NFL 2016 Week 7 TNF: Bears Packers - Hedging the Straight Line

For tonight's game: 

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers

1) Packers to win by 0.20 points -- projected

2) Bears to lose by 7 points -- projected

3) Spread -- Packers (-7.5)

4) Projected O/U 43.03

5) Actual O/U 46.00

NFL 2015 AFC Wild Card (Chiefs vs Texans)

Early this season, I was optimistic on the Kansas City Chiefs and their chance to win the AFC West division. Though that did not occur, the Chiefs showed  great resiliency by winning their final 10 games of the season. This is after losing 5 games in a row.

The Chiefs opened the season by beating the Houston Texans - score of 27 - 20. Though I felt that the Texans were facing desperate times as a franchise, I must admit my surprise in how they turned their season around. The Texans won 7 of their final 9 games to win the AFC South division.

Houston played through controversy and injuries at the quarterback position but it was their defense that righted the ship.

In the final 9 games, the Texans held opponents to under 18 points for 7 wins.

The Chiefs did the same in 8 of their final 10 winning games. Knowing we will witness two formidable defenses, what are the key points? The Chiefs defense is more explosive, particularly when it comes to the pass rush (Sacks) and Interceptions.

Brian Hoyer threw 7 INTS in 11 games, which on a percentage basis places him in the middle of the pack for starting quarterbacks. Where he does excel is that he throws nearly 2 TDs per game, which places him at the top third for starting quarterbacks.

Level of competition faced and performance against top teams do matter in determining which offense is more potent. Statistically the Texans offense rates better than the Chiefs, except in two key areas: points scored and rushing yards.

With the matchup being Kansas City At Houston (+3; 40) the numbers favor the Chiefs at .789.

So, I take the Chiefs (UNDER), either looking at a Chiefs blowout, or a grind out defensive struggle. Pick wisely, and check out the pick for the other playoff games.

Texans Playing With House Money! - NFL 2015 MNF 10

The Houston Texans can do no wrong tonight. They will literally be playing with house money. The current line is Houston At Cincinnati (-10.5; 46.5).

Even with a 3-5 record, the Texans are only a half-game behind the Indianapolis Colts for the AFC South division lead. A win tonight and they will be tied with a chance at making the playoffs. The two teams have a comparable strength of schedule for their remaining games, which means their meeting in Week 15 could decide the division.

A win tonight against the undefeated (8-0) Cincinnati Bengals can be the restart Houston needs. So far, the Texans have been inconsistent, partly due to key injuries, specifically to Running Back, Arian Foster.

The Texans are near last in NFL Rushing at 87.9 yards per game and 6th in Passing at 281.5 yards per game. Much of this has to do with falling behind early in games and having to abandon the run. There has been some inconsistency at the quarterback position with the benching of Brian Hoyer. Now that the Texans have released Ryan Mallett, the position is for Hoyer to stabilize or lose for good.



The Texans should approach tonight's game with reckless abandon -- Pass first, go for it on 4th down when reasonable and speed up the game, possibly with a hurry up offense. This might be the best strategy because the Bengals defense is currently second in the league in points (17.8). This is interesting because they are not Top 10 in any other major defensive category.

The Bengals allow opponents to rack up yards while killing lots of clock and then limiting them to Field Goals. On offense, their offensive talent can score quickly- 3rd in points (28.6) while being 14th in actual Third Downs Made.

Houston's defense suffered two weeks where they gave up over 40 points (48 and 44). If the Texans defense can give up at or below the 25.6 points per game it allows, then not losing by 11 points is very likely.

The question: can the Bengals score 28 points tonight against a Texans defense that has proven to be an enigma?

The numbers break Bengals (.789) and Texans (.211), but I'm going out on a limb because I think Hoyer has a chance to be real Texas gunslinger while the defense holds up.

So, I take Texans (UNDER).  Pick wisely, and come back for Thursday's picks and tonight we find out just how desperate the Texans are for a win.