NFL 2016 Wild Card RESULTS - Hedging the Straight Line

Oakland Raiders vs Houston Texans

Detroit Lions vs Seattle Seahawks

Miami Dolphins vs Pittsburgh Steelers

NY Giants vs Green Bay Packers

NFL 2016 Week 7 MNF Texans Broncos - Hedging the Straight Line

For tonight's game: 

Houston Texans at Denver Broncos--

1) Texans to lose by 3 points -- projected

2) Broncos to win by 5 points -- projected

3) Opening Spread -- Broncos (-7.5 points)

4) Projected O/U 40.25

5) Actual O/U 40.50

NFL 2015 AFC Wild Card (Chiefs vs Texans)

Early this season, I was optimistic on the Kansas City Chiefs and their chance to win the AFC West division. Though that did not occur, the Chiefs showed  great resiliency by winning their final 10 games of the season. This is after losing 5 games in a row.

The Chiefs opened the season by beating the Houston Texans - score of 27 - 20. Though I felt that the Texans were facing desperate times as a franchise, I must admit my surprise in how they turned their season around. The Texans won 7 of their final 9 games to win the AFC South division.

Houston played through controversy and injuries at the quarterback position but it was their defense that righted the ship.

In the final 9 games, the Texans held opponents to under 18 points for 7 wins.

The Chiefs did the same in 8 of their final 10 winning games. Knowing we will witness two formidable defenses, what are the key points? The Chiefs defense is more explosive, particularly when it comes to the pass rush (Sacks) and Interceptions.

Brian Hoyer threw 7 INTS in 11 games, which on a percentage basis places him in the middle of the pack for starting quarterbacks. Where he does excel is that he throws nearly 2 TDs per game, which places him at the top third for starting quarterbacks.

Level of competition faced and performance against top teams do matter in determining which offense is more potent. Statistically the Texans offense rates better than the Chiefs, except in two key areas: points scored and rushing yards.

With the matchup being Kansas City At Houston (+3; 40) the numbers favor the Chiefs at .789.

So, I take the Chiefs (UNDER), either looking at a Chiefs blowout, or a grind out defensive struggle. Pick wisely, and check out the pick for the other playoff games.

Texans Playing With House Money! - NFL 2015 MNF 10

The Houston Texans can do no wrong tonight. They will literally be playing with house money. The current line is Houston At Cincinnati (-10.5; 46.5).

Even with a 3-5 record, the Texans are only a half-game behind the Indianapolis Colts for the AFC South division lead. A win tonight and they will be tied with a chance at making the playoffs. The two teams have a comparable strength of schedule for their remaining games, which means their meeting in Week 15 could decide the division.

A win tonight against the undefeated (8-0) Cincinnati Bengals can be the restart Houston needs. So far, the Texans have been inconsistent, partly due to key injuries, specifically to Running Back, Arian Foster.

The Texans are near last in NFL Rushing at 87.9 yards per game and 6th in Passing at 281.5 yards per game. Much of this has to do with falling behind early in games and having to abandon the run. There has been some inconsistency at the quarterback position with the benching of Brian Hoyer. Now that the Texans have released Ryan Mallett, the position is for Hoyer to stabilize or lose for good.



The Texans should approach tonight's game with reckless abandon -- Pass first, go for it on 4th down when reasonable and speed up the game, possibly with a hurry up offense. This might be the best strategy because the Bengals defense is currently second in the league in points (17.8). This is interesting because they are not Top 10 in any other major defensive category.

The Bengals allow opponents to rack up yards while killing lots of clock and then limiting them to Field Goals. On offense, their offensive talent can score quickly- 3rd in points (28.6) while being 14th in actual Third Downs Made.

Houston's defense suffered two weeks where they gave up over 40 points (48 and 44). If the Texans defense can give up at or below the 25.6 points per game it allows, then not losing by 11 points is very likely.

The question: can the Bengals score 28 points tonight against a Texans defense that has proven to be an enigma?

The numbers break Bengals (.789) and Texans (.211), but I'm going out on a limb because I think Hoyer has a chance to be real Texas gunslinger while the defense holds up.

So, I take Texans (UNDER).  Pick wisely, and come back for Thursday's picks and tonight we find out just how desperate the Texans are for a win.

Houston Texans - Desperate Times NFL 2015 TNF 5

A tale of two desperate teams: Indianapolis Colts At Houston Texans (-0.5; 41) might just bring a memorable night for the Houston franchise. This is a night where low expectations for the season collide with the reality that the division is there for the taking.

For an expansion franchise, the Houston Texans have seen some good times - two playoff appearances since their birth in 2002. They've only suffered two true expansion team-like seasons, with records of 2-14 in 2003 and 2013. After the latter, they decided to gut the team and start fresh and ended up with a surprising 9-7 record last season, mainly under the legs of Arian Foster.

With starting Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick gone and Foster injured, the Texans have struggled to a 1-3 record. Foster came back last week but did not see much playing time.

On the other side of the ball, the Colts the Colts are struggling this year, under the weight of expectations and an injury to starting Quarterback Andrew Luck.
This is a tough game to call, except the UNDER. The early numbers all point to Houston because they're at home, but as one pulls away and rely on history, Indianapolis balances things out.

Though a 50-50 split on the win, the Colts are at .684 to win by 3 points and the Texans at .316 to win by 2 points.

So, I take COLTS (Under).  Pick wisely, come back for Sunday's picks and enjoy this playlist.

1. Charlie Robison - Desperate Times
2. Randy Rogers Band - Buy Myself A Chance
3. Fat Pat - Tops Drop

NFL 2012, Week 4: Hedging the Straight-Line (Projections)

9/30/2012		Hedging the Straight-Line
WEEK 4		NFL 2012 Season
		by Guichard Cadet
Home		Away	Hedging		Straight Line	Projected Total Score
Baltimore Ravens		Cleveland Browns	-16.01		-14.15	50.1
Atlanta Falcons		Carolina Panthers	-12.53		-6.75	50.0
Buffalo Bills		New England Patriots	11.59		1.42	61.3
Detroit Lions		Minnesota Vikings	1.32		-4.25	52.8
Houston Texans		Tennessee Titans	-21.74		-9.77	51.7
Kansas City Chiefs		San Diego Chargers	7.20		-2.83	49.8
New York Jets		San Francisco 49ers	-3.45		-4.69	55.0
St. Louis Rams		Seattle Seahawks	6.78		5.31	42.4
Arizona Cardinals		Miami Dolphins	-11.76		-7.56	44.0
Denver Broncos		Oakland Raiders	-8.61		-6.23	49.8
Jacksonville Jaguars		Cincinnati Bengals	-3.76		10.73	53.1
Green Bay Packers		New Orleans Saints	-6.53		-1.13	52.0
Tampa Bay Buccaneers		Washington Redskins	-0.51		3.33	54.5
Philadelphia Eagles		New York Giants	4.34		11.00	47.5
Dallas Cowboys		Chicago Bears	6.93		7.58	45.3

Week 4, 2011: Steelers vs Texans by EvenMoney

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Houston Texans is this week’s biggest game, in that it features two evenly matched teams that cannot afford a loss. Though the Texans can anticipate or hope their lone competitive division rival, the Tennessee Titans, will fade, the Steelers do not have that luxury. The Ravens will not wilt, and both Browns and Bengals have a shot at finishing at least .500. The latter means any misstep could knock the Steelers out of the division and/or wildcard race.

Courtesy of NflHighlightsTv

Pittsburgh has a relatively easy schedule where they can win 9 out of their remaining 13 games without having to go beyond their norm. But, the Ravens, who demolished the Steelers in Week 1 also benefit from such scheduling. This means Pittsburgh must defeat the Texans to keep pace or gain an advantage.

HIGHLIGHTS - Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Week 3, 2011

To beat the Texans, the Steelers are going to have to score points, lots of them – 24 or more; something the Steelers have not done this season. Pittsburgh’s average of 18PPG (points per game) is a bit misleading since they have played in two blowouts in which the losing team scored in single digits – one loss (7pts); one win (0 points).

In that win against the St. Louis Rams, they “took their foot off the gas” in the 3^rd quarter. Their other game, a win with a score of 23-20, showed them in a battle, but it was against the Colts who are without star QB Peyton Manning. Basically it comes down to not being able to pinpoint, just which performance is the real Pittsburgh Steelers.

This game against the Houston Texans will give us that answer because the Texans have put up 23+ points in all games. They have done this in three disparate contests – 4^th quarter fade against powerhouse New Orleans; up and down game versus Miami; and a shellacking of the hapless Colts.

HIGHLIGHTS - Houston Texans vs. New Orleans Saints Week 3, 2011

This game will come down to Texans offense battling Steelers defense, specifically the Passing game: 12^th ranked Texans versus 1^st ranked passing defense. Listed as “probable" to play, the Texans RB Ben Tate’s production is a given, especially since the Steelers run defense roughly yields what he produces (4.6 yards per rush; nearly 100 yards per game).

Even with Tate (listed as probale) in the lineup, can Matt Schaub maintain his average: 274 ypg on 65% passing, and 2:1 TD/INT ratio?

NFL PICKS Week 4

Steelers (+3.5) Under (45) – Texans might win but covering while putting up lots of points? Only elite teams do that against the Steelers.

10/2 1:00 ET At Houston -3.5 Pittsburgh 45

http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_lines.shtml @10/01/11 @ 11:05pm

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