NFL 2016 Week 8 MNF Vikings Bears - Hedging the Straight Line

For tonight's game:

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears--

1) Vikings to win by 7 points -- projected

2) Bears to lose by 8 points -- projected

3) Opening Spread -- Vikings (-5.5 points)

4) Projected O/U 37.45

5) Actual O/U 41.00

NFL 2016 Week 7 TNF: Bears Packers - Hedging the Straight Line

For tonight's game: 

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers

1) Packers to win by 0.20 points -- projected

2) Bears to lose by 7 points -- projected

3) Spread -- Packers (-7.5)

4) Projected O/U 43.03

5) Actual O/U 46.00

Bears, Eagles, A Rush On Me - NFL 2016 MNF 2

Brandon Marshall - Denver Broncos

"After losing CenturyLink and Air Academy Credit Union as paid endorsements, entertainment mogul Russell Simmons has reached out to Marshall to get him to endorse “RushCard,” which is a prepaid Visa card."  --Curtis Crabtree

"Yes, they offer some convenience for the 25% of Americans who are unbanked or underbanked. But in exchange, prepaid cards charge exorbitant fees. Why not just educate people on how to bank smart and avoid fees through the use of fee-free FDIC-insured banks and credit unions? They do exist."  --CBS News 2011

Can Green Bay Lead from the Middle of the Pack? NFL 2015 TNF 12

The Green Bay Packers are in a precarious position. They are competing for playoff positioning against two teams: the Minnesota Vikings and the Arizona Cardinals.

Each of these 3 teams have 3 "should win games" on their schedule and they face one another in the coming weeks. Arizona is one game ahead of Green Bay in the NFC, and Green Bay is tied with Minnesota in the NFC North division.

So, Chicago at Green Bay (-8, 45) is not the game for the Packers to try reverting to the style of play from the early part of this season when they won their first 6 games.

The Packers have to come to terms that they are a team that lost 3 games in a row. This past Sunday's win against the Minnesota Vikings put them back on the right track but they are not fully back. Gone should be, in their memory, the attitude they should win games by 10 points.

If the playoffs were to start today, 5 of the 7 teams the Packers beat would not qualify. The Packers defense gives up too many yards. During the first 6 games, they scored first and were able to control the pace. Most of the teams they beat did not feature high octane offenses, which meant the Packers defense could take risks to force TurnOvers.

In today's game, they face a Chicago Bears team that technically cannot hurt them on offense. The Bears are content to score 23 points and let their defense handle the rest.

The Packers beat the Bears 31 - 23 in this year's earlier matchup. The Bears defense has improved since early in the season. Their focus is to not allow big passing plays, which could be seen as a test for Aaron Rodgers.

Conversely, Green Bay can see this as an opportunity to put the past behind them and be content to mainly rush the ball. This will limit the amount of time their defense is on the field.

The numbers point to a win by Green Bay (.842) but not covering the spread, because the Packers are more comfortable in high scoring games. As such, look for that slim chance of a Bears victory (.158).

I take Bears (OVER) even though I see a Packers victory. Pick wisely, come back for Sunday's picks and until then watch out for the leader of the pack.

Who Are Da Bears? - NFL 2015 MNF 9

Chicago At San Diego (-4; 50)  has Wild Card playoff implications for both teams, but moreso for the Bears because they will be just one game behind the NFC logjam for the final playoff spot.

It is a tall order because, even after a win tonight, Chicago is likely to go no better than 4-4 in their final 8 games. But, what if, the Bears are not who we thought they were?

The Bears are only 2-5 but 4 of their losses have come to teams with .500 or better records. Four of these teams would qualify if the playoffs started today. Three of these losses were to division foes who know them well and two could have been wins -- lost by 3 points twice.



The blowout losses were to NFC West teams. In Week 2 against the Arizona Cardinals, the Bears trailed 28-20 at the half and then Quarterback Jay Cutler got hurt. The Bears went on to lose 48-23.

The next week they were shut out 26-0 on the road at Seattle with Jay Clausen at QB. With Cutler back from injury, Chicago won their next two matchups versus AFC West opponents.

The next two losses -- one due to questionable calls against them at Detroit -- were against fellow NFC North opponents.



Tonight's game will pit the Bears against another AFC West opponent, the San Diego Chargers who are 2-6 and currently on a four-game losing streak.

The Chargers are normally involved in high-scoring affairs because they have offensive firepower and score 23.88 points per game. In return, they give up 28.38.

San Diego has not yielded less than 24 points in any game this year. In both their Wins, the opponent scored, at least, 27 points.

In 3 of their last 4 games, the Bears have held teams to under 24 points.

The question: Do Da Bears have enough offensive firepower to withstand the Chargers' air assault?

The numbers break only on the percentages, not the spread: Bears (.684) and Chargers (.316)

So, I take Bears (Under).  Pick wisely, and come back for Thursday's picks and tonight we find out whether "da Bears are who we thought they were".

Week 7, 2011: Bears vs Bucs by EvenMoney

Chicago Bears vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (At London) is this week’s spotlight game, in a week with not many marquee matchups. Of the two games that pass the test, we chose this one because for the Bears, if they lose, they might as well hibernate for the winter. Though the Bucs’ playoff fate will not be decided for, at least, two more weeks, a loss keeps them questioning whether they will ever take that proverbial step forward.

Courtesy of dclfboy5

In Week 1, we questioned the Bucs’ readiness and they’ve slightly surpassed our expectations, because of last week’s win over the New Orleans Saints. But, at the same time, that blowout loss (48-3) to the San Francisco 49ers two weeks ago has us back to square one. Who are the Bucs and can they surpass our projected win total of 9, for the season? A win this week simply holds us at this projection, and remotely a chance at 10 wins for the season.

A loss and it could mean no playoffs, even though the Bucs have beaten both the other top teams in their division. For this week, let us focus on a Bucs team that loses whenever it gives up more than 20 points in a game. They will be facing a Bears team that only wins when it scores 30+ points or keeps the opponent at 17 points and under.

NFL HIGHLIGHTS Week 6, 2011

In a nutshell, one team loves a blowout and the other does not; one has no identity and the other does. On paper, the Bucs defense is in the league’s lower tier, except where it counts: Points Against. On offense, they are mediocre across the board. A lot of their stats – offense and defense - have to do with the San Francisco game, where they did not show up on either side of the ball. This game against the Bears will tell which side of the ball they can count on for the remainder of the season.

The Bears have similar problems, except they are worse offensively and defensively. Their lone advantage is their Special Teams, specifically Returns featuring Devin Hester.

NFL PICKS Week 7

Bucs (+1.5) Over (43.5) – Go with consistency and quality of opponents, and Josh Freeman is playing (slightly) better than Jay Cutler.

10/23 1:00 ET Chicago -1.5 Tampa Bay (At London) 43.5

http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_lines.shtml @10/22/11 @ 11:40pm

Week 6, 2011: Lions vs 49ers by EvenMoney

San Francisco 49ers @ Detroit Lions is this week’s spotlight game, in a week with at least 8 other matchups we could have chosen. To think in Weeks 1 and 2 when we covered both these teams, we did so to lay down the gauntlet and they both responded. In Week 1 the Lions won and have maintained that pace - currently at 5-0. In Week 2, though the 49ers lost, the result was a Push (at 3 points) and similar to the Detroit Lions, they sit atop their division (with a 4-1 record).

This week’s game means the same thing to both teams, in that, any misstep, doubt could creep in and give their closest division competitor a chance to wrest control out of their hands. This is more of a concern for the Lions because the defending Super Bowl Champions – the Green Bay Packers – are also 5-0. The two teams will play 2 times, and if they should split, then the overall record and record within the conference will be the key factors in which team is crowned.

Courtesy of ZMRinzler

For the 49ers, they have a two-game division lead over the Seattle Seahawks. As we stated before, the NFC West will only send one team to the playoffs. Avoid any sort of losing streak, a playoff slot is theirs. A win against the Lions (pretty much) guarantees the 49ers, a 10-win season; within the NFC West, that is a playoff lock. A loss will tilt them to 9 wins or less, something the Seahawks could achieve.

The two teams are evenly matched in output: Scoring PPG (Lions 31.8; 49ers 28.4), and Defense (Points Against – Lions 17.8; 49ers 15.6). The difference is how each team goes about scoring. For the Detroit Lions, it’s an all-out air assault that has them Top 10 in Attempts, Completions, Percentage, Yardage and TDs (#3).

HIGHLIGHTS – Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears Week 5, 2011

The Lions are doing this behind the arm and on the shoulders of QuarterBack Matthew Stafford who is just 13 yards shy of 300 per game, and has a 3:1 TD/INT ratio.

Contrast this with the 49ers who are winning because of their Rushing defense and offense. They have relegated QuarterBack Alex Smith to a ball-control, manager type. Smith is ranked 29^th out of NFL QB’s in Attempts (126) and YPG (193). He’s more prone to take the Sack (14) than throw an INT (1). So, how are the 49ers producing offense? Answer: Frank Gore (80 YPG) and Kendall Hunter (27 YGG).

HIGHLIGHTS – San Francisco 49ers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Week 5, 2011

As a team, the 49ers are ranked 7^th in Rushing Attempts and 32^nd in Passing Attempts. They take this imbalanced offense into Detroit to face a Lions team that is balanced on defense. Their Pass defense is superior to their Rush defense, and it is tested the most by opponents. Though the Lions Rusing defense gives up a lot of yards per game and per carry, they’ve only given up 1 TD all season.

NFL PICKS Week 6

49ers (+4) Under (46) – Comparison of common opponent as well as the quality of opponents; the Lions are coming off a Monday Night Football appearance; and that extra point where a Field Goal doesn’t do it ATS (against the spread).

10/16 1:00 ET At Detroit -4 San Francisco 46

http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_lines.shtml @10/15/11 @ 10:00pm

Even Money’s NFL PICKS Week 16: Favre, Vikings vs Bears, Monday Night Football

Vikings vs Bears is the matchup for NFL Picks Week 16 Monday Night Football and we get a peek at Brett Favre days after he usurped all power from Minnesota Vikings Head Coach Brad Childress. Tonight’s battle against the Chicago Bears has more playoff implications because of the New Orleans Saints’ second loss of the season.

The Minnesota Vikings had been a steady ship all season until their loss to the Arizona Cardinals.

FULL ARTICLE