NFL 2016 Week 10 TNF: Browns Ravens - Hedging the Straight Line

For tonight's game: 

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens--

1) Browns to lose by 12.5 points -- projected

2) Ravens to lose by 2.4 points -- projected

3) Opening Spread -- Ravens (-9.5)

4) Projected O/U 45.85

5) Actual O/U 44.00

Ravens: Masters of Close Finish - NFL 2015 MNF 12

The total absolute point difference for all 10 Baltimore Ravens game is 41, an average of 4.1 points. They have played 5 games in which the margin of victory was 3 points or less. Their biggest loss was by 8 points, on the road to the 9-2 Arizona Cardinals.

At 3-7 Baltimore is all but mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. Heading into tonight's matchup -  Baltimore At Cleveland (-4.5; 41.5) - the Ravens are without starting Quarterback Joe Flacco.

Matt Schaub is slated to start for Baltimore but for the Ravens, the defense continues to be the biggest concern. The Ravens are giving up 24.9 points per game and this Cleveland Browns team scored 33 points on them, in the game that all but doomed their season.

Oddly enough that was the only game the Browns won with Josh McCown at the helm. Cleveland is 2-8 for the season and their absolute point difference is 125, an average of 12.5. Both their wins were by 3 points.

The Browns have lost 5 games in a row while scoring 13.6 points per game. During that same stretch, the Ravens are 2-3 while scoring 20.6 per game but this was with Joe Flacco at quarterback.

The question: Can Baltimore's defense hold the Browns to under 20 points? In games that McCown started and finished, Cleveland averages 21.5 points.

There are no numbers to predict the winner but all simulations show the Baltimore Ravens to lose by no more than 2 points.

So, I take Ravens (UNDER).  Pick wisely, and come back for Thursday's picks and tonight we find out how close the Ravens are to being dominant next season.

Quoth the Raven “Nevermore.” - NFL 2015 MNF 7

Baltimore at Arizona (-10; 50) is the Ravens final trip out west for the year, where they are 0-3. Tonight we find out whether to say "Nevermore" to the Ravens' defensive identity.

Baltimore has yielded on average 27 points per game, en route to a 1-5 record that has them well out of the playoff picture. For this Monday Night Football matchup, they face the 4-2 Arizona Cardinals who are scoring 33.33 per game.

In amassing those offensive numbers, the Cardinals have not beaten a team with a .500 or better record. Overall, Arizona is giving up under 20 points a game.

So the question is whether the Ravens can score 23 points tonight. The Ravens average just shy of 24 points per game and have scored 23 or more 4 times in their 6 games.



The Cardinals should win this game but the 10 points are a bit much because the Ravens have not lost by more than 6 points all season.

So, I take Ravens (Under).  Pick wisely, and come back for Thursday's picks and enjoy this reading of The Raven by James Earl Jones.

Steelers, Michael Vick: Keep On Moving - NFL 2015 TNF 4

Michael Vick and the Pittsburgh Steelers can put the final nail in the Baltimore Ravens season. They really have to if they want to secure their own playoff lives.

The AFC North is the only NFL division that has had two different teams win the Super Bowl this current decade. Teams in this division beat up on each other and, in many ways, either toughen each other up for the playoffs or hurt the other's chances of winning the Super Bowl.

The Baltimore Ravens do not have the same level of defense as their heyday. Even with that fact, I never envisioned them as an 0-3 team. The only true chance they have tonight is that Michael Vick is the Steelers starting quarterback.

In many ways, this does not leave the Ravens with much of a chance, though they're favored. The plan is, as always, contain Vick in the pocket or line of scrimmage, forcing him to be a passer.

With the Ravens giving up nearly 300 Passing Yards Per Game and under 90 Rushing Yards Per Game, this will be a battle of wills.

Both teams have been more comfortable and productive in the passing game. That is where the advantage goes to Baltimore in light of the injury to Ben Roethlisberger.

The question tonight: Can Michael Vick attack the Baltimore secondary?

For scoring, the numbers has this game as toss-up, a two-point margin across both sides of the line, which means Ravens would not cover the 3 points in a win. The percentages has it: Pittsburgh Steelers (.789) and the Baltimore Ravens (.211).

So, I go with Steelers (+3; Under 44).  Pick wisely, come back for Sunday's picks and enjoy this playlist.

NFL 2015 Week 3 - EvenMoney's Game of the Week (Ravens vs Bengals)

Cincinnati at Baltimore  (-1.5; 45.5) promises to be a battle and has the potential to be a season ending game for the Baltimore Ravens. Losing this game would put them at 0-3 and push their division rival, the Cincinnati Bengals to 3-0.

The Bengals are Top 5 in Scoring, Passing and Rushing. Even if one makes the claim that they have faced two AFC West teams that don't have a Defense like the Ravens, the question then becomes how good is the Ravens Defense?

Last week, the Oakland Raiders aired them out, in a shootout game where the Ravens trailed by 10 points early in the first quarter. To their credit, the Ravens Offense woke up and surpassed the Raiders output.

The Bengals Defense has performed better across the board than the Ravens and the Bengals beat the Ravens twice last season.

With all that, why pick the Ravens, not only to win but to cover the Spread? Reason: the Ravens have not lost their first three games of any season under John Harbaugh with Joe Flacco at Quarterback.

Lastly, the numbers are Cincinnati Bengals win by 2 points (.333) or the Baltimore Ravens win by 5 points (.667)

I go with Ravens (Under). Pick wisely, come back for Thursday's pick and Enjoy this playlist.

NFL 2012, Week 3: Hedging the Straight-Line (Projections)

9/23/2012		Hedging the Straight-Line
WEEK 3		NFL 2012 Season
		by Guichard Cadet
Home		Away	Hedging		Straight Line	Projected Total Score
Carolina Panthers		New York Giants	2.05		8.77	46.0
Chicago Bears		St. Louis Rams	-9.80		-5.02	59.0
Cleveland Browns		Buffalo Bills	-5.61		0.67	59.0
Indianapolis Colts		Jacksonville Jaguars	5.70		0.96	64.0
Dallas Cowboys		Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4.07		10.54	66.0
Miami Dolphins		New York Jets	12.99		9.08	50.0
Minnesota Vikings		San Francisco 49ers	2.91		-0.56	50.0
New Orleans Saints		Kansas City Chiefs	-7.03		-10.33	47.0
Tennessee Titans		Detroit Lions	9.91		1.10	50.0
Washington Redskins		Cincinnati Bengals	-10.74		0.35	66.0
Arizona Cardinals		Philadelphia Eagles	-4.55		-5.94	47.0
San Diego Chargers		Atlanta Falcons	4.41		7.62	44.0
Denver Broncos		Houston Texans	4.34		-3.63	36.0
Oakland Raiders		Pittsburgh Steelers	1.61		0.60	47.0
Baltimore Ravens		New England Patriots	-6.84		-9.69	57.0
Seattle Seahawks		Green Bay Packers	0.70		6.54	47.0

Week 9, 2011: Steelers vs Ravens by EvenMoney

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens is our featured game for this week. Though there are two other AFC games that made a case to be the focus, these two teams face a similar situation, in that they can end the season with only one more loss. That loss would be to the Cincinnati Bengals, which they both play two more times. Even if either team loses to another team on their schedule, this week’s game will most likely determine the winner of the AFC Central division.

Add to that, barring a total collapse by two teams in the AFC East division, only 2 teams from the Central will make the playoffs. The Steelers lead the division but they got shellacked (35-7) by the Ravens in Week One. Another loss to this same team and with the risk of finishing in a tie, the Steelers must win this game. They happen to be catching the Ravens at a very good point of the season.

RAVENS VS. CARDINALS HIGHLIGHTS Week 8, 2011

Courtesy of 82PeRK

The Ravens won their last game, after trailing the Arizona Cardinals by 21 points and lost (the week before) to the Jacksonville Jaguars in a game that exposed their offensive ineptitude. The Ravens win because of their top-ranked (#1 overall, #3 passing and rushing) defense. The defense doesn’t give up points or too many yards, and places the offense in short-field positions to start drives. Unfortunately, QuarterBack Joe Flacco is having a down year (pretty much across the board), specifically in Pass Percentage (53.8%).

STEELERS VS. PATRIOTS HIGHLIGHTS Week 8, 2011

Courtesy of Slim47247

The Ravens take this unbalanced show on the road against a Steelers team that just finished outmuscling the New England Patriots. The Steelers have won four in a row and boast the league’s 2^nd ranked defense, which happens to be ranked 1st against the passing game. The key factor will be whether they can out-tough the Ravens.

DEFENSE

Sacks: Ravens 25; Steelers 20

INTs: Ravens 7; Steelers 2

Fumbles: Ravens 14; Steelers 3

OFFENSE

Sacks: Ravens 16; Steelers 25

INTs: Ravens 7; Steelers 6

Fumbles: Ravens 3; Steelers 2

Offensively, the teams are evenly matched in the punishment they dole out and are willing to take to protect the ball. But, defensively, the Ravens dish it out much more and are much more opportunistic.

NFL PICKS Week 9

Ravens (+3) Under (42) – Look for the Ravens to refocus, now that the competition is on their level.

11/6 8:30 ET At Pittsburgh -3 Baltimore 42

http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_lines.shtml @11/06/11 @ 9:45pm

Week 5, 2011: Jets vs Patriots by EvenMoney

New York Jets @ New England Patriots is a marquee game for two reasons: the other match-ups are bleh; and the rivalry has been balanced a bit in recent games. This game has much more consequence for the Jets; they lose and they can essentially kiss their playoffs hopes BYE BYE!

If the New York Jets lose this game, the best they can do the rest of the season is 6-5. If they win, even if they go 6-5, they would still be at 9-7 by season’s end. But beating the New England Patriots would build confidence which might push them to 7 or 8 more wins; thereby inking them to a 10 or 11-win season and the playoffs.

To even entertain this scenario, the Jets have to stop being overconfident, something that has filtered from Head Coach Rex Ryan. He’s gotten the credit when things went well, so he must get the blame when things stink! Simply put, Rex Ryan is doing a HORRIBLE JOB! He is stuck on one speed. That has always been the case with his defense and we saw opponents solve it last year by conceding that they will face 3^rd and Long, and in which case the Jets would blitz. First Down!!

Courtesy of lightyoshi

Coming off last year’s good playoff showing, the Jets are convinced that QuarterBack Mark Sanchez had taken that proverbially leap. So, the Jets offense has taken more risks this season – many of them unnecessary, particularly with Center Nick Mangold injured. Mangold is expected to play but that still does not mean the Jets will not be a pass-happy offense.

HIGHLIGHTS – New York Jets vs. Baltimore RavensWeek 4, 2011

Contrast their per-game averages this season to last year. This season the Jets are attempting 36.8 pass attempts to 23 rushes, while last year for the entire season they averaged 32.8 pass attempts to 33 rushes. Some of this lies on the fact they’ve often trailed in games.

On the defensive side, the Jets defense (ranked #8) has played fairly well but their rush defense has yielded 130 yards per game (YPG) and 6 TDs (ranked #27).  This does not bode well for them because the Patriots are ranked #1 on offense, #1 in passing and #9 in rushing. So, we can conclude that the Jets are not going to win the game on defense, since the Patriots score 33.75 PPG to the Jets’ 25.0 PPG.

HIGHLIGHTS – New England Patriots vs. OaklandRaiders Week 4, 2011

So, how can the Jets win? Both teams give up about 24 PPG, and the only way the Jets can keep the Patriots from scoring is by keeping them off the field. To do this, the Jets have to run the ball effectively, something they haven’t been able to do this season.

NFL PICKS Week 5

Jets (+7.5) Over (50) – The Patriots are the NFL’s worst defense, including on passing. Even if they win the game, they will give up 25 points to the Jets, which puts them at risk for a loss, at least not covering the spread.

10/9 4:15 ET At New England -7.5 NY Jets 50

http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_lines.shtml @10/08/11 @ 11:20pm

Week 4, 2011: Steelers vs Texans by EvenMoney

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Houston Texans is this week’s biggest game, in that it features two evenly matched teams that cannot afford a loss. Though the Texans can anticipate or hope their lone competitive division rival, the Tennessee Titans, will fade, the Steelers do not have that luxury. The Ravens will not wilt, and both Browns and Bengals have a shot at finishing at least .500. The latter means any misstep could knock the Steelers out of the division and/or wildcard race.

Courtesy of NflHighlightsTv

Pittsburgh has a relatively easy schedule where they can win 9 out of their remaining 13 games without having to go beyond their norm. But, the Ravens, who demolished the Steelers in Week 1 also benefit from such scheduling. This means Pittsburgh must defeat the Texans to keep pace or gain an advantage.

HIGHLIGHTS - Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Week 3, 2011

To beat the Texans, the Steelers are going to have to score points, lots of them – 24 or more; something the Steelers have not done this season. Pittsburgh’s average of 18PPG (points per game) is a bit misleading since they have played in two blowouts in which the losing team scored in single digits – one loss (7pts); one win (0 points).

In that win against the St. Louis Rams, they “took their foot off the gas” in the 3^rd quarter. Their other game, a win with a score of 23-20, showed them in a battle, but it was against the Colts who are without star QB Peyton Manning. Basically it comes down to not being able to pinpoint, just which performance is the real Pittsburgh Steelers.

This game against the Houston Texans will give us that answer because the Texans have put up 23+ points in all games. They have done this in three disparate contests – 4^th quarter fade against powerhouse New Orleans; up and down game versus Miami; and a shellacking of the hapless Colts.

HIGHLIGHTS - Houston Texans vs. New Orleans Saints Week 3, 2011

This game will come down to Texans offense battling Steelers defense, specifically the Passing game: 12^th ranked Texans versus 1^st ranked passing defense. Listed as “probable" to play, the Texans RB Ben Tate’s production is a given, especially since the Steelers run defense roughly yields what he produces (4.6 yards per rush; nearly 100 yards per game).

Even with Tate (listed as probale) in the lineup, can Matt Schaub maintain his average: 274 ypg on 65% passing, and 2:1 TD/INT ratio?

NFL PICKS Week 4

Steelers (+3.5) Under (45) – Texans might win but covering while putting up lots of points? Only elite teams do that against the Steelers.

10/2 1:00 ET At Houston -3.5 Pittsburgh 45

http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_lines.shtml @10/01/11 @ 11:05pm

Ravens vs Colts – Even Money’s NFL PLAYOFFS PICKS

Ravens vs Colts is the primetime matchup on Saturday for the NFL Playoffs Divisional Round between two teams whose identities reside on different ends of the NFL spectrum. The Indianapolis Colts are an offensive force with a steady defense, while the Baltimore Ravens dominate on defense and ask the offense not to lose the game.

The Ravens have shown that they can disrupt any offense, including the Colts who they lost to in NFL Week 10 – final score: 17-15.

FULL ARTICLE

Packers vs Cardinals – Even Money’s NFL PLAYOFFS PICKS

Packers vs Cardinals meet on Sunday in a NFC NFL Playoffs Wild Card game and is one of 3 matchups that feature teams who faced each other in NFL Week 17. For various reasons, the Green Bay Packers and Arizona Cardinals game is not the one you want to put your money on.

The Arizona Cardinals have Quarterback Kurt Warner and that along with his receivers are reasons enough to fear.

FULL ARTICLE

Ravens vs Patriots – Even Money’s NFL PLAYOFFS PICKS

Ravens vs Patriots meet on Sunday in an AFC NFL Playoffs Wild Card game that is a repeat of a battle they staged in NFL Week 4. In a normal year, neither of the teams with a bye would want to face the New England Patriots. But with a slew of reported injuries for Patriots players, the Ravens have a good chance of pulling an upset.

The Baltimore Ravens is still built on defense and the emergence of Ray Rice has allowed them to control the pace of games.

FULL ARTICLE