Alex Smith, Time 4 Sum Aksion - NFL 2015 MNF 3

Tonight's Monday Night Football game of Kansas City At Green Bay (-5.5; 47.5) has all sorts of marketing angles, especially after both teams participated in two come-from-behind wins in their last game.

Unfortunately for the Kansas City Chiefs, they came out on the losing hand, mainly due to TurnOvers and the Referees extending the game in the last two minutes with some dubious calls.

The Chiefs have something major going for them -- their offense moved the ball well in both games, either in the Passing or Rushing game. Plus, their Defense has been solid.

The big question mark for the Chiefs is Alex Smith. Does he have what it takes to push to that next level?

On paper and just sheer visuals, Smith's counterpart, Aaron Rodgers is a better Quarterback. Rodgers's success is linked to a Green Bay Packers offensive system that calls on him to throw more and be accountable for all the mistakes, including taking a high number of Sacks.

For the Kansas City to beat Green Bay, they will need to score more by passing more.

The numbers favor the Packers to win by 7 points (.715) or the Chiefs to defy the odds and win by 4 points (.285).

So, I take Packers (Over).  Pick wisely, come back for Thursday's picks and enjoy this playlist.

Peyton's Last Rodeo - NFL 2015 TNF 2

This AFC West Division game will decide one thing: Are the Denver Broncos and Peyton Manning done as Super Bowl contenders? This has as much to do with a great showing by the Kansas City Chiefs and amazing comeback by the San Diego Chargers, as it does Peyton Manning and retirement.

The Denver Broncos offense never really got started against the Baltimore Ravens. This happens to many teams when they face the Ravens defense. But there was a bit more to it, a lack of sync, a lack of crispiness. Peyton Manning completed 60% of his passes for just 175 Yards and 1 INT.


They managed to pull out a win because it was a sloppy offensive game for both teams.

Heading into tonight's game, that is not something the Broncos can count on. Alex Smith and the Kansas City Chiefs demolished the Houston Texans in the first half and coasted to an easy victory. That is why Smith was under three hundred yards (243yds), while completing 66.7% of his passes, with 3 Touchdowns, ending with a QB Rating of 118.6.

The current lines are Kansas City (-3; 42.5) while I have the numbers as two strong teams where the Broncos can win by 6 or the Chiefs can win by 3, and the Over at 45. In a high scoring affair at Arrowhead Stadium and short week for both teams, I go Chiefs (Over).

Pick wisely, come back for Sunday's picks and Enjoy this playlist.

Week 6, 2011: Lions vs 49ers by EvenMoney

San Francisco 49ers @ Detroit Lions is this week’s spotlight game, in a week with at least 8 other matchups we could have chosen. To think in Weeks 1 and 2 when we covered both these teams, we did so to lay down the gauntlet and they both responded. In Week 1 the Lions won and have maintained that pace - currently at 5-0. In Week 2, though the 49ers lost, the result was a Push (at 3 points) and similar to the Detroit Lions, they sit atop their division (with a 4-1 record).

This week’s game means the same thing to both teams, in that, any misstep, doubt could creep in and give their closest division competitor a chance to wrest control out of their hands. This is more of a concern for the Lions because the defending Super Bowl Champions – the Green Bay Packers – are also 5-0. The two teams will play 2 times, and if they should split, then the overall record and record within the conference will be the key factors in which team is crowned.

Courtesy of ZMRinzler

For the 49ers, they have a two-game division lead over the Seattle Seahawks. As we stated before, the NFC West will only send one team to the playoffs. Avoid any sort of losing streak, a playoff slot is theirs. A win against the Lions (pretty much) guarantees the 49ers, a 10-win season; within the NFC West, that is a playoff lock. A loss will tilt them to 9 wins or less, something the Seahawks could achieve.

The two teams are evenly matched in output: Scoring PPG (Lions 31.8; 49ers 28.4), and Defense (Points Against – Lions 17.8; 49ers 15.6). The difference is how each team goes about scoring. For the Detroit Lions, it’s an all-out air assault that has them Top 10 in Attempts, Completions, Percentage, Yardage and TDs (#3).

HIGHLIGHTS – Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears Week 5, 2011

The Lions are doing this behind the arm and on the shoulders of QuarterBack Matthew Stafford who is just 13 yards shy of 300 per game, and has a 3:1 TD/INT ratio.

Contrast this with the 49ers who are winning because of their Rushing defense and offense. They have relegated QuarterBack Alex Smith to a ball-control, manager type. Smith is ranked 29^th out of NFL QB’s in Attempts (126) and YPG (193). He’s more prone to take the Sack (14) than throw an INT (1). So, how are the 49ers producing offense? Answer: Frank Gore (80 YPG) and Kendall Hunter (27 YGG).

HIGHLIGHTS – San Francisco 49ers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Week 5, 2011

As a team, the 49ers are ranked 7^th in Rushing Attempts and 32^nd in Passing Attempts. They take this imbalanced offense into Detroit to face a Lions team that is balanced on defense. Their Pass defense is superior to their Rush defense, and it is tested the most by opponents. Though the Lions Rusing defense gives up a lot of yards per game and per carry, they’ve only given up 1 TD all season.

NFL PICKS Week 6

49ers (+4) Under (46) – Comparison of common opponent as well as the quality of opponents; the Lions are coming off a Monday Night Football appearance; and that extra point where a Field Goal doesn’t do it ATS (against the spread).

10/16 1:00 ET At Detroit -4 San Francisco 46

http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_lines.shtml @10/15/11 @ 10:00pm

Week 2, 2011: Cowboys vs 49ers by EvenMoney

Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers is a major test for both teams and has playoff implications. Yes, this early in the season! The NFC East will send two teams and the NFC West will only send one. A win over Dallas puts the Niners on pace for at least a 9-win season, which should be enough to win the NFC West.

Contrast that to Dallas which needs at least 10 wins to even think of claiming a Wild Card spot. The Cowboys tossed away a win in the final minutes in Week 1 against the Jets. They showed an ability to pass the ball with Tony Romo going for 342 yard on 64% completion. For the most part, the Cowboys handled the Jets’ various blitz packages, including on 3^rd & long.

HIGHLIGHTS - Dallas Cowboys vs New York Jets Week 1, 2011

The Cowboys defense played well. They stifled the Jets’ run game and matched the Jets’ 4 sacks. Dallas lost the game on penalties, turnovers and Special Teams.

On the other side of the field, they will face a 49ers team that had an impressive defensive outing against the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks won the NFC West in 2010 but with only a 7-9 record, which demonstrates why this division is there for the taking and will likely only send one team to the playoffs.

Courtesy of frostwd

For the 49ers, QuarterBack Alex Smith had an efficient outing where he completed 75% of his 20 passes. The defense set the pace early by holding the Seahawks scoreless for the first half, as the Niners went on to lead 16-0 at the half. And, the Special Teams converted on two big plays (kick and put returns) for touchdowns to squelch a Seahawks comeback with the score at 19-17.

HIGHLIGHTS - San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks Week 1, 2011

Picking this game is about determining the quality of opponent that the 49ers faced last week. Dallas showed they could control the ball and pass against a highly-touted Jets defense. Both teams have to answer these questions:

***Since neither team showed a running game in Week 1, can both QBs maintain their efficiency?

***Or, will Special Teams once again play a major role?

NFL PICKS Week 2

Cowboys (-3) Over (42) – Felix Jones will establish himself, as Dallas dominates time of possession.

9/18 4:05 ET Dallas -3 At San Francisco 42

http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_lines.shtml @09/17/11 @ 9:40pm