NFL 2016 Week 6 MNF Jets Cardinals - Hedging the Straight Line

For tonight's game: 

New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals--

1) Jets to win by 1.38 points -- projected

2) Cardinals to win by 7.17 points -- projected

3) Opening Spread -- Cardinals (-7.5 points)

4) Projected O/U 45.83

5) Actual O/U 46.50

NFL 2016 Week 5 RESULTS- Hedging the Straight Line

This Week’s Steady Performers:

1)  Buffalo Bills – won 5 out of 5 slots

2)  Arizona Cardinals – won 5 out of 5 slots

3)  New England Patriots – won the two projected and the O/U

4)  Green Bay Packers – won 5 out of 5 slots

NFL 2016 Week 5 TNF: Cards Niners - Hedging the Straight Line

For tonight's game: 
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers

1) Cardinals to win by 7 points -- projected

2) Niners to lose by 8 points -- projected

3) Opening Spread -- Cardinals -3.5

4) Projected O/U 44.14

5) Actual O/U 42.00

NFL 2015 NFC Divisional Round (Packers vs Cardinals)

The Green Bay Packers are battle-tested. During the regular season, they played 6 of the 12 teams that qualified for this year's NFL playoffs. They won 3 and lost 4 of these games. They won 7 of their other 9 games.

Tonight the Packers face the Arizona Cardinals, one of the playoff teams that beat them. It was the Packers' worst loss of the season, a 38-8 drubbing where neither team bothered to score in the fourth quarter. This late season game further convinced people the Cardinals could come out of the NFC, and made more doubters for the Packers.

Can Teddy Bridge The Gap? - NFL 2015 TNF 14

At no time does the saying "Defense wins championships" ring truer than this NFL season. Of the 12 teams that are best situated to make the playoffs, 10 of them are ranked tops in Defense. The two that are not are the division leaders for the NFC East and AFC South.

Though ranked fifth in points per game, the Minnesota Vikings defense is coming off a humbling experience, having given up 38 points this past Sunday. The Vikings also gave up 30 points in Week 11 against the Green Bay Packers.

Even before the injuries on the defensive side of the ball, coming into tonight's game, one could see what type of teams give the Vikings defense problems. The Vikings have only beaten one team that would qualify if the playoffs started today.

The Vikings are 1-4 when they give up 20 or more points. In today's NFL that type of offensive production does not work.

Minnesota has to score more and even though the focus is on Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, it is the Vikings' offensive approach that is outdated.



The days of NFL success being measured by having a dominant running back are over. Heading into Week 14:

• 2 running backs have reached 1000 yards
• 10 more running backs can reach 1000 yards for the season, provided they maintain their average weekly output
• of these 12 running backs, only 5 of their teams would qualify if the playoffs started today

Gone also are the days, where a quarterback throwing for 3000 yards meant the team's passing was on point.

• 12 quarterbacks have reached 3000 yards; only 4 of their teams would qualify if the playoffs started today
• 13 more quarterbacks can reach 3000 yards for the season, provided they maintain their average weekly output

Minnesota Vikings Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater (2398 yards) sits near the bottom of the 25 quarterbacks on pace to reach 3000 yards. Since this is only his second year in the NFL, there is much time for improvement.

With the playoffs on the horizon, an ailing defense and tonight's matchup - Minnesota At Arizona (-10.5; 46.5) - how soon can Teddy bridge the gap of a past NFL era to today's, where dominance is measured by throwing for 4000 yards?

Of the 21 quarterbacks on pace to throw for 4000 yards, 9 of their teams would qualify if the playoffs started today. This, in itself, is a great measuring stick because the other two quarterbacks and teams that fall short do so because of injuries.

Bridgewater has the opportunities and accuracy but needs to improve on his longer passes, particularly with a dominant running back, Adrian Peterson who leads the NFL in Rushing Yards.

The numbers point toward the Arizona Cardinals (.632) to win by 9 points, and that 3 out of the 4 times the Vikings lost, they did so by 17 or more points.

So, I take Cardinals (OVER) because I see Vikings getting 17 points - not enough to outduel Cardinals. Pick wisely, come back for Sunday's picks and until then get on up and take it to the bridge.

Can Green Bay Lead from the Middle of the Pack? NFL 2015 TNF 12

The Green Bay Packers are in a precarious position. They are competing for playoff positioning against two teams: the Minnesota Vikings and the Arizona Cardinals.

Each of these 3 teams have 3 "should win games" on their schedule and they face one another in the coming weeks. Arizona is one game ahead of Green Bay in the NFC, and Green Bay is tied with Minnesota in the NFC North division.

So, Chicago at Green Bay (-8, 45) is not the game for the Packers to try reverting to the style of play from the early part of this season when they won their first 6 games.

The Packers have to come to terms that they are a team that lost 3 games in a row. This past Sunday's win against the Minnesota Vikings put them back on the right track but they are not fully back. Gone should be, in their memory, the attitude they should win games by 10 points.

If the playoffs were to start today, 5 of the 7 teams the Packers beat would not qualify. The Packers defense gives up too many yards. During the first 6 games, they scored first and were able to control the pace. Most of the teams they beat did not feature high octane offenses, which meant the Packers defense could take risks to force TurnOvers.

In today's game, they face a Chicago Bears team that technically cannot hurt them on offense. The Bears are content to score 23 points and let their defense handle the rest.

The Packers beat the Bears 31 - 23 in this year's earlier matchup. The Bears defense has improved since early in the season. Their focus is to not allow big passing plays, which could be seen as a test for Aaron Rodgers.

Conversely, Green Bay can see this as an opportunity to put the past behind them and be content to mainly rush the ball. This will limit the amount of time their defense is on the field.

The numbers point to a win by Green Bay (.842) but not covering the spread, because the Packers are more comfortable in high scoring games. As such, look for that slim chance of a Bears victory (.158).

I take Bears (OVER) even though I see a Packers victory. Pick wisely, come back for Sunday's picks and until then watch out for the leader of the pack.

NFL 2015 Week 11 - EvenMoney's Game of the Week (Bengals vs Cardinals)

Cincinnati At Arizona (-4.5; 48) pits two teams that are currently in second place in their respective conferences. This game has major consequences for teams chasing these two division leaders.

By tip-off time, Arizona will know whether it has sole possession of second place in the NFC. Barring a major losing streak, Arizona locks up the NFC West with a win.

This matchup comes down to the Cardinals offense versus the Bengals defense. The Cardinals have scored over 24 points in 7 out of 9 games. The Bengals defense has not yielded over 24 points this season, and is first in the NFL in Points Allowed.

This is not smoke and mirrors, as the Bengals have done this against 7 teams that score 21+ points per game.



When two top teams square off, something's got to give. In this case, the question is whether the Bengals "bend but don't break" defense can work against the Cardinals.

The Cardinals lead the league with 36 Extra Point Attempts and have attempted 18 Field Goals. Can you really go against that much offensive firepower?

So, I take the Cardinals (OVER). Pick wisely, come back for Monday's pick and until enjoy two top teams try to take that next step.

Quoth the Raven “Nevermore.” - NFL 2015 MNF 7

Baltimore at Arizona (-10; 50) is the Ravens final trip out west for the year, where they are 0-3. Tonight we find out whether to say "Nevermore" to the Ravens' defensive identity.

Baltimore has yielded on average 27 points per game, en route to a 1-5 record that has them well out of the playoff picture. For this Monday Night Football matchup, they face the 4-2 Arizona Cardinals who are scoring 33.33 per game.

In amassing those offensive numbers, the Cardinals have not beaten a team with a .500 or better record. Overall, Arizona is giving up under 20 points a game.

So the question is whether the Ravens can score 23 points tonight. The Ravens average just shy of 24 points per game and have scored 23 or more 4 times in their 6 games.



The Cardinals should win this game but the 10 points are a bit much because the Ravens have not lost by more than 6 points all season.

So, I take Ravens (Under).  Pick wisely, and come back for Thursday's picks and enjoy this reading of The Raven by James Earl Jones.

NFL 2015 Week 1 - EvenMoney's Game of the Week (Saints vs Cardinals)

New Orleans at Arizona (-2.5; 48.5) could decide two divisions. Seattle's stranglehold on the NFC West means that Arizona cannot start the season losing a home game. Conceivably to win the division, the Arizona Cardinals will have to win 11 or more games.

On the other side of the ball, a New Orleans Saints' loss does not put their chance to win the NFC South at much risk, but a win means they have rebounded from last season's sub-par showing and strong enough to win the division.

The Over/Under hinges on what type of game we get. If the Saints can score early and get the Cardinals to take more risks on both sides of the ball, take the Over with the Saints winning. Otherwise, take the Cardinals and the Under, results that prove the NFC West will be contested.

I really like this challenge for the Cardinals and select them with the Under. That is why this game barely edges Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills as my game of the week.

NFL 2012, Week 4: Hedging the Straight-Line (Projections)

9/30/2012		Hedging the Straight-Line
WEEK 4		NFL 2012 Season
		by Guichard Cadet
Home		Away	Hedging		Straight Line	Projected Total Score
Baltimore Ravens		Cleveland Browns	-16.01		-14.15	50.1
Atlanta Falcons		Carolina Panthers	-12.53		-6.75	50.0
Buffalo Bills		New England Patriots	11.59		1.42	61.3
Detroit Lions		Minnesota Vikings	1.32		-4.25	52.8
Houston Texans		Tennessee Titans	-21.74		-9.77	51.7
Kansas City Chiefs		San Diego Chargers	7.20		-2.83	49.8
New York Jets		San Francisco 49ers	-3.45		-4.69	55.0
St. Louis Rams		Seattle Seahawks	6.78		5.31	42.4
Arizona Cardinals		Miami Dolphins	-11.76		-7.56	44.0
Denver Broncos		Oakland Raiders	-8.61		-6.23	49.8
Jacksonville Jaguars		Cincinnati Bengals	-3.76		10.73	53.1
Green Bay Packers		New Orleans Saints	-6.53		-1.13	52.0
Tampa Bay Buccaneers		Washington Redskins	-0.51		3.33	54.5
Philadelphia Eagles		New York Giants	4.34		11.00	47.5
Dallas Cowboys		Chicago Bears	6.93		7.58	45.3

Cardinals vs Saints – Even Money’s NFL PLAYOFFS PICKS

Cardinals vs Saints meet Saturday in a NFC NFL Playoffs Divisional game that has the Arizona Cardinals as a 7 point underdog to the New Orleans Saints. If you are picking Against The Spread that is an easy choice. But the beauty of the NFL Playoffs is its NCAA March Madness quality in that loser goes home for good – one and done.

The New Orleans Saints looked like a machine, a Terminator of a team as it ran roughshod across the league. The Saints seemed poise for an undefeated season until the Dallas Cowboys beat them.

FULL ARTICLE

Publish Post

Packers vs Cardinals – Even Money’s NFL PLAYOFFS PICKS

Packers vs Cardinals meet on Sunday in a NFC NFL Playoffs Wild Card game and is one of 3 matchups that feature teams who faced each other in NFL Week 17. For various reasons, the Green Bay Packers and Arizona Cardinals game is not the one you want to put your money on.

The Arizona Cardinals have Quarterback Kurt Warner and that along with his receivers are reasons enough to fear.

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Monday Night Football – Cardinals vs 49ers – Even Money’s NFL Picks

Cardinals vs 49ers is tonight’s match-up for NFL Picks Week 14 Monday Night Football. The Arizona Cardinals can clinch the NFC West division tonight with a win over the San Francisco 49ers. When last we saw the Cardinals, they kicked the Vikings all over the field and showed a renewed focus to end the season.

Last season, though the Cardinals made it to the Super Bowl, they limped their way through the December games. They also have that luxury this season because the NFC West is arguably the worst in the NFL. No other team is at or above .500.

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Even Money’s NFL PICKS Week 13– All Sunday Games, Vikings Full Speed

Vikings vs Cardinals is my other my marquee match-ups for NFL Picks Week 13. The question is whether Adrian Peterson and the Minnesota offense can run over the Arizona Cardinals.
Minnesota (-3.5), Over (48) – Vikings have one focus - the Superbowl - and they, along with Peterson, are full speed ahead.
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