NFL 2015 Week 16 - EvenMoney's Game of the Week (Patriots vs Jets)

New England At NY Jets (-3; 45) has strong playoff implications for both teams. A win for the New England Patriots mean they clinch home field throughout the playoffs. A New York Jets loss does not eliminate them from the playoffs.

This matchup is a chance at redemption for a Jets team that took a lead into the fourth quarter when these two teams met in Week 7. New York led until halfway through the fourth quarter, and then the defense showed the gaps and tendencies that would be exposed in three of the next four games.

Sitting at 5-5, with 4 losses in the AFC division, the Jets have turned their season around. Winners of their last 4 games, the Jets have found a great balance on both sides of the ball. During this stretch, the Jets have averaged 27.5 points, while giving up 16 points.

Though the level of competition was not near what they will face today against the Patriots, the same could be said of the three losses the Jets had after losing to the Patriots.

After beating the Jets in Week 7, the Patriots went on to win 4 straight games. Just as they looked to be streaking toward another undefeated season, the Patriots lost two games in a row. They have since won two straight games but the spectre of dominance is not the same.

The Patriots have battled injuries to key players and are likely resting some to avoid injuries this late in the season. Even with these injuries, the Patriots are still good for their season low mark of 20 points.

The question for this game lies on the Patriots defense, which is giving up less than 20 points over the entire season. This average is a hard split where 7 games fall above that scoring mark, and 7 do not. This says more about level of competition than it does about the Patriots defense's consistency. 

The New York Jets have scored 20+ points in 10 of their 14 games - 8 Wins, 2 Losses. Their defense has held opponents to 20 points or less in 8 games -- all wins.

With the points, this game is a toss-up, a push, where the even money goes to the home team, the Jets  (.526).

So, I take the Jets (UNDER), either looking at a defensive battle or blowout. Pick wisely, come back for Monday's pick and until then watch to see who's the winner.

NFL 2015 Week 15 - EvenMoney's Game of the Week (Broncos vs Steelers)

Denver At Pittsburgh (-6.5; 45.5) is about respect and lack of it. Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers have scored 30+ points in five straight games. They are 4-1 in these games and have put themselves in position to control their own playoff destiny.

If the Steelers win all three games or have the same number of victories as the New York Jets, they make the playoffs and the Jets do not. This is complicated NFL tie-breaker math that will play itself out in the coming weeks, if necessary.

In the same time span, the Denver Broncos have only once scored 30 points, an overtime victory over the at-the-time undefeated New England Patriots. The Broncos are 3-2 over this stretch and 3-1 since backup Quarterback Brock Osweiler replaced Peyton Manning as the starter.

The Broncos are one victory away from clinching a playoff spot but they still have to worry about the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs have won eight straight. If both teams finish with 11 wins, then the complicated NFL tie-breaker math will determine the division winner.

The numbers point to a Steelers (.842) victory and cover.  For this game, the question is whether the Broncos defense can hold the Steelers to 20 points or less.

So, I take the Steelers (UNDER) because Steelers even though their defense is up and down, the offense is operating on a high level. Pick wisely, come back for Monday's pick and until then watch two top AFC teams earn their respect.

NFL 2015 Week 14 - EvenMoney's Game of the Week (Bills vs Eagles)

On the surface, this game looks like it's for the birds. No, not the Eagles, but not worth a serious discussion. With so many teams vying for top spots in their conference or holding on to their Wild Card slots, how does Buffalo At Philadelphia (PK; 47) rise to the top?

In a nutshell, it is the mystery of not knowing which team will show up. Each team has one shot to make it into the playoffs. Though losing this game does not mathematically eliminate them, it pretty much shuts the door on the Buffalo Bills. For the Eagles, a loss has the most impact only if the New York Giants and Washington Redskins win this NFL Week 14.

At 5-7, the Philadelphia Eagles are tied with those two teams for the lead in the NFC East. In a season where no team from the division is playing like they want to win it, the Eagles' season took a sharp turn when they lost to three non-playoff bound teams from NFL Weeks 9 to 11.

If not for an injury to Eagles starting Quarterback Sam Bradford, we're probably not having this conversation. Bradford got injured in the third quarter, with the Eagles leading the Miami Dolphins. Mark Sanchez came in to replace him and the Eagles went on to lose. In the next two losses, the Eagles defense gave up 45 points each game, while the offense struggled.

Last week, upon Bradford's return, the Eagles pulled off an improbable win, on the road, against the New England Patriots. Still, let's not act like the Eagles were bona fide contenders before the Bradford injury.

After 8 games, they were a 4-4 team, just like today's opponent. The Buffalo Bills also went through losses with their backup quarterback manning the help. For them it was a two-game skid, with one loss a game they likely would have lost with their starter.

During those two games, the Bills defense gave up 34 points each game. The Bills are 6-1 when the opponent scores 21 points or less- the lone loss came at the hands of the New England Patriots, who also scored the most - 40 points - against them this season.

The Bills are 0-5 when the opponents scores 24 or more points. In the 9 games, that Bradford has started and completed, the Eagles have scored 24+ points 6 times. They won 5 of those games.

This match-up is listed as a "pick-em", as in go with mainly what you believe. The numbers are overwhelming that the Bills (.895) will win. The lack of faith is on an Eagles defense that has given up 27+ points in 5 out of their last 6 games.

So, I take the Bills (UNDER) with the outlook that Bills and LeSean McCoy will dictate style of play. Pick wisely, come back for Monday's pick and until then watch which team's season is one for the birds.

NFL 2015 Week 13 - EvenMoney's Game of the Week (Jets vs Giants)

"[D]uck what you heard - who's the best in New York,

Fulfilling fantasies without that [fairy] Mr. Roarke?"

With so many quality matchups this Sunday, the early marketing value is on this clash between the two New York metropolitan area teams, where a loss by either dooms a chance at the playoffs.

For the Giants, the reality is that they must win, at least, 4 out of their last 5 games to finish 9-7 for the season. This is only the starting point because they also need the Washington Redskins to finish no better than 9-7.

For the Jets, they too must finish no less than 9-7 but realistically they too must win 4 out of their last 5 games. A 10-6 record will likely get them into the AFC's tie-breaking discussion.

The mathematical possibilities for both teams are too many to ponder, so the best bet is to focus on this game. 

Historically, the New York Giants are the best NFL team in New York. At the same time, fan adulation is not as lopsided as in Major League Baseball where the New York Yankees dominate the landscape when contrasted to the New York Mets.

For this year, at this moment: Who's the best in New York? The Jets have a better record by one game, but is that enough? The Giants can win their division and make the playoffs with an equal or worse record. The Jets cannot.

Their offensive output is nearly identical with the slight edge going to the Giants mainly because of Points Scored, while the Jets have the superior running game.

Defensively, the two teams are polar opposites. The Jets are very conventional, besting the Giants on points and yardage given and Sacks. The Giants are way better on Interceptions and Fumbles.

The better quarterback conversation is a landslide for the Giants' Eli Manning in all passing categories, while the Jets' Ryan Fitzpatrick can make more happen with his legs and enjoys better pass protection.

Though the Jets have a better starting Receiver tandem in Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker, in this game against secondaries that have struggled, Manning has a better corps of receivers to target, particularly Odell Beckham, Jr.

On the offensive side, the game comes down to the Jets' Chris Ivory, the current best running back in New York. The key reasons are:

• not falling behind early -- only 1 win when trailing at halftime
• 0-3 when Fitzpatrick throws 2 or more Interceptions
• 1-5 when opponent scores 22+ points

Basically, the Jets need Chris Ivory involved throughout for offensive balance in their play calling and to keep their defense off the field because the Giants:

• have scored 24 points in 8 of their 11 games
• 1-5 when opponent scores 24+ points
• 4-1 when opponent scores less than 22 points

With the game being NY Jets At NY Giants (+2.5; 46.5),  the numbers favor the Giants (.842) to win by 2 points simply because the Giants have not had problems scoring.

So, I take the Giants (UNDER) but with Ivory having a big game and helping Jets to a narrow victory. Pick wisely, come back for Monday's pick and until then who do you think is the best in New York?

NFL 2015 Week 12 - EvenMoney's Game of the Week (Bucs vs Colts)

Tampa Bay At Indianapolis (-3; 46.5) is a must win game for both teams, yet only one team risks being eliminated from playoff contention with a loss.

Both teams are 5-5 but the Indianapolis Colts are tied for first place in the AFC South. The Colts must win because, after today's matchup, their remaining schedule features their three division rivals. All three opponents are vying for the division title. The Colts face two other AFC teams in play for the Wild Card.

For the Tampa Bay Buccaneers: lose this game and they can conceivably pack it in for the year. Though they will not be mathematically eliminated, they would be reliant on too many scenarios - losses - by other teams.

After this game, the Bucs too will face their three division rivals. By the time they face the Chicago Bears, the Bucs will either be out of playoff contention or have more control of their destiny.

Instead of getting too deep into each of today's teams scenarios, let's just say I see the Colts going 2-3 after today, and the Bucs 3-2.

For today's matchup, it really depends on which Bucs offense shows up, specifically Quarterback Jameis Winston. He is experiencing the normal adjustment that rookies face. Winston has thrown 15 TouchDowns and 9 Interceptions. The TouchDown numbers are spiked due to last week's game versus the Philadelphia Eagles when he threw 5 TDs. Otherwise he would have thrown almost as many TDs as INTs.

The good fortune for the Bucs is that they are second in the NFL in Rushing yards. They will face a Colts defense that is near the bottom in Passing and Rushing Yards, while giving up 24.8 points game.

Facing the Colts, scoring 21 points should be a given for the Bucs, who are 4-1 when their defense holds a team to under 21 points.

The question: Can Tampa Bay hold Indianapolis to under 21 points?

The Indianapolis Colts have scored 21+ points in 7 of their 10 games. With backup Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck at the helm, the Colts are 3-0 and he will start in place of the injured Andrew Luck.

What does this mean for the Bucs? It means Tampa Bay should take the air out of the ball and limit the Colts' possessions because in a high scoring game, the odds are with the Colts.

So, I take the Bucs (OVER). Pick wisely, come back for Monday's pick and until then see whether the Colts' home becomes Buc'town.

NFL 2015 Week 11 - EvenMoney's Game of the Week (Bengals vs Cardinals)

Cincinnati At Arizona (-4.5; 48) pits two teams that are currently in second place in their respective conferences. This game has major consequences for teams chasing these two division leaders.

By tip-off time, Arizona will know whether it has sole possession of second place in the NFC. Barring a major losing streak, Arizona locks up the NFC West with a win.

This matchup comes down to the Cardinals offense versus the Bengals defense. The Cardinals have scored over 24 points in 7 out of 9 games. The Bengals defense has not yielded over 24 points this season, and is first in the NFL in Points Allowed.

This is not smoke and mirrors, as the Bengals have done this against 7 teams that score 21+ points per game.



When two top teams square off, something's got to give. In this case, the question is whether the Bengals "bend but don't break" defense can work against the Cardinals.

The Cardinals lead the league with 36 Extra Point Attempts and have attempted 18 Field Goals. Can you really go against that much offensive firepower?

So, I take the Cardinals (OVER). Pick wisely, come back for Monday's pick and until enjoy two top teams try to take that next step.

NFL 2015 Week 10 - EvenMoney's Game of the Week (Patriots vs Giants)

New England At NY Giants (+7; 54.5) provides one of two remaining chances for the Patriots not to have an undefeated season. To beat the New England Patriots, a team needs a veteran quarterback who can challenge them. The next time for this to occur will be against the Denver Broncos in Week 12.

There were two previous weeks (1 and 6) when the Patriots faced teams with quarterbacks that posed such a threat. Since then, the Patriots have been able to bomb away and run through teams, knowing no matter the points they give up on defense, their offense will have a chance to surpass it.

The New York Giants have a veteran, championship level quarterback in Eli Manning, who is Top 5 to Top 10 in Completions, Attempts, Comp. Percentage, and Passing TouchDowns. Contrast this with the Giants being 24th in the league in Rushing at under 100 Yards per game and ZERO TouchDowns.



For the Giants to be competitive, Eli needs major help from the defense. Though much maligned for lapses of bad play and giving up 25.1 points per game, the Giants defense is Top 3 in Interceptions and Forced Fumbles.

Still they are ranked last in Sacks and hope the return of Jean Pierre-Paul provides immediate help. New York will need an effective pass rush to control Tom Brady and a Patriots offense that has scored 27+ points each game, averaging 34.5ppg and besting opponents by 16.63ppg.

Before taking that to the bank, do note that the large margins of victory has come against 4 teams with a combined record of 10-22. In the other 4 games, New England won by an average of 7.25 points.

That is not to say that Tom Brady is not having a superb season where he is Top 5 to Top 10 in 8 leading categories.

The question is simple: can the Giants defense hold the Patriots to 27 points or under? If so, then the Giants have won 4 out of 5 of games when their defense holds up.

So, I take the Giants (UNDER). Pick wisely, come back for Monday's pick and until then watch two Super Bowl winning teams and quarterbacks give you a glimpse of the near future.

NFL 2015 Week 9 - EvenMoney's Game of the Week (Packers vs Panthers)

Green Bay At Carolina (+2.5; 46) could decide whether the race to the NFC playoffs has intrigue or becomes humdrum. For it to remain riveting, Green Bay has to lose. 

From there, it does not matter the outcome of the matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and the St. Louis Rams because 10 teams will fully be in play for the Wild Card.

A week ago, before the loss to the Denver Broncos, the Packers looked unbeatable, as if this season could go down as one talked about for generations. They had won 6 games by 10.5 points. They had a balanced team, where the running game paced them and helped them maintain leads.



Even Quarterback Aaron Rodgers was in on the act (160 yards in 6 games), while throwing it on everybody, averaging 8.16 Yard per Attempt , heading for roughly 4,000 yards for the season. Was Denver's defense the driving force to Rodgers's poor 3.5 Yards per Attempt performance? Or was it something that had been looming but hidden?

Mike Tyson famously and accurately quipped, "Everyone has a plan 'til they get punched in the mouth." Until facing the Broncos, Green Bay had scored first in all of its games, even the come from behind win against the Seattle Seahawks.

The Carolina Panthers are more of a team that builds momentum as the game progresses. They are as likely to fall behind by 3 points as they are to take a 7 point lead.

Though the underdog, the Panthers have more than a puncher's chance to beat the Packers back into the playoff pack; they have Cam Newton.

Using the previous metrics, through 6 games, Cam was on his way to 3400 yards for the season and had 245 yards rushing.

Third in the NFL, Cam Newton averages 13 yards per completion and this is not due to his receivers' YAC (yard after catch). The Panthers use long passes to open up the running game and they lead the NFL in Rushing, where Green Bay's defense is near the bottom.

This is a toss-up for the win, with Carolina getting the slight nod because they are at home. The numbers break as Panthers (.526) to win by 7 points, and Packers (.474) to win by 5 points.

So, I take the Panthers (OVER). Pick wisely, come back for Monday's pick and until then watch which team triumphs.

NFL 2015 Week 8 - EvenMoney's Game of the Week (Giants vs Saints)

After their 0-3 start, the Saints have been rising to the top, winning three of their last four games. A win today and the New Orleans Saints are in the race for a Wild Card playoff spot.

The Saints will need help from other teams, mainly the Chicago Bears beating the Minnesota Vikings. After today's game, New Orleans finish the year with a soft schedule where they can go 6-2.

Today's game: New York at New Orleans (-3; 50) is a must-win for any of this to matter. For the Saints, it is hard to pinpoint what has led to the recent wins. In the past four games, they have scored 5 more points while giving up 3 less points. Yet, no one area of the game jump out as the catalyst for this turnaround.

Chances are it is momentum gained from their win against the Atlanta Falcons; the inverse of how they started the season.



The New York Giants have not gotten traction this season. Plagued with injuries at the Wide Receiver position and no consistent running game, Quarterback Eli Manning is being asked to do more.

Manning has been steady but the Giants go as their defense does -- giving up 22 points per game. A team that scores 24 or more points has a 75% chance to beat the Giants.

Today's question: Can the New Orleans Saints muster enough offense to beat the New York Giants?

The Saints have scored 26 or more in their 3 wins, and average 19 in their 4 losses.

This is a toss-up for the win with Saints getting the slight nod. For our purposes, the numbers break to Giants (.895) to win by 2 points and Saints (.105) to lose by 2 points.

So, I take the Giants (UNDER). Pick wisely, come back for Monday's pick and continue rising to the top.

NFL 2015 Week 7 - EvenMoney's Game of the Week (Vikings vs Lions)

The Minnesota Vikings are, at the moment, in a four team race for the Wild Card. Today's matchup - Minnesota at Detroit (-1; 45) - starts a four-game stretch of must win games.

After these games, the Vikings will then face four NFC teams with playoff possibilities. Now that we have the big picture, Minnesota's current focus is a Detroit Lions team that won its first game last week.

The Lions have underachieved. Though they score 20 points per game, they are more likely to score 17 points while giving up 28.7 points per game.

Adrian Peterson is questionable for the game, which would impact the Vikings' ability to take advantage of Detroit's weak defense. In their previous matchup (Week 2), the Vikings won 26-16 and Peterson rushed for 134 yards.

To counter, can Matthew Stafford challenge the Vikings defense? Stafford has thrown 10 TDs and 9 INTs, and the Vikings defense is vulnerable to both the passing and running game. Theirs is a bend but don't break defense -- second in the NFL, giving up only 16.6 points per game.

The numbers break to Vikings (.842) to win by 2 points and Lions (.158) to lose by 9 points.

So, I take the Vikins (UNDER). Pick wisely, come back for Monday's pick and enjoy this playlist/mix.

NFL 2015 Week 6 - EvenMoney's Game of the Week (Redskins vs Jets)

The New York Jets can decide their playoff fate by beating the Washington Redskins in today's matchup. A win today and then going, at least, .500 for the rest of the season puts the Jets in control of their chances for a Wild Card spot in the AFC.

Coming into the season, only the most die-hard of fans would have predicted a chance to have a 4-1 record after today's game. With the entire league splitting into a top tier of six teams and another filled with inconsistent wanderers, the Jets Defense have put them in a position to succeed.

Faced with the absence of their starting Quarterback, New York's defense leads the league in Points Against (13.8) and ranks Top 10 in other key defensive categories (Yards, Passing, Rushing and Interceptions).

This bodes well against the Washington Redskins, who only score 19.4 points per game. Both teams run a balanced offense but have had more success Rushing the ball.

Washington's losses have  come late in the game, mainly due to turnovers (Interceptions). The game will be decided by which team's Defense and Special Teams perform better.

This gives the Jets the edge to win the game but the line is currently at Washington Redskins at New York Jets (-8; 40). This movement from the starting line at -5.5 is due to injuries to key Redskins players, mainly Offensive Lineman Trent Williams and Running Back Matt Jones.

Without these factors, this was a toss-up game. With them, the numbers break to Jets (.368) and Redskins (.632).

So, I take the Redskins (UNDER). Pick wisely, come back for Monday's pick and enjoy this playlist/mix.

NFL 2015 Week 5 - EvenMoney's Game of the Week (Seahawks vs Bengals)

Of all the intriguing matchups for NFL 2015 Week 5, Seattle Seahawks at Cincinnati Bengals  (-3; 44) promises to be the game to decide two divisions and Super Bowl contention. If the Bengals win, barring a major injury, then the other teams in the AFC North are essentially playing for a Wild Card spot.

This win would put the Bengals at 5-0 and potentially 3 games ahead of the next team, if the Pittsburgh Steelers lose this week. Cincinnati has to keep pace with the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos, when it comes to playoff home-field advantage in the AFC.

With the Seahawks having represented the NFC in the past two years, this is the Bengals' first true test for that next level. The prior wins -- all AFC contests -- have determined whether they should be in this discussion.

This game decides whether or not they remain a viable threat to play in the Super Bowl. For Seattle, sleep time is over. The Seahawks have been sleepwalking through the season like a team that ate too much of a carb-filled meal.

So far, nothing has knocked the chip off their shoulder, the one they think guarantees them another Super Bowl appearance. To their defense, the Seahawks have not had a reason to wake up. Yes, they faced the Green Bay Packers earlier this season. In all honesty, that game meant much more to Green Bay and the late game execution confirms this.

Seattle has taken two early season losses in stride and they've turned it on against two underwhelming teams. The two wins were at HOME and the two losses AWAY.

Today's game: AWAY. It is also the first inter-conference game for both teams. It is not a game that one can say defense will matter more than offense, and vice versa.

This will simply be a hitting game, a playoff level intensity that the Bengals have faced twice this season -- San Diego Chargers and Baltimore Ravens. Both times, the Cincinnati Bengals got off to early scoring starts and held on for victories. A better way of framing it: the Bengals play all four quarters; the Seahawks, not so much.

At the end of the day, it comes down the passing game. Which quarterback will have more success? More precisely: can Russell Wilson expose what has been the Cincinatti Bengals weak spot?

I rarely call PUSH but with the line at -3 and a game likely to be 27-24. Which team do you think wins by a Field Goal?

I have the numbers as Seattle (.737) to win by 7 points, and the Bengals (.263) to win by 2 points.

Under those terms, I take the Seahawks (Over 44).

Pick wisely, come back for Monday's pick and Enjoy this playlist/mix.

NFL 2015 Week 4 - EvenMoney's Game of the Week (Giants vs Bills)

NY Giants at Buffalo  (-6; 46) means more to the Buffalo Bills season, simply because the Bills have to keep pace with the New England Patriots.

The Patriots have won the AFC East 11 out of the past 12 seasons. The lone season - 2008 - they did not win it was due to a tie-breaker.

The goal is not so much that the Bills have to win the division, but that they have to win 11 games in order to be in competition for a Wild Card spot in the conference.

On the other hand, the Giants' NFC East division will likely take 10 wins to win and all the teams are and will continue to be bunched up throughout the season.

A win for the Giants will place them at 2-2 and a possible three-way tie for first place. A loss will, at most, put them 2 games behind the division leader, only if the Dallas Cowboys win today.

Playoff picture notwithstanding, this is a fantastic offensive matchup. At the end of the day, either or both teams would have answered whether it's for real. Do opponents have to worry about 24 points each time they face them?

The Buffalo Bills have scored 27 or more points all 3 games this season, including in the loss to the Patriots. In that game, they trailed by 24 points and scored 19 of their 32 points in the fourth quarter.

In the other two games, the Bills have scored, at least, 24 points in the first three quarters. This is the challenge for the New York Giants who have scored 20 or less in the first three quarters in their 3 games.

With the Giants defense giving up 24 points a game and to lesser offenses, I take the Bills (Over 46).

Pick wisely, come back for Thursday's pick and Enjoy this playlist/mix.

NFL 2015 Week 3 - EvenMoney's Game of the Week (Ravens vs Bengals)

Cincinnati at Baltimore  (-1.5; 45.5) promises to be a battle and has the potential to be a season ending game for the Baltimore Ravens. Losing this game would put them at 0-3 and push their division rival, the Cincinnati Bengals to 3-0.

The Bengals are Top 5 in Scoring, Passing and Rushing. Even if one makes the claim that they have faced two AFC West teams that don't have a Defense like the Ravens, the question then becomes how good is the Ravens Defense?

Last week, the Oakland Raiders aired them out, in a shootout game where the Ravens trailed by 10 points early in the first quarter. To their credit, the Ravens Offense woke up and surpassed the Raiders output.

The Bengals Defense has performed better across the board than the Ravens and the Bengals beat the Ravens twice last season.

With all that, why pick the Ravens, not only to win but to cover the Spread? Reason: the Ravens have not lost their first three games of any season under John Harbaugh with Joe Flacco at Quarterback.

Lastly, the numbers are Cincinnati Bengals win by 2 points (.333) or the Baltimore Ravens win by 5 points (.667)

I go with Ravens (Under). Pick wisely, come back for Thursday's pick and Enjoy this playlist.