NFL 2016 Week 13 RESULTS - Hedging the Straight Line

Week 13 -- Favorites dominated for the most part.
1)  Cincinnati Bengals –  won 4 slots and essentially knocked the Philadelphia Eagles out of playoffs consideration.

2)  Denver Broncos – won 3 slots and covered the Spread though not projected to do so.

NFL 2016 Week 8 RESULTS- Hedging the Straight Line

Week 8 was one with inconsistent results and forces us to look at the division leaders.

1)  New England Patriots – continues to cover and has a 3 game lead in AFC East.

2)  Pittsburgh Steelers – Bye Week, lost previous two games and won the two before (big).

3)  Houston Texans – covered and is 2-2 in past 4 games. Covers when Favorite, and doesn't beat spread when the Underdog.

NFL 2016 Week 7 RESULTS- Hedging the Straight Line

Week 7 was pretty much a split between Favorites and Underdogs.

1)  New Orleans Saints – won 4 slots, lost the game and surprisingly didn't make the OVER.

2)  San Diego Chargers – won 4 slots and kept their season alive.

3)  Green Bay Packers – won the two ATS slots and the O/U

4)  Denver Broncos – won the two ATS slots and the O/U

NFL 2016 Week 7 MNF Texans Broncos - Hedging the Straight Line

For tonight's game: 

Houston Texans at Denver Broncos--

1) Texans to lose by 3 points -- projected

2) Broncos to win by 5 points -- projected

3) Opening Spread -- Broncos (-7.5 points)

4) Projected O/U 40.25

5) Actual O/U 40.50

NFL 2016 Week 6 TNF: Broncos Chargers - Hedging the Straight Line

For tonight's game: 

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers--

1) Broncos to win by 5 points -- projected

2) Chargers to lose by 3 points -- projected

3) Opening Spread -- Broncos (-3.5)

4) Projected O/U 44.43

5) Actual O/U 45.00

NFL 2016 Week 4 RESULTS- Hedging the Straight Line

This Week’s Steady Performers:

1)  Denver Broncos – won 4 out of 5 slots

2)  Cincinnati Bengals – won the two projected and the O/U

3)  Minnesota Vikings – won the two projected and split ATS (against the spread)

NFL 2015 Week 15 - EvenMoney's Game of the Week (Broncos vs Steelers)

Denver At Pittsburgh (-6.5; 45.5) is about respect and lack of it. Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers have scored 30+ points in five straight games. They are 4-1 in these games and have put themselves in position to control their own playoff destiny.

If the Steelers win all three games or have the same number of victories as the New York Jets, they make the playoffs and the Jets do not. This is complicated NFL tie-breaker math that will play itself out in the coming weeks, if necessary.

In the same time span, the Denver Broncos have only once scored 30 points, an overtime victory over the at-the-time undefeated New England Patriots. The Broncos are 3-2 over this stretch and 3-1 since backup Quarterback Brock Osweiler replaced Peyton Manning as the starter.

The Broncos are one victory away from clinching a playoff spot but they still have to worry about the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs have won eight straight. If both teams finish with 11 wins, then the complicated NFL tie-breaker math will determine the division winner.

The numbers point to a Steelers (.842) victory and cover.  For this game, the question is whether the Broncos defense can hold the Steelers to 20 points or less.

So, I take the Steelers (UNDER) because Steelers even though their defense is up and down, the offense is operating on a high level. Pick wisely, come back for Monday's pick and until then watch two top AFC teams earn their respect.

Peyton's Last Rodeo - NFL 2015 TNF 2

This AFC West Division game will decide one thing: Are the Denver Broncos and Peyton Manning done as Super Bowl contenders? This has as much to do with a great showing by the Kansas City Chiefs and amazing comeback by the San Diego Chargers, as it does Peyton Manning and retirement.

The Denver Broncos offense never really got started against the Baltimore Ravens. This happens to many teams when they face the Ravens defense. But there was a bit more to it, a lack of sync, a lack of crispiness. Peyton Manning completed 60% of his passes for just 175 Yards and 1 INT.


They managed to pull out a win because it was a sloppy offensive game for both teams.

Heading into tonight's game, that is not something the Broncos can count on. Alex Smith and the Kansas City Chiefs demolished the Houston Texans in the first half and coasted to an easy victory. That is why Smith was under three hundred yards (243yds), while completing 66.7% of his passes, with 3 Touchdowns, ending with a QB Rating of 118.6.

The current lines are Kansas City (-3; 42.5) while I have the numbers as two strong teams where the Broncos can win by 6 or the Chiefs can win by 3, and the Over at 45. In a high scoring affair at Arrowhead Stadium and short week for both teams, I go Chiefs (Over).

Pick wisely, come back for Sunday's picks and Enjoy this playlist.

Week 12, 2011: Raiders vs. Bears by EvenMoney

Oakland Raiders vs. Chicago Bears highlights a week where we are very wary of picking underdogs. So, we go to two seemingly evenly-matched teams that were not on our radar this season. Both, especially the Oakland Raiders, are having better than expected seasons. Since they are matched up in pivotal games for each of them, we figured it is time to look into the numbers. From there, project just how serious a threat they are come playoff time.

Courtesy of WILxCHARGERS

If they lose and the Denver Broncos win today, the Raiders will find themselves in a tie with the Broncos for the AFC West lead. This loss could also put their playoffs hope in jeopardy as the AFC second tier of playoff teams is crowded, with 5 other teams trying to secure 2 slots.

The Raiders need this win to convince many, including themselves, that they truly belong atop their division. A loss today could be the start of a four-game losing streak, or they can hold pace and finish by splitting their remaining 6 games for a 10-6 record.

Ironically the Raiders are facing what I see as their NFC counterpart, a team that has benefitted from a major slide by the Detroit Lions. This has allowed the Bears to climb into second place in the NFC North, behind the undefeated Green Bay Packers. But, unlike the Raiders, the remainder of the Bears schedule is relatively weak. A win today and they can easily win 4 of the 5 other remaining games, to finish the season at 12-4.

Besides benefitting from weak schedules, what are the Bears and Raiders doing correctly? They both put up lots of points and have enough strength in both the running and passing game. They do not rank highly in any individual category, with Oakland being the better statistical team, specifically in rushing (4.9 vs. 4.3 yards per rush; and 5.5 more rushes per game).

Defensively, they’re even with the Bears being a run-stopping, low-scoring defense, while the Raiders are a bend but don’t break model.

NFL PICKS Week 12

Raiders (-3) Over (41) – Though not a highlight of our analysis, the absence of Bears QuarterBack Jay Cutler will be the deciding factor because the Raiders will now be able place more emphasis on stopping the run.

11/27 4:05 ET     At Oakland         -3            Chicago                41

http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_lines.shtml @11/27/11 @ 2:00pm

Even Money’s NFL PICKS Week 16 Sunday – Eagles vs Broncos

Eagles vs Broncos is the marquee match-up for NFL Picks Week 16 All Sunday Games. Simply put, the Philadelphia Eagles have been brutalizing opponents and making a strong push for the NFC Playoffs 2nd seed. Their opponent, the Denver Broncos come off a loss to the Oakland Raiders, and are barely holding on to their AFC Playoffs Wild Card hopes. They dropped from 9 to 13 in our Power Rankings this past week.
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All HOME teams are favored for this Sunday’s games, except for the Washington Redskins. This might sound like an easy week to be picking but the favored Titans lost yesterday.

EVEN MONEY’S NFL PICKS WEEK 16 All Games:

FULL ARTICLE