're at home, but as one pulls away and rely on history, Indianapolis balances things out.
Though a 50-50 split on the win, the Colts are at .684 to win by 3 points and the Texans at .316 to win by 2 points.
So, I take COLTS (Under). Pick wisely, come back for Sunday's picks and enjoy this playlist.
Upset-minded fans are looking at tonight's matchup of New York Jets At Indianapolis (-6.5; 45) as a continuation of yesterday's many unexpected results. It's really a split decision when it comes to the two true upsets and what the Jets have in common with those teams.
The Tampa Bay Bucs as an AWAY team, slated to lose by roughly 10 points was at best a 50% chance to not lose by that many. The Bucs did better than that and actually won the game. In recent years, the Bucs when faced with such spreads have pulled off similar upsets.
The Oakland Raiders at HOME lost the first week and were expected to lose again. As the Bucs, the Raiders are a team often faced with long odds. What the numbers couldn't pick up from yesterday's game is that the Ravens stayed out on the west coast after Week 1's game.
Neither of these are factors for the New York Jets. We then have to consider what the New York Jets showed last week on their way to their win, which was mainly propelled by knocking out the Cleveland Browns' starting Quarterback.
For the Colts, they get a pass because the Buffalo Bills put up points and are tough at home.
The numbers are not convincing for either team - Colts to win by 4 and Jets to lose by 6.
So, I go with Colts (Over). Pick wisely, come back for Thursday's picks and enjoy this playlist.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Houston Texans is this week’s biggest game, in that it features two evenly matched teams that cannot afford a loss. Though the Texans can anticipate or hope their lone competitive division rival, the Tennessee Titans, will fade, the Steelers do not have that luxury. The Ravens will not wilt, and both Browns and Bengals have a shot at finishing at least .500. The latter means any misstep could knock the Steelers out of the division and/or wildcard race.
Pittsburgh has a relatively easy schedule where they can win 9 out of their remaining 13 games without having to go beyond their norm. But, the Ravens, who demolished the Steelers in Week 1 also benefit from such scheduling. This means Pittsburgh must defeat the Texans to keep pace or gain an advantage.
To beat the Texans, the Steelers are going to have to score points, lots of them – 24 or more; something the Steelers have not done this season. Pittsburgh’s average of 18PPG (points per game) is a bit misleading since they have played in two blowouts in which the losing team scored in single digits – one loss (7pts); one win (0 points).
In that win against the St. Louis Rams, they “took their foot off the gas” in the 3rd quarter. Their other game, a win with a score of 23-20, showed them in a battle, but it was against the Colts who are without star QB Peyton Manning. Basically it comes down to not being able to pinpoint, just which performance is the real Pittsburgh Steelers.
This game against the Houston Texans will give us that answer because the Texans have put up 23+ points in all games. They have done this in three disparate contests – 4th quarter fade against powerhouse New Orleans; up and down game versus Miami; and a shellacking of the hapless Colts.
This game will come down to Texans offense battling Steelers defense, specifically the Passing game: 12th ranked Texans versus 1st ranked passing defense. Listed as “probable" to play, the Texans RB Ben Tate’s production is a given, especially since the Steelers run defense roughly yields what he produces (4.6 yards per rush; nearly 100 yards per game).
Even with Tate (listed as probale) in the lineup, can Matt Schaub maintain his average: 274 ypg on 65% passing, and 2:1 TD/INT ratio?
NFL PICKS Week 4
Steelers (+3.5) Under (45) – Texans might win but covering while putting up lots of points? Only elite teams do that against the Steelers.
Saints vs Colts is the matchup for Super Bowl XLIV (Super Bowl 44). Though this game between the New Orleans Saints and Indianapolis Colts has not received the normal fanfare that recent Super Bowls have, this contest features two marquee Quarter Backs: this NFL season’s MVP Peyton Manning, and Pro Bowler Drew Brees.
To win this game, the Saints will need a big game from Running Backs Reggie Bush and Mike Bell. For Bush, his contribution will be the all-around game he provides, particularly field position off of kick returns. The New Orleans Saints might want to follow the blueprint they used to march all over the New England Patriots in a NFL Week 11.
Saints vs Vikings final score of 31-28 clinches the NFC championship game 2010 for the New Orleans Saints. The Saints head into Super Bowl XLIV (44) in Miami, FL as a +2.5 underdog (early lines) where they face the Indianapolis Colts and NFL MVP Peyton Manning.
This matchup lived up to its billing and went into overtime tied at 28-28. It came down to my prediction that a field goal would decide it.
Jets vs Colts - AFC Championship game 2010 result: 30-17. The Indianapolis Colts defeated the New York Jets by displaying the offensive firepower they are known for. Trailing at the half (17-13), the Colts scored 17 points in the second half as Quarterback Peyton Manning threw 3 Touchdowns for the game – one to Pierre Garcon. The Colts advance to Super Bowl XLIV (44) in Miami. FL where they are the early favorites at -2.5 points. The turning points were the injury to Jets Corner Back Donald Strickland, 2 passes to Austin Collie (one for a touchdown), and an early second half injury to Jets Running Back Shonn Greene.
Saints vs Vikings is the highly anticipated NFC Championship game that features two high-powered offenses that scored 24+ points in all their wins. The Minnesota Vikings lost only 1 game where they scored that much and all 3 games they did not. The New Orleans Saints lost their last 3 games of the season and they scored less than 24 points in each of them.
With each offense featuring a Pro-Bowl Quarterback in Brett Favre and Drew Brees, the game will come down to which defense makes the early stop.
Jets vs Colts in the AFC Championship game? What were those odds when the season started? For the New York Jets to beat the Indianapolis Colts, they need to look at the film of 3 games. The New York Jets defense is comparable to the Jacksonville Jaguars, San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens; and to a certain degree, they share offensive philosophies, especially with the Ravens.
Though the Jets have to play a conservative offensive game, the Indianapolis Colts failed to score 27+ points in only 4 games this season.
Jets vs Colts should not be close though many pundits are giving the New York Jets a chance to win this NFL Playoffs 2010 matchup. Do they not realize that the pressure they claim Peyton Manning is par for the course? The Indianapolis Colts have been a dominant franchise since Tony Dungy arrived.
The Colts won 10 games that first season (2002) and have won 12 games for 7 straight years – doing it this year with a new coach.
Jets vs Colts shows no matter how much people claim that defense wins championships that deep down they “dig the long ball”. For the New York Jets to win the AFC Championship and beat the Indianapolis Colts in this NFL Playoffs 2010 matchup, they’re going to need Quarterback Mark Sanchez to go deep at least once - then they will make it to Super Bowl XLIV.
The New York Jets are not an enigma. They do not try to trick teams. They prefer to run the ball and have their defense control field position.
Jets vs Chargers on paper is the most lopsided matchup of this weekend’s NFL Playoffs Divisional Round games. The winner faces the Indianapolis Colts. The betting line has the New York Jets as a +8 underdog to the San Diego Chargers which is comparable to 2 of the other matchups. But, very few people think the Jets can pull out an outright win.
The New York Jets are not your cuddly, underdog Cinderella story. They are a team led by a boastful coach (Rex Ryan) who has handed his team its Super Bowl itinerary including the parade date.
Ravens vs Colts is the primetime matchup on Saturday for the NFL Playoffs Divisional Round between two teams whose identities reside on different ends of the NFL spectrum. The Indianapolis Colts are an offensive force with a steady defense, while the Baltimore Ravens dominate on defense and ask the offense not to lose the game.
The Ravens have shown that they can disrupt any offense, including the Colts who they lost to in NFL Week 10 – final score: 17-15.
Heading into NFL Week 17 of the 2009 season, I am nearly certain this has been one of the worst seasons in a long time. Putting together this week’s NFL Power Rankings made me wonder whether any of these teams really care about this coming week or even winning the Super Bowl. The two main stories we followed all year fizzled.
Fans had a chance to see two undefeated teams in the Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints fade over the past two weeks.
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